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China IS in a Great Depression. The government is making the numbers seem a little bit better, but with 21% official youth unemployment rate - definitely highe

China IS in a Great Depression. The government is making the numbers seem a little bit better, but with 21% official youth unemployment rate - definitely higher since netizens have found that only 20% of this year's graduate has secured jobs, and 50% - 70% reduction in real estate listing prices, when real estate is 30% of China's economy and how local governments mostly gets funded, we will see retroactively that China entered its Great Depression in 2022.

alephnerd 3y ago
Chinese youth unemployment in 2023 is roughly comparable to the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) in the 2010s. Those countries still held around a 2-3% GDP growth rate. Also, the bearish 2-3% growth rate estimation was derived independently of the PRC government - it was reached by both Blackstone and the IMF. None of this is to say there isn't an economic malaise/recession in the PRC circa 2023, but honestly it's playing out the same way a similar growth slowdown happened in Mexico, Türkiye, South Korea, Thailand, and Brazil in the 2000s when those countries hit similar economic metrics to China in the early 2020s.
- marianatom 3y ago
  1.) China's unemployment rate is no where near comparable to europe's. China considers one employed if one has worked at least ONE hour a week. or if their family have land to farm. 2.) There's nothing comparable to what's happening to China right now, except for the Russia sanctions, where an entire economic engine (export, 25% of GDP) is being ripped out or shut down, by companies pulling factories out of China 3.) Blackstone and IMF have been plenty wrong before. also, there's no chance they don't at least use some part of the data from the Chinese's National office of statistics.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Tbh, this is a weird hill for you to die on. The PRC is absolutely in a recession. No one is arguing against that, but to say a recession will lead to a 50% collapse in GDP is absolutely ludicrous. The only middle income countries that have seen such a dramatic collapse in GDP are those in an active state of war like Ukraine, Syria, or Lebanon.
    - quad_eye_oh 3y ago
      Property values are something like 70% of China's wealth, but only 30% of production. A GDP drop of 15% is very conceivable. I think it's likely GP is wrong about the 50% figure, but if they were correct the CCP would never publish the number for fear of scaring away foreign investment. So it may be worth looking into more deeply.
goodbyesf 3y ago
> China IS in a Great Depression. You can't have either the US or China in a great depression without it taking everyone down with them. If china is in a great depression, then so is the rest of the world. If china is in a great depression, apple stock would have cratered as would most indices around the world. Go read about the 1929 stock crash. Money front runs economic depressions. Meaning wall street will let us know. The anti-china nonsense hasn't changed since the early 2000s with gordon chang. China was supposed to collapse decades ago according to the anti-china "experts". Today it's the like of peter zeihan and youtube grifters like serpentza, et al. Same old nonsense - economic collapse, falun gong genocide, organ harvesting, environmental devastation, end of "da ccp". All of that turned out to be outright lies in the 2000s. My advice is stop watching silly youtube videos by silly grifters and silly news from silly media organizations. Watch the money. If one day, the dow or s&p drops 10% ( even with circuit breakers ), then we may have something. If it continues to drop and stay down, then we may have something. Can't believe the amount of nonsense people believe when it comes to china. Especially when it's the same old debunked nonsense. At this point I don't know whether people like gordon chang or peter zeihan work for "da USA" or "da CCP". Cause their outlandish bullshit always end up being wrong and making china look good in the end.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > organ harvesting, environmental devasation Just because one person spouts disinformation doesn't mean all criticism is false. [0][1][2] [0] - https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/06/china-un-human-rights-experts-alarmed-organ-harvesting-allegations https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/06/china-un-hum... [1] - https://bmcmedethics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12910-015-0074-0 https://bmcmedethics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s129... [2] - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(10)60937-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
  - goodbyesf 3y ago
    Do I seem like a person who has or hasn't dealt with people who spam a list of links before? Also it's not that one person did, it's that all of them did. It was state backed propaganda. The organ "harvesting" is something that happened in chinese dominant countries. Even in taiwan, which strangely enough didn't get the same "press" coverage. But I'm guessing you already knew that. Whatever happened to the "death camps" in china with millions of muslims? Did that turn out to be fake as well? We had satelite images and graphic testimony and congress even pass a bill declaring it a genocide. And then magically radio silence. That's exactly what happened back then too. But then again, we send warships along the chinese coast and accuse them of threatening us.

alephnerd 3y ago

Chinese youth unemployment in 2023 is roughly comparable to the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) in the 2010s. Those countries still held around a 2-3% GDP growth rate. Also, the bearish 2-3% growth rate estimation was derived independently of the PRC government - it was reached by both Blackstone and the IMF. None of this is to say there isn't an economic malaise/recession in the PRC circa 2023, but honestly it's playing out the same way a similar growth slowdown happened in Mexico, Türkiye, South Korea, Thailand, and Brazil in the 2000s when those countries hit similar economic metrics to China in the early 2020s.

marianatom 3y ago
1.) China's unemployment rate is no where near comparable to europe's. China considers one employed if one has worked at least ONE hour a week. or if their family have land to farm. 2.) There's nothing comparable to what's happening to China right now, except for the Russia sanctions, where an entire economic engine (export, 25% of GDP) is being ripped out or shut down, by companies pulling factories out of China 3.) Blackstone and IMF have been plenty wrong before. also, there's no chance they don't at least use some part of the data from the Chinese's National office of statistics.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Tbh, this is a weird hill for you to die on. The PRC is absolutely in a recession. No one is arguing against that, but to say a recession will lead to a 50% collapse in GDP is absolutely ludicrous. The only middle income countries that have seen such a dramatic collapse in GDP are those in an active state of war like Ukraine, Syria, or Lebanon.
  - quad_eye_oh 3y ago
    Property values are something like 70% of China's wealth, but only 30% of production. A GDP drop of 15% is very conceivable. I think it's likely GP is wrong about the 50% figure, but if they were correct the CCP would never publish the number for fear of scaring away foreign investment. So it may be worth looking into more deeply.

goodbyesf 3y ago

> China IS in a Great Depression. You can't have either the US or China in a great depression without it taking everyone down with them. If china is in a great depression, then so is the rest of the world. If china is in a great depression, apple stock would have cratered as would most indices around the world. Go read about the 1929 stock crash. Money front runs economic depressions. Meaning wall street will let us know. The anti-china nonsense hasn't changed since the early 2000s with gordon chang. China was supposed to collapse decades ago according to the anti-china "experts". Today it's the like of peter zeihan and youtube grifters like serpentza, et al. Same old nonsense - economic collapse, falun gong genocide, organ harvesting, environmental devastation, end of "da ccp". All of that turned out to be outright lies in the 2000s. My advice is stop watching silly youtube videos by silly grifters and silly news from silly media organizations. Watch the money. If one day, the dow or s&p drops 10% ( even with circuit breakers ), then we may have something. If it continues to drop and stay down, then we may have something. Can't believe the amount of nonsense people believe when it comes to china. Especially when it's the same old debunked nonsense. At this point I don't know whether people like gordon chang or peter zeihan work for "da USA" or "da CCP". Cause their outlandish bullshit always end up being wrong and making china look good in the end.

alephnerd 3y ago
> organ harvesting, environmental devasation Just because one person spouts disinformation doesn't mean all criticism is false. [0][1][2] [0] - https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/06/china-un-human-rights-experts-alarmed-organ-harvesting-allegations https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/06/china-un-hum... [1] - https://bmcmedethics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12910-015-0074-0 https://bmcmedethics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s129... [2] - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(10)60937-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
- goodbyesf 3y ago
  Do I seem like a person who has or hasn't dealt with people who spam a list of links before? Also it's not that one person did, it's that all of them did. It was state backed propaganda. The organ "harvesting" is something that happened in chinese dominant countries. Even in taiwan, which strangely enough didn't get the same "press" coverage. But I'm guessing you already knew that. Whatever happened to the "death camps" in china with millions of muslims? Did that turn out to be fake as well? We had satelite images and graphic testimony and congress even pass a bill declaring it a genocide. And then magically radio silence. That's exactly what happened back then too. But then again, we send warships along the chinese coast and accuse them of threatening us.