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The US currently has a large advantage is mass-to-orbit capabilities that is set to explode once Starship comes online. Elon needs to talk less about peace wit

by elurg 3y ago

The US currently has a large advantage is mass-to-orbit capabilities that is set to explode once Starship comes online. Elon needs to talk less about peace with Russia and more about deploying weapon systems. He can make enough money from it to retire on Mars.

belter 3y ago
"Chinese scientists call for plan to destroy Elon Musk's Starlink satellites" - https://www.livescience.com/china-plans-ways-destroy-starlink https://www.livescience.com/china-plans-ways-destroy-starlin...
- panick21_ 3y ago
  Yeah but they can't do it now and not for quite a while. And even then, what is the replacement speed. And how does it compare to how fast the US can take out China space based internet.
cjbgkagh 3y ago
I always assumed he would end up deploying a weapons system to space. Of course he would have to pretend to be doing something else while he builds up the capability to prevent others from becoming nervous. Something silly like colonizing Mars would work, especially if he really leans in to the eccentric billionaire trope.
- MichaelZuo 3y ago
  It would be impossible because even large amateur telescopes can photograph launch payload to a decent level of detail. If the appearance doesn't match a plausible civilian satellite mission then everyone will know within hours.
  - cjbgkagh 3y ago
    The building of the infrastructure needs a red herring, the actual deployment need not be secret because by then it’s a done deed. Once deployed you’d want people to know, to avoid a Dr Strangelove situation. A veritable sword of Damocles.
    - MichaelZuo 3y ago
      I don't see how? An anti-satellite missile can be sent up to destroy the target within a few minutes of a decision.
      - cjbgkagh 3y ago
        That kind of brinkmanship would still be attractive to a waning hegemon. I was thinking more like 250 tones worth of mini nukes which would be pretty hard to shoot down.
        MichaelZuo 3y ago
        That would certainly destroy the US position internationally as it would be impossible to defend surreptitiously launching '250 tons worth of mini nukes' into orbit. Especially if space was not weaponized beforehand. In fact it would very likely lead to literally every other country ganging up on the perceived villain, or at least staying on the sidelines. So I don't see why any launch provider in the US would participate in the intentional destruction of the US?
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        Nah, people will get over it quite quickly. Before it happens people imagine that others will be all upset and do something, after it happens realpolitik kicks in and the world quickly adjusts to the new balance of power. Much of the world has a vested interest in the US staying the dominant hegemon and militarisation of space won't change that.
        MichaelZuo 3y ago
        Are you joking?
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        No I’m not. I actually consider it a preferable outcome to the alternative which is a great powers conflict (WWIII) that would generate untold, potentially nuclear, destruction. If I found out the US did this I would breathe a sigh of relief and I’m sure I’m not the only one. So long as China thinks they have a realistic chance of dethroning the US they’ll take that chance. If the US fails to secure a Russian defeat in Ukraine that’ll only embolden China further. Ideally I’d prefer for the US to fix its own problems and retake its seat as the undisputed economic and moral arbiter of the world but I don’t think that is likely. My biggest worry is that the US believes its own missile shield hype and picks a nuclear fight that the US then loses (hint; everyone loses).
  - ta988 3y ago
    Oh yeah? do we have pictures of all the private and defense satellites that were launched?
    - IntrepidWorm 3y ago
      Certainly not, but one wouldn't need to catch every satellite launch for space weapon- one or two would be enough evidence to go public and warrant further scrutiny. There are a number of extremely savvy amateur astronomers across the world that track suspected military launches and publish their findings: https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
      - ta988 3y ago
        That's a fun website thanks
robotnikman 3y ago
iirc there are international treaties to prevent this. If those treaties get broken you will unleash some nasty weapons, like 'Rods from God' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment

by elurg 3y ago

belter 3y ago

"Chinese scientists call for plan to destroy Elon Musk's Starlink satellites" - https://www.livescience.com/china-plans-ways-destroy-starlink https://www.livescience.com/china-plans-ways-destroy-starlin...

panick21_ 3y ago
Yeah but they can't do it now and not for quite a while. And even then, what is the replacement speed. And how does it compare to how fast the US can take out China space based internet.

cjbgkagh 3y ago

I always assumed he would end up deploying a weapons system to space. Of course he would have to pretend to be doing something else while he builds up the capability to prevent others from becoming nervous. Something silly like colonizing Mars would work, especially if he really leans in to the eccentric billionaire trope.

MichaelZuo 3y ago
It would be impossible because even large amateur telescopes can photograph launch payload to a decent level of detail. If the appearance doesn't match a plausible civilian satellite mission then everyone will know within hours.
- cjbgkagh 3y ago
  The building of the infrastructure needs a red herring, the actual deployment need not be secret because by then it’s a done deed. Once deployed you’d want people to know, to avoid a Dr Strangelove situation. A veritable sword of Damocles.
  - MichaelZuo 3y ago
    I don't see how? An anti-satellite missile can be sent up to destroy the target within a few minutes of a decision.
    - cjbgkagh 3y ago
      That kind of brinkmanship would still be attractive to a waning hegemon. I was thinking more like 250 tones worth of mini nukes which would be pretty hard to shoot down.
      - MichaelZuo 3y ago
        That would certainly destroy the US position internationally as it would be impossible to defend surreptitiously launching '250 tons worth of mini nukes' into orbit. Especially if space was not weaponized beforehand. In fact it would very likely lead to literally every other country ganging up on the perceived villain, or at least staying on the sidelines. So I don't see why any launch provider in the US would participate in the intentional destruction of the US?
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        Nah, people will get over it quite quickly. Before it happens people imagine that others will be all upset and do something, after it happens realpolitik kicks in and the world quickly adjusts to the new balance of power. Much of the world has a vested interest in the US staying the dominant hegemon and militarisation of space won't change that.
        MichaelZuo 3y ago
        Are you joking?
        cjbgkagh 3y ago
        No I’m not. I actually consider it a preferable outcome to the alternative which is a great powers conflict (WWIII) that would generate untold, potentially nuclear, destruction. If I found out the US did this I would breathe a sigh of relief and I’m sure I’m not the only one. So long as China thinks they have a realistic chance of dethroning the US they’ll take that chance. If the US fails to secure a Russian defeat in Ukraine that’ll only embolden China further. Ideally I’d prefer for the US to fix its own problems and retake its seat as the undisputed economic and moral arbiter of the world but I don’t think that is likely. My biggest worry is that the US believes its own missile shield hype and picks a nuclear fight that the US then loses (hint; everyone loses).
- ta988 3y ago
  Oh yeah? do we have pictures of all the private and defense satellites that were launched?
  - IntrepidWorm 3y ago
    Certainly not, but one wouldn't need to catch every satellite launch for space weapon- one or two would be enough evidence to go public and warrant further scrutiny. There are a number of extremely savvy amateur astronomers across the world that track suspected military launches and publish their findings: https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
    - ta988 3y ago
      That's a fun website thanks

robotnikman 3y ago

iirc there are international treaties to prevent this. If those treaties get broken you will unleash some nasty weapons, like 'Rods from God' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment