6 ms·

What does this mean?

by duluca 3y ago

yamazakiwi 3y ago
>The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter. I was confused by the post's title but it appears El Nino is 90% likely to increase temperatures this year from May - Winter. I don't know how different this is from a normal El Nino, nor do I know if 90% is higher or lower than average.
ren_engineer 3y ago
[flagged]
- high_pathetic 3y ago
  Does Canada exist in the ChatGPT4 world?
- nluken 3y ago
  If the poster wanted to ask GPT4, don’t you think they would’ve just asked GPT4?
  - drusepth 3y ago
    Not everyone has access to GPT4. Those with access may also not want to waste one of their 25 quota messages on summarizing a random article.
    - nluken 3y ago
      Fair enough. Unverified LLM output as a comment feels spammy to me even if it’s correct (hence my knee jerk reaction), but I guess that sort of makes sense.
    - 11101010001100 3y ago
      Maybe they don't want to waste money period.
  - soperj 3y ago
    Not everyone pays for GPT4.
- mbgerring 3y ago
  Too bad I would have to manually verify all of its claims myself before I could trust any of them!
  - foreverobama 3y ago
    [dead]
samcheng 3y ago
What El Niño means depends wildly on where you live. In California, particularly Southern California, an El Niño winter is more likely wetter than usual. The 1997-1998 winter comes to mind. These are all statistical predictions based on previous years, and any individual year can vary wildly from average. In addition, climate change makes historical data increasingly irrelevant. So, take any forecast of the weather six months into the future with a grain of salt!
- russellbeattie 3y ago
  I first moved to San Francisco in early 1997. I was absolutely flabbergasted at the amount of rain we got that winter. It just never stopped raining. For months. My distant memory of it was that it started raining just before Thanksgiving (when I had a cousin visit, which is why I remember) and then just didn't stop until like May of 1998. I just looked it up: 18 days of rain in November, 10 in December, 22 in January, 20 in February, 14 in March, 10 in April and 14 in May. Nice to know my 25 year old memory wasn't that bad. I went to Tahoe for the first time that winter and the snowpack was absolutely absurd. Like 20 feet. The ski area parking lot I went to had a wall of snow carved out next to the cars. I have a sideways panoramic photo taken of myself next to it to remember it by.
  - makeitdouble 3y ago
    My dumb brain read it first as "10~14 is a small number, not that bad". But it's really not small, I can't imagine having rain almost every two days, or basically all month in January when it's already darker and colder. I am of the "there's no bad weather only bad clothing" camp, but that much quasi-continuous rain in the winter is a seriously depressing thought. Even the monsoon in SEA only lasts a month or so and it's kinda warm.
  - suzzer99 3y ago
    I was in SF for that winter. I remember one time running a half block from a cab to a bar and it was like we jumped into a pool. Even our jeans were soaked through.
  - quesera 3y ago
crayboff 3y ago
> National forecasters said on Thursday that the climate pattern system, known for bringing record rainfall in South America, more winter storms in the U.S West and South, and droughts in southern Asia, Indonesia and Australia, is expected to make its official return within a few months and has a strong chance of lasting the rest of the year. > > El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific. From: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/el-nino-returns-2023/ https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/el-nino-returns-2023/
rufus_foreman 3y ago
"El Niño usually brings a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and more hurricane activity in the Pacific, while La Niña does the opposite — a dynamic that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has compared to a seesaw. El Niño's warmer waters can also push the Pacific jet stream south. When that happens, the NOAA says, "areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding."" -- https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1173734262/el-nino-2023-weather-pattern https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1173734262/el-nino-2023-weath...
thomascgalvin 3y ago
From CBS News[1] : > El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific. From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)[2]: > El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding. > El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient rich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold. As far as the Continental United States is concerned, this means the Northern half of the country will be warmer than usual, the Southern half of the country will be wetter than usual, and the Northeast in particular will be drier than usual. [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-returns-2023/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-returns-2023/ [2]https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
- nomel 3y ago
  Even though it's a known cyclical pattern, there's just enough time between where people forget, so the news can sensationalize it. For example, the last strong one was 2015-2016.
  - klyrs 3y ago
    The baseline is going up, and people are already dying due to weather extremes. A cyclic pattern that increases extremes is a legitimate cause for concern in each year it occurs.
    - G3rn0ti 3y ago
      > The baseline is going up. I think that is debatable: https://m.facebook.com/photo?fbid=721067186044954&wtsid=rdr_02shlaWZliGiAVNiv https://m.facebook.com/photo?fbid=721067186044954&wtsid=rdr_... While I am not saying to ignore climate change, I do believe that the recent public narrative of a looming „climate catastrophe“ is certainly just to scare people into accepting all kinds of policy changes (and some of them with questionable usefulness).
whynotkeithberg 3y ago
Here in Northern California it means we've had a lot more rain, and it's been much cooler than usual as well as getting snow to a much lower level than usual (around 800 feet). Normally it would have already been 100 or so for a month already. however, today is first day to really hit 90 and we just had some rain last week. Honestly, I'm hoping it means we have a more mild & wet summer but that I'm not sure of. Anything other than the fires would be nice though.
- MarkMarine 3y ago
  The unfortunate side effect of El Niño is to further destabilize the marine environment off shore. This isn’t all El Niño, we lost the sunflower starfish which preyed on urchins and kept them in check to a disease, but the warm surface waters are another bad situation on top of low kelp cover, urchins out of control, no predators for the urchins, etc. if we don’t have kelp forests off shore, the environment will be totally different and many species that depend on the kelp will disappear.
  - xedrac 3y ago
    El Niño has been occurring for thousands of years. I think any contribution it has in destabilizing marine environments must be leveled with the fact that it's been doing so for a very long time, and yet those marine environments are still there. This tells me that it's not a primary cause.
    - MarkMarine 3y ago
      The kelp forests that provide safe harbor for young fish, and much of the riches California’s fishing industry enjoys, can easily disappear. They already have in large swaths of the coast. The sardine stocks collapsed. Salmon season is cancelled. Abalone will probably never be legally taken again in my lifetime in California. El Nino is a natural phenomenon, but when the ecosystem is already on the edge because of climate change, ocean acidification, and overfishing it is enough that it might permanently change the ecosystem. I’m explaining that it’s already way out of whack because we killed most of the otters, decimated the sardine run, and then the starfish wasting disease took the last main urchin predator.
mastazi 3y ago
From Australia's BOM [1] * Winter-Spring (June-November): Dryer than usual in eastern Australia, warmer than usual in southern Australia * Summer-Autumn (December-May): Warmer than usual with average rainfall in eastern Australia, dryer conditions in Cape York and Tasmania, and wetter conditions in the southern part of Western Australia [1] http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean PS BOM agrees with NOAA that El Niño is coming http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=ENSO-Outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=ENSO-Outloo...
- Jedd 3y ago
  Inevitable, but disappointing of course - I had hoped we'd have something closer to a 5y cycle, as the previous couple of dry cycles were much longer than this most recent wet(ish) one. I'm 150km inland, just north of Sydney AU latitude (150E, 33S). The very averaged annual rainfall in our area is 600mm (about the same as London, about half of Sydney). In 2021 we had 910mm, and 2022 we had 966mm. So far this year we've had 192mm - and given January is our wettest period, that's way under both long-term average and recent trend.
- nabogh 3y ago
  It's worth noting that the Americans here will likely experience wetter than normal conditions (region dependent). I'm just happy Australia might have a year without so much rain. Might be a bad fire season in the end of the year though.
  - LilBytes 3y ago
    Yep, with the amount of rain we've had in the SE coast there's a lot of fuel around waiting to dry out.
ttymck 3y ago
In Los Angeles, anyway, where as you may know, it "never rains", there's been what residents can only describe comparatively as "non-stop rain" since the new year. Where it should be regularly mid-70s by this time of year, it's stayed around high-50s since January. Preparing for my trip to London, I was planning for a wetter and colder climate than I'm accustomed to. It turns out it's actually nicer weather in London than in LA right now.

What does this mean?

by duluca 3y ago

What does this mean?

>The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter. I was confused by the post's title but it appears El Nino is 90% likely to increase temperatures this year from May - Winter. I don't know how different this is from a normal El Nino, nor do I know if 90% is higher or lower than average.

ren_engineer 3y ago

[flagged]

high_pathetic 3y ago
Does Canada exist in the ChatGPT4 world?
nluken 3y ago
If the poster wanted to ask GPT4, don’t you think they would’ve just asked GPT4?
- drusepth 3y ago
  Not everyone has access to GPT4. Those with access may also not want to waste one of their 25 quota messages on summarizing a random article.
  - nluken 3y ago
    Fair enough. Unverified LLM output as a comment feels spammy to me even if it’s correct (hence my knee jerk reaction), but I guess that sort of makes sense.
  - 11101010001100 3y ago
    Maybe they don't want to waste money period.
- soperj 3y ago
  Not everyone pays for GPT4.
mbgerring 3y ago
Too bad I would have to manually verify all of its claims myself before I could trust any of them!
- foreverobama 3y ago
  [dead]

samcheng 3y ago

What El Niño means depends wildly on where you live. In California, particularly Southern California, an El Niño winter is more likely wetter than usual. The 1997-1998 winter comes to mind. These are all statistical predictions based on previous years, and any individual year can vary wildly from average. In addition, climate change makes historical data increasingly irrelevant. So, take any forecast of the weather six months into the future with a grain of salt!

russellbeattie 3y ago
I first moved to San Francisco in early 1997. I was absolutely flabbergasted at the amount of rain we got that winter. It just never stopped raining. For months. My distant memory of it was that it started raining just before Thanksgiving (when I had a cousin visit, which is why I remember) and then just didn't stop until like May of 1998. I just looked it up: 18 days of rain in November, 10 in December, 22 in January, 20 in February, 14 in March, 10 in April and 14 in May. Nice to know my 25 year old memory wasn't that bad. I went to Tahoe for the first time that winter and the snowpack was absolutely absurd. Like 20 feet. The ski area parking lot I went to had a wall of snow carved out next to the cars. I have a sideways panoramic photo taken of myself next to it to remember it by.
- makeitdouble 3y ago
  My dumb brain read it first as "10~14 is a small number, not that bad". But it's really not small, I can't imagine having rain almost every two days, or basically all month in January when it's already darker and colder. I am of the "there's no bad weather only bad clothing" camp, but that much quasi-continuous rain in the winter is a seriously depressing thought. Even the monsoon in SEA only lasts a month or so and it's kinda warm.
- suzzer99 3y ago
  I was in SF for that winter. I remember one time running a half block from a cab to a bar and it was like we jumped into a pool. Even our jeans were soaked through.
- quesera 3y ago

crayboff 3y ago

> National forecasters said on Thursday that the climate pattern system, known for bringing record rainfall in South America, more winter storms in the U.S West and South, and droughts in southern Asia, Indonesia and Australia, is expected to make its official return within a few months and has a strong chance of lasting the rest of the year. > > El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific. From: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/el-nino-returns-2023/ https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/el-nino-returns-2023/

rufus_foreman 3y ago

"El Niño usually brings a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and more hurricane activity in the Pacific, while La Niña does the opposite — a dynamic that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has compared to a seesaw. El Niño's warmer waters can also push the Pacific jet stream south. When that happens, the NOAA says, "areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding."" -- https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1173734262/el-nino-2023-weather-pattern https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1173734262/el-nino-2023-weath...

thomascgalvin 3y ago

From CBS News[1] : > El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific. From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)[2]: > El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding. > El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient rich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold. As far as the Continental United States is concerned, this means the Northern half of the country will be warmer than usual, the Southern half of the country will be wetter than usual, and the Northeast in particular will be drier than usual. [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-returns-2023/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-returns-2023/ [2]https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

nomel 3y ago
Even though it's a known cyclical pattern, there's just enough time between where people forget, so the news can sensationalize it. For example, the last strong one was 2015-2016.
- klyrs 3y ago
  The baseline is going up, and people are already dying due to weather extremes. A cyclic pattern that increases extremes is a legitimate cause for concern in each year it occurs.
  - G3rn0ti 3y ago
    > The baseline is going up. I think that is debatable: https://m.facebook.com/photo?fbid=721067186044954&wtsid=rdr_02shlaWZliGiAVNiv https://m.facebook.com/photo?fbid=721067186044954&wtsid=rdr_... While I am not saying to ignore climate change, I do believe that the recent public narrative of a looming „climate catastrophe“ is certainly just to scare people into accepting all kinds of policy changes (and some of them with questionable usefulness).

whynotkeithberg 3y ago

Here in Northern California it means we've had a lot more rain, and it's been much cooler than usual as well as getting snow to a much lower level than usual (around 800 feet). Normally it would have already been 100 or so for a month already. however, today is first day to really hit 90 and we just had some rain last week. Honestly, I'm hoping it means we have a more mild & wet summer but that I'm not sure of. Anything other than the fires would be nice though.

MarkMarine 3y ago
The unfortunate side effect of El Niño is to further destabilize the marine environment off shore. This isn’t all El Niño, we lost the sunflower starfish which preyed on urchins and kept them in check to a disease, but the warm surface waters are another bad situation on top of low kelp cover, urchins out of control, no predators for the urchins, etc. if we don’t have kelp forests off shore, the environment will be totally different and many species that depend on the kelp will disappear.
- xedrac 3y ago
  El Niño has been occurring for thousands of years. I think any contribution it has in destabilizing marine environments must be leveled with the fact that it's been doing so for a very long time, and yet those marine environments are still there. This tells me that it's not a primary cause.
  - MarkMarine 3y ago
    The kelp forests that provide safe harbor for young fish, and much of the riches California’s fishing industry enjoys, can easily disappear. They already have in large swaths of the coast. The sardine stocks collapsed. Salmon season is cancelled. Abalone will probably never be legally taken again in my lifetime in California. El Nino is a natural phenomenon, but when the ecosystem is already on the edge because of climate change, ocean acidification, and overfishing it is enough that it might permanently change the ecosystem. I’m explaining that it’s already way out of whack because we killed most of the otters, decimated the sardine run, and then the starfish wasting disease took the last main urchin predator.

mastazi 3y ago

From Australia's BOM [1] * Winter-Spring (June-November): Dryer than usual in eastern Australia, warmer than usual in southern Australia * Summer-Autumn (December-May): Warmer than usual with average rainfall in eastern Australia, dryer conditions in Cape York and Tasmania, and wetter conditions in the southern part of Western Australia [1] http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean PS BOM agrees with NOAA that El Niño is coming http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=ENSO-Outlook http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=ENSO-Outloo...

Jedd 3y ago
Inevitable, but disappointing of course - I had hoped we'd have something closer to a 5y cycle, as the previous couple of dry cycles were much longer than this most recent wet(ish) one. I'm 150km inland, just north of Sydney AU latitude (150E, 33S). The very averaged annual rainfall in our area is 600mm (about the same as London, about half of Sydney). In 2021 we had 910mm, and 2022 we had 966mm. So far this year we've had 192mm - and given January is our wettest period, that's way under both long-term average and recent trend.
nabogh 3y ago
It's worth noting that the Americans here will likely experience wetter than normal conditions (region dependent). I'm just happy Australia might have a year without so much rain. Might be a bad fire season in the end of the year though.
- LilBytes 3y ago
  Yep, with the amount of rain we've had in the SE coast there's a lot of fuel around waiting to dry out.

ttymck 3y ago

In Los Angeles, anyway, where as you may know, it "never rains", there's been what residents can only describe comparatively as "non-stop rain" since the new year. Where it should be regularly mid-70s by this time of year, it's stayed around high-50s since January. Preparing for my trip to London, I was planning for a wetter and colder climate than I'm accustomed to. It turns out it's actually nicer weather in London than in LA right now.