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How is this anywhere the same? In a scam, you don't have any way of making any future correct predictions--it's just random. This analyst has a reasoned syste
by jimmybot 15y ago
How is this anywhere the same?
In a scam, you don't have any way of making any future correct predictions--it's just random. This analyst has a reasoned system that can be tested against past players and against future prospects. Sure, there's going to be someone out there that picks Jeremy Lin. But the trick is, can you correctly identify players who are already known to be good based on their college stats, make the right call on Jeremy Lin, and go forward and continue to make good calls on draft prospects?
I'm not saying this sabermetrician generally makes good calls; I haven't looked. But dismissing his call as the result of a series of Bernoulli trials is completely missing the point.
- Retric 15y agoHis point is the number of people making predictions is high enough that it raises the bar for people to stand out from the pack. Basically run an ANOVA test on 10 groups vs 10,000 groups and it takes a larger divination to stand out from the pack. PS: It does not matter if there is a system behind their predictions, what matters is how well their predictions hold up over time. Otherwise your just: http://xkcd.com/904/ http://xkcd.com/904/
- mrobataille 15y agoThat's my favorite xkcd - so simple, and true. Ironic side note - I tried to use it as my ESPN.com forum account avatar, and was denied.
- corin_ 15y agoIn the scam one person is making loads of predictions knowing that some will pay off. In this story, lots of people are making predictions and again, the chances are some of them will be right. Read the comment I replied to, his point was exactly the same as the scam's logic, which is basically that if enough monkeys spend enough time with typewriters... etc.
- jimmybot 15y agoThere's a very important difference that you're missing. In the scam you're applying you're random machine over all possible results. In the sabermetrician example, the random machine is being applied across methodologies of picking prospects, ie bunch of different "moneyball" hobbyists trying out different stats and weights to rank players. The end result is the possibility of the discovery of a very good methodology that has found stats that traditionally are not important.