7 ms·

The Pacific, for one, meaning control of shipping lanes—and with these, economic/political leverage over Japan (which, as internal PLA documents for senior staf

by zsz 3y ago

The Pacific, for one, meaning control of shipping lanes—and with these, economic/political leverage over Japan (which, as internal PLA documents for senior staff have already revealed, they intend to put to full use). Right now, China is boxed in from all sides by mostly U.S. allied countries, so breaking the "First Island Chain" encirclement is in reality a much bigger deal than the semiconductor industry, especially in the long term.

CamperBob2 3y ago
Who do they plan to ship to using their newly-conquered shipping lanes, exactly? They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.
- jandrese 3y ago
  Other authoritarian regimes. Autocrats gotta stick together. Besides, international sanctions don't last forever. Give it a decade and maybe everyone forgets. China is a gigantic market and that's a lot of political pressure. It's not a tiny island nation like Cuba.
  - aaronblohowiak 3y ago
    > China is a gigantic market and that's a lot of political pressure. how do their imports compare to their exports?
- localplume 3y ago
  [dead]
- lenkite 3y ago
  > They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia. Umm...except for US+EU, no one is saying No to Russian oil and other exports. Of-course, you are free to consider that the "rest of the civilized world" in your mind.
  - creato 3y ago
    Russia is getting $52/barrel for oil. Other producers are getting $80-85/barrel.
    - pclmulqdq 3y ago
      Comparing oil prices like this doesn't exactly work - oil is less of a commodity than we like to think. $80-85 per barrel is the price for WTI or Brent, which is a grade of crude oil called "light sweet crude." As oil goes, this is the highest purity grade. Middle Eastern oil, in general, is not anywhere near that pure, and can go for as little as $20-30/barrel. I assume Russian oil is also not quite as light and sweet as $80/barrel oil would be. The whole point is that $52/barrel isn't (only) geopolitics, it's also about oil purity.
      - perpetualpatzer 3y ago
        This chart looks like it's mostly geopolitics. The Brent-Ural spread opened pretty significantly in Jan. [0]https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/crude-oil-prices https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/crude-oil-prices
- nonethewiser 3y ago
  Why wouldnt they, if they could, send the navy to secure Japanese islands they insist are theirs?
  - lmm 3y ago
    Isn't that wholly circular? Annex the islands to allow the navy free passage to annex the islands to...

by zsz 3y ago

CamperBob2 3y ago

Who do they plan to ship to using their newly-conquered shipping lanes, exactly? They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.

jandrese 3y ago
Other authoritarian regimes. Autocrats gotta stick together. Besides, international sanctions don't last forever. Give it a decade and maybe everyone forgets. China is a gigantic market and that's a lot of political pressure. It's not a tiny island nation like Cuba.
- aaronblohowiak 3y ago
  > China is a gigantic market and that's a lot of political pressure. how do their imports compare to their exports?
localplume 3y ago
[dead]
lenkite 3y ago
> They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia. Umm...except for US+EU, no one is saying No to Russian oil and other exports. Of-course, you are free to consider that the "rest of the civilized world" in your mind.
- creato 3y ago
  Russia is getting $52/barrel for oil. Other producers are getting $80-85/barrel.
  - pclmulqdq 3y ago
    Comparing oil prices like this doesn't exactly work - oil is less of a commodity than we like to think. $80-85 per barrel is the price for WTI or Brent, which is a grade of crude oil called "light sweet crude." As oil goes, this is the highest purity grade. Middle Eastern oil, in general, is not anywhere near that pure, and can go for as little as $20-30/barrel. I assume Russian oil is also not quite as light and sweet as $80/barrel oil would be. The whole point is that $52/barrel isn't (only) geopolitics, it's also about oil purity.
    - perpetualpatzer 3y ago
      This chart looks like it's mostly geopolitics. The Brent-Ural spread opened pretty significantly in Jan. [0]https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/crude-oil-prices https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/crude-oil-prices
nonethewiser 3y ago
Why wouldnt they, if they could, send the navy to secure Japanese islands they insist are theirs?
- lmm 3y ago
  Isn't that wholly circular? Annex the islands to allow the navy free passage to annex the islands to...