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The prediction markets on PredictIt have the Democrats winning at 52 cents, and the Republicans at 50 cents. You should expect the election to be quite close.
by Name_Chawps 4y ago
The prediction markets on PredictIt have the Democrats winning at 52 cents, and the Republicans at 50 cents. You should expect the election to be quite close.
- RobAtticus 4y agodragonwriter was talking about the Democratic primary.
- dragonwriter 4y agoI’m talking about the Demcoratic nomination contest, not the general election, but even in the latter case I would expect prediction markets odds of victory more than a year out to have very weak, if any correlation, to margin of victory. Heck, I don’t know of any research showing that prediction markets far from elections are even good at predicting odds.
- lesuorac 4y agoMeh, if you look at the Candle for 90d you can see the high/low for Nov3,4th of the 2020 election [1]. There's so much volatility in that data its hard it's hard to consider this an accurate predicator for 2024. The volume for 2024 is also so low compared to 2020 so I don't think you can use the current 2024 predictions as evidence. [1]: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-t...
- kuhewa 4y agoA lot can happen in 600 days