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Iranians are willing to die (and are dying) to fight the current government. Inflation and the economy has destroyed their hope of a future for decades. Talk to
by pinkbeanz 4y ago
Iranians are willing to die (and are dying) to fight the current government. Inflation and the economy has destroyed their hope of a future for decades. Talk to any Iranian now and they’re all hoping for the end of the regime. It can’t get much worse.
Iran is not Syria, there’s a flourishing academic population, the fundamentalists are the ones in power, plenty of people still remember what life was like pre-1979.
- the_af 4y ago> Iran is not Syria, there’s a flourishing academic population, the fundamentalists are the ones in power What do you think will happen if the Iranian state collapses? What happened the last time the Iranian state collapsed? Something to ponder before wishing for another collapse.
- pinkbeanz 4y agoI’m an Iranian, I’m allowed to wish for the collapse of that awful regime. You can save your sanctimony for someone else.
- mighty_donkey 4y agoRegime rapes and murders women and children, imprisons thousands, mismanages the economy to the point where millions live in poverty and everyone's life savings are slashed in half , environmental degradation to the point where lakes are drying up, state-sponsored terrorism etc....but hey guys have you "pondered" how bad state collapse would be?
- the_af 4y agohttps://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Please assume good faith and don't incite flamewars. When I'm arguing against wishing for collapse "from the comfort of our countries", where do you read that I'm talking to Iranians? I'm talking to HN commenters who are not from Iran. I'm obviously not arguing with pinkbeanz since he/she is from Iran. Try arguing in good faith, unless you want this to devolve into a flamewar. You already tried something like this in another comment: please stop.
- aliqot 4y ago> Please assume good faith and don't incite flamewars. please don't leap behind this when someone engages your comment in an equal tone. mom has nothing to do with this conversation.
- the_af 4y agoWhat was my tone? "Do not so recklessly wish collapse onto others", is that the tone you object to? I would have thought everyone agreed on this.
- wizofaus 4y agoIt reads to me like others are talking regime collapse, whereas you're concerned about societal-level collapse. I'd agree few with good intentions would wish for the latter. Regimes can and do collapse without it meaning anything like the level of nationwide chaos and misery you seem to have in mind.
- the_af 4y agoYes, I think that's what may be happening, at least for the people arguing with me in good faith. In that case, let me be explicit that I'm pessimistic about the current government of Iran (a dictatorship which I'm not in any way in favor of) collapsing without a lot of destruction and bloodshed, and that I do not wish this destruction on the families currently living there. I also fear that if this collapse leaves a power vacuum, something like -- similar, not exactly the same -- ISIS could rise in its place. I'm very pessimistic about this, and so I'm wary of wishing for collapse.
- TeMPOraL 4y agoI interpreted GP as talking specifically about induced regime collapse, specifically one induced externally. As in, not about the regime itself slowly decaying into a more benign form, but rather about attempts to remove it by force. Historically, I can't think of a single case of a regime being destroyed through revolution or invasion that didn't end in at least partial societal collapse and a drastic increase in deaths and suffering for a generation or more.
- Slava_Propanei 4y ago[dead]
- erenyeager 4y agoMethod matters. If people overthrow the government in violence, then it is just another turn of the revolving door of violence. What will happen to the former partisans and supporters of the old guard? Not to mention, if a movement without sufficient ability to take power rises and fails, the loss in life and chaos in society will be far worse than the status quo. Iran is not starvation level desperate, nor people trapped under earthquake rubble desperate, to my knowledge, so I do not expect a successful popular movement without buy in from the elite and military classes of the country.
- actionfromafar 4y agoSo, what method do you propose? Harsh language?
- erenyeager 4y agoPatience
- actionfromafar 4y agoWow... I'm not sure what to say. How many decades more, for instance?
- kaba0 4y agoYeah, I’m sure if we would have just waited a few more years, slavery would have also ended, we would have ended child labor, women would be allowed to vote… come on, this is just utterly dumbly naive.
- TeMPOraL 4y agoCan't say much about slavery, but the issues of child labor and women rights weren't solved through a bloody revolution, and there are good arguments that they were primarily the consequence of technological progress fueled by economic growth.
- samtho 4y agoThis reads like a low-key, state-sponsored bot post on Twitter: spreading FUD under the guise of being “safe.” Iranians need to take back their country, they are already not safe. At this point, the only transfer of power that will happen will be due to a hostile civilian takeover. The current regime will not abdicate and any foreign military coup will likely not be tolerated by the people. A revolution will serve as a cautionary tale to future governments who attempt to push fundamentalism as law.
- the_af 4y ago> This reads like a low-key, state-sponsored bot post on Twitter Let me call out your idiocy: please review my comments history. This is the dumbest, stupidest thing you can argue about my post. It's something that can be refuted with a 5-minute perusal of my comments history. Please try to do better.
- icare_1er 4y agoOne is right to be careful about another state collapsing, after the failures of Irak, Syria, Lybia, etc.... However, I also think the Iranian situation (and unlike many commenters I know Iran, have been there many times, and more) is different because there already is a quite successful diaspora of Iranians ready to take back control of the country. Iranians have managed to somehow maintain a decent amount of infrastructure despite the sanctions and the general adversity (they did not become Cuba). There is an inherent vitality within the Iranian people which makes me very confident that once the islamists are rooted out, their country will spring back to being a working economy thanks to its intellectually very capable people and its diaspora.
- the_af 4y agoThanks for the measured reply. I hope what you're saying actually results in a transition with minimal violence. I would also like minimum interference from foreign powers, the US included.