They weren't in the medical literature. The 10k prediction was in STAT news (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pande

They weren't in the medical literature. The 10k prediction was in STAT news (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...) (note: it wasn't a hard prediction, but he seems to treat it as the best estimate based on the data at the time). The 40K prediction was quoted in the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/without-mass-testing-were-flying-blind-through-this-crisis/2020/04/09/bf61e178-7a9b-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/without-mass-testing...). There's a good summary with additional links, quotes, and commentary here: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/10000-deaths/ https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/10000-deaths/