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What if Amazon is just an online bookstore? What if Apple is just a computer company? What if Google is just a search engine? I didn't make it past the paywall

What if Amazon is just an online bookstore? What if Apple is just a computer company? What if Google is just a search engine? I didn't make it past the paywall, but I think this is a pretty silly argument. Yes, the stock might even drop another 50% between now and the bottom of the recession as margins fall to keep demand level. No, the company is going to be just fine. They'll be making huge software-style margins on FSD in 2024 and beyond. FSD has been the better part of a decade in the making, and it runs on every Tesla made since 2019. That's a lot of cars! Hundreds of thousands of people have it, and while it definitely isn't complete yet, they're a heck of a lot closer. My sources are my friends that use FSD in their own cars every day. The really cool thing about FSD is that the same software is going to take Tesla into whole new markets with the Tesla Bot in a few years. This isn't worth anything to Wall Street right now, but it sure will be in 2027.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> What if Amazon is just an online bookstore? Then it’s worth substantially less than it trades for. (Also, it should lay off most of its staff, cut the remainder’s pay, and overhaul its business model.) Amazon isn’t just a bookstore. That is the article’s point. > isn't worth anything to Wall Street right now It’s worth everything to Wall Street, to the degree massive uptake numbers are already priced in.
amf12 4y ago
> They'll be making huge software-style margins on FSD in 2024 and beyond. I think other companies might come close. They might not have Tesla style "FSD", but coming close in terms of highway only, slow speed only, might be enough to make Tesla a "car company". Mercedes has already started its approval for L3 self-driving in the US, where they would assume liability. A lot of other cars have a subset of "Autopilot + FSD" features like: adaptive cruise control, auto-park, summon, better lane assist*. Sure, these are not the same as Tesla FSD, but in a few years other manufacturers will come close enough. One big factor in why Tesla is/seems ahead is because they are using regular people to "test" their "FSD", when other companies are being more cautious. Tesla could showcase their "FSD" by having "full self-driving" teslas in certain cities, and applying for licenses, but they haven't.
- maxharris 4y ago
  Can you explain to me what principles the Mercedes system operates on? And why does it have to be geofenced? An advanced system can learn and operate anywhere.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    L3 and more means that legal liability for crash is up to Mercedes. That's the reason why it is geofenced. Tesla is selling only L2 software, pretending that it is L5. When they will take legal liability as well, then it is possible to assume, that they trust their product. Until then, it is just a scam.
Zigurd 4y ago
Thing is, FSD may be a total failure, while at the same time, Amazon has shown it is an online bookstore and the biggest cloud provider on the planet. Tesla promised FSD, delivered an oddball L2 ADAS. Promised a long haul semi, customer delivers potato chips with it. Promised a pickup, says "basically finalized" ("funding secured?"). Promised a robot, delivered something a Boston Dynamics dog could take down with one nudge. Elon Musk decided machine vision is enough for L5 AV driving. He may be wrong, in which case the value of all that camera data collected by FSD customers may be of little value compared to the 3D maps Google has been collecting.
clouddrover 4y ago
> They'll be making huge software-style margins on FSD in 2024 and beyond. Ah, the standard "full self-driving next year, for reals this time!" lie. It's boring at this point: https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496 https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-ne... I think you've been Teslaed or possibly Musked.
- SirLJ 4y ago
  > I think you've been Teslaed or possibly Musked. :-)
- maxharris 4y ago
  Around 285,000 people in the United States have FSD beta in their cars right now. The FSD take rate (FSD sold with a new Tesla) is around 19-20%. YouTube is full of videos showing FSD in action. The software isn't perfect, nor is it finished. Drivers are required to keep their hands on the wheel and be ready to take over at any moment, and there is a monitoring system to enforce it. You can pick it apart and poke at the issues all you want, but Tesla is obviously far ahead of all of their competitors if you look at it from the perspective of a computer person rather than a car guy. The competition is still using LiDAR and pre-programmed maps which can't deal with real-world conditions, which is where Tesla was back 6-7 years ago. I hope we can talk about this in the future to see how my prediction did. I'm @realtaraharris on Twitter (different handle because I began transitioning in October 2022).
  - bamboozled 4y ago
    FSD Software kind of has to be "perfect" or pretty close otherwise people / customers, you know...die?

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> What if Amazon is just an online bookstore? Then it’s worth substantially less than it trades for. (Also, it should lay off most of its staff, cut the remainder’s pay, and overhaul its business model.) Amazon isn’t just a bookstore. That is the article’s point. > isn't worth anything to Wall Street right now It’s worth everything to Wall Street, to the degree massive uptake numbers are already priced in.

amf12 4y ago

> They'll be making huge software-style margins on FSD in 2024 and beyond. I think other companies might come close. They might not have Tesla style "FSD", but coming close in terms of highway only, slow speed only, might be enough to make Tesla a "car company". Mercedes has already started its approval for L3 self-driving in the US, where they would assume liability. A lot of other cars have a subset of "Autopilot + FSD" features like: adaptive cruise control, auto-park, summon, better lane assist*. Sure, these are not the same as Tesla FSD, but in a few years other manufacturers will come close enough. One big factor in why Tesla is/seems ahead is because they are using regular people to "test" their "FSD", when other companies are being more cautious. Tesla could showcase their "FSD" by having "full self-driving" teslas in certain cities, and applying for licenses, but they haven't.

maxharris 4y ago
Can you explain to me what principles the Mercedes system operates on? And why does it have to be geofenced? An advanced system can learn and operate anywhere.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  L3 and more means that legal liability for crash is up to Mercedes. That's the reason why it is geofenced. Tesla is selling only L2 software, pretending that it is L5. When they will take legal liability as well, then it is possible to assume, that they trust their product. Until then, it is just a scam.

Zigurd 4y ago

Thing is, FSD may be a total failure, while at the same time, Amazon has shown it is an online bookstore and the biggest cloud provider on the planet. Tesla promised FSD, delivered an oddball L2 ADAS. Promised a long haul semi, customer delivers potato chips with it. Promised a pickup, says "basically finalized" ("funding secured?"). Promised a robot, delivered something a Boston Dynamics dog could take down with one nudge. Elon Musk decided machine vision is enough for L5 AV driving. He may be wrong, in which case the value of all that camera data collected by FSD customers may be of little value compared to the 3D maps Google has been collecting.

clouddrover 4y ago

> They'll be making huge software-style margins on FSD in 2024 and beyond. Ah, the standard "full self-driving next year, for reals this time!" lie. It's boring at this point: https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496 https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-ne... I think you've been Teslaed or possibly Musked.

SirLJ 4y ago
> I think you've been Teslaed or possibly Musked. :-)
maxharris 4y ago
Around 285,000 people in the United States have FSD beta in their cars right now. The FSD take rate (FSD sold with a new Tesla) is around 19-20%. YouTube is full of videos showing FSD in action. The software isn't perfect, nor is it finished. Drivers are required to keep their hands on the wheel and be ready to take over at any moment, and there is a monitoring system to enforce it. You can pick it apart and poke at the issues all you want, but Tesla is obviously far ahead of all of their competitors if you look at it from the perspective of a computer person rather than a car guy. The competition is still using LiDAR and pre-programmed maps which can't deal with real-world conditions, which is where Tesla was back 6-7 years ago. I hope we can talk about this in the future to see how my prediction did. I'm @realtaraharris on Twitter (different handle because I began transitioning in October 2022).
- bamboozled 4y ago
  FSD Software kind of has to be "perfect" or pretty close otherwise people / customers, you know...die?