30 ms·
Actually, the risk is stratified by age. With this entire pandemic, risk has been stratified by age, co-morbidities, etc. If you're a male under 40 years old
by madman2890 4y ago
Actually, the risk is stratified by age. With this entire pandemic, risk has been stratified by age, co-morbidities, etc.
If you're a male under 40 years old your risk of myocarditis is higher from the vaccines. Not to mention, if you don't have co-morbidities, your risk of death from COVID is quite low. It's a simple cost benefit analysis, really. According to a linked study (ahajournals.org link), risk of cardiac related issues from vaccine for males under 40, like myself, is 1/10000 or 0.0001. Risk of cardiac related issues from covid-19 for males under 40 is about 0.0000016, so about a factor of 6 lower risk. Additionally, as we know from more recent studies, especially with the Kraken XBB variant, vaccines offer virtually no protection and almost everyone will get infected. So we can code probability of infection post-vaccination and post-natural infection as equal for the sake of simplicity. Additionally, there is a growing body of research discussing reinfection issues during a subsequent infection by vaccination status, and the latest numbers I extracted from the paper are coded below. In summary, for me, a 32 year old male, we get the following risks profiles:
vaccine risk = P(problem | vaccine, male under 40, no comorbidities) * P(covid | vaccine immunity) * P(problem second infection | vaccine immunity)
vaccine risk = 0.0001 * 0.95 * 0.51
vaccine risk = 0.000004845
natural immunity risk = P(problem | covid-19, male under 40, no comorbidities) * P(covid | natural immunity) * P(problem second infection | natural immunity)
natural immunity risk = 0.0000016 * 0.95 * 0.47
natural immunity risk = 0.00000007144
vaccine risk vs. natural risk
Vaccine 67X more risky than natural route (FOR ME)
Myocarditis risk vaccines vs. natural immunity males under 40:
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.059970 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.1...
XBB 1.5 Kraken likelihood of infection:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36580913/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36580913/
Serious issues associated with subsequent infection by vaccination status:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(22)00287-7/abstract https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...