6 ms·

I wonder by what metric this is true. For instance, I’m sure the fatality per flight of manned space flight is an order of magnitude worse than commercial air f

I wonder by what metric this is true. For instance, I’m sure the fatality per flight of manned space flight is an order of magnitude worse than commercial air flight in the US.

wyldfire 4y ago
Speculating - what if we only consider craft piloting errors? That would rule out many fatalities - Apollo 1, Challenger, Columbia.
perihelions 4y ago
Easily *six* orders of magnitude. STS saw two crashes in O(10^2) flights (and SpaceX has much smaller numbers still). The US handles O(10^7) commercial flights per year, none of which crashed in 10+ years (I think). https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers
- edgyquant 4y ago
  Ridiculous. This is comparing the modern commercial private space flight industry with the still maturing mostly public industry. Compare how dangerous the first twenty years of air flight was. We haven’t achieved the same level of commercial space flight due to just how cautious we’ve been.
  - jrockway 4y ago
    Aviation statistics get pretty scary as you go down the regulatory hierarchy. Charter operations (part 135) have a worse safety record than big airlines (part 121). General Aviation pales in comparison to both. (And yup, some careless private pilots turn their C172 into an unlicensed charter airline.) Good overview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpGl2_fVr2Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpGl2_fVr2Y Right now, private spaceflight is basically regulated in a manner similar to Part 91 (GA) operations. The customer signs a waiver saying that the vehicle is not certified and that they've checked it out to ensure it's safe. Early days, of course.
edgyquant 4y ago
You sure? When air flight was pre-commercial it was a dangerous business indeed. Had we been as cautious as with space flight we wouldn’t have had commercial air flights until very recently.

I wonder by what metric this is true. For instance, I’m sure the fatality per flight of manned space flight is an order of magnitude worse than commercial air flight in the US.

wyldfire 4y ago

Speculating - what if we only consider craft piloting errors? That would rule out many fatalities - Apollo 1, Challenger, Columbia.

perihelions 4y ago

Easily *six* orders of magnitude. STS saw two crashes in O(10^2) flights (and SpaceX has much smaller numbers still). The US handles O(10^7) commercial flights per year, none of which crashed in 10+ years (I think). https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers

edgyquant 4y ago
Ridiculous. This is comparing the modern commercial private space flight industry with the still maturing mostly public industry. Compare how dangerous the first twenty years of air flight was. We haven’t achieved the same level of commercial space flight due to just how cautious we’ve been.
- jrockway 4y ago
  Aviation statistics get pretty scary as you go down the regulatory hierarchy. Charter operations (part 135) have a worse safety record than big airlines (part 121). General Aviation pales in comparison to both. (And yup, some careless private pilots turn their C172 into an unlicensed charter airline.) Good overview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpGl2_fVr2Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpGl2_fVr2Y Right now, private spaceflight is basically regulated in a manner similar to Part 91 (GA) operations. The customer signs a waiver saying that the vehicle is not certified and that they've checked it out to ensure it's safe. Early days, of course.

edgyquant 4y ago

You sure? When air flight was pre-commercial it was a dangerous business indeed. Had we been as cautious as with space flight we wouldn’t have had commercial air flights until very recently.