7 ms·

Transformer stockpiles and power grids come under threat

47 points by programd 4y ago

a9h74j 4y ago
I've seen scattered comments that Russia has not yet targetted the highest-voltage transformers in Ukraine, for which stockpiling spares (as reported here) might not apply.
- KennyBlanken 4y ago
  Which makes perfect sense, because Russia wants Ukraine's energy generation/transportation infrastructure.
  - sneak 4y ago
    Do they? Pretty much the only clear and obvious thing it seems Russia wants from this is for Ukraine to not be able to compete with Russia in selling petrochemicals. Given that Russia's GDP is wholly dependent on petrochemical exports, regional competition (even with identical pricing) is bad (perhaps existentially so) for the future of the Russian economy.
    - vasac 4y ago
      Since when Ukraine has petrochemicals to sell in amounts that could cause problems to Russia? Ukraine was just somewhat unreliable transport route for Russian oil/gas and even that was solved with NS1&2.
      - rolenthedeep 4y ago
        There's a ton of oil and gas in the ground in the northeast and south of Ukraine. Potentially they are sitting on a significant fraction of what Russia has, and since it's closer to the EU, it will be cheaper to export in volume. Also I'm fairly sure that Ukraine has the right to deny Russia the right to transport oil through the existing pipelines in their territory, which IIRC is how the majority of Russian exports get to Europe.
- simplyaccont 4y ago
  There is difference between "not targeted" and "failed to blow up". 80% to 90% percent of missiles that russia shoots are intercepted, at which point you don't know what was their final destination. I guess more high value targets (like highest voltage transformers) have better air defense perimeter.
  - jvanderbot 4y ago
    Citation needed on 80%+ That seems excessively high.
    - ljf 4y ago
      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64114784 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64114784 From Dec 29th attack: Ukraine's military said 69 missiles were launched, with air defences intercepting 54 of them. So 78% - I've not looked to see how normal or not that is, perhaps you can?
      - simplyaccont 4y ago
        it's cruise missiles. "slow" flying. people take them out even with MANPADs and German Gepards. somewhat "easy" target. If russia were to start shooting ballistic missles, it will be harder.
        booi 4y ago
        imo unlikely they resort to those. ballistic missiles are a lot more expensive, malfunctions or mistakes could bring NATO into the war and at the very very least, will invite significant missile defense systems from other countries into Ukraine. It would be a mistake.. Now that I think of it, Putin might not give af
        simplyaccont 4y ago
        They do shoot Iskanders, which are short range ballistic. But they are running out of them. This is Ukranian estimations of russian stocks of various types of missiles that are currently been used for bombing Ukraine https://preview.redd.it/oa9z2mdhlv8a1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74059879480acadbca3f8561346df8e58b93b50b https://preview.redd.it/oa9z2mdhlv8a1.jpeg?width=1600&format...
jeffbee 4y ago
Does the U.S. consider it to be a provocation too far to equip Ukraine with weapons systems that can strike these Russian missile batteries in Russia? It is ridiculous that we are tacitly tolerating this war by Russia but apparently we are afraid they will nuke us or someone.
- goalieca 4y ago
  Certain media is reporting strikes on airbases that are bombing civilian infra as “escalation”. There’s definitely no shortage of people who believe Ukraine having territorial sovereignty is too hardline for negotiations.
- ummonk 4y ago
  There are also options for asymmetric tit for tat escalation that Russia could take. E.g. there are numerous militias in the Middle East that would happily accept high-end Russia weaponry to attack American troops.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - NickNameNick 4y ago
    Do the Russians have any equipment to spare? They already repatriated an s300 battery from Syria back to Russia.
- derriz 4y ago
  I've wondered this also. I could understand the initial reluctance for western powers to supply such weapons. But the complexion of the war, it seems to me, has changed considerably with most Russian long range weapon fire now directed at civilian targets. This Russian tactic must constitute a war crime and so I feel the case for supporting the defence against these weapons is much stronger.
- simplyaccont 4y ago
  Most of russian launched missiles are either airborne or launched from ships in Black Sea or Kasipan Sea. Also a bunch of iranian drones. The "only" land missile batteries in russian is S300 in Belgorode area that shoot at Kharkiv direction.
fffrantz 4y ago
Just to give more context, transformers can be enormous (as high as a 3 storey building, weighing hundreds of tons when loaded with all their necessary oil) and as such, their shipping is an endeavor in itself. The TSO I work at has started to switch to in-place building, where all the components are shipped to the final destination and the transformer is assembled directly in the substation. Also, lead times are apparently really long since everything is custom made.
trebligdivad 4y ago
Some of the international power links are HV DC now; is there any opportunity to do the same inside large countries to avoid some of the largest transformers?
- fffrantz 4y ago
  This would not solve the issue and might even worsen it. HVDC converter stations are absolutely massive and necessary to interconnect the HVDC line with the rest of the AC grid, making them larger targets than even the largest autotransformers (i.e. 750kV to 330kV like they seem to have in Ukraine).
- Karliss 4y ago
  If openinframap can be trusted, there are quite a few HVDC lines across India and China already, some in US, Canada and Brazil. It's not just the international underwater cables that use them. Not sure if avoiding large transformers is sufficient reason for using HVDC lines. HVDC conversion stations still need big transformers in addition to giant semiconductors and other high power electronic components which aren't exactly cheap or widely available either.
- NickNameNick 4y ago
  Hvdc systems still have transformers on the AC side.
mikewarot 4y ago
A shift to container sized truck-transportable transformers, such as this[1] that can be ganged in parallel to achieve any desired load could help allow the economies of scale on the production side make up for the slightly less efficient but more robust transformers that would result. [1] https://www.gegridsolutions.com/hvmv_equipment/files/grid-acs-l2-mobile_substations-0311-2016_03-en.pdf https://www.gegridsolutions.com/hvmv_equipment/files/grid-ac...

47 points by programd 4y ago

I've seen scattered comments that Russia has not yet targetted the highest-voltage transformers in Ukraine, for which stockpiling spares (as reported here) might not apply.

KennyBlanken 4y ago
Which makes perfect sense, because Russia wants Ukraine's energy generation/transportation infrastructure.
- sneak 4y ago
  Do they? Pretty much the only clear and obvious thing it seems Russia wants from this is for Ukraine to not be able to compete with Russia in selling petrochemicals. Given that Russia's GDP is wholly dependent on petrochemical exports, regional competition (even with identical pricing) is bad (perhaps existentially so) for the future of the Russian economy.
  - vasac 4y ago
    Since when Ukraine has petrochemicals to sell in amounts that could cause problems to Russia? Ukraine was just somewhat unreliable transport route for Russian oil/gas and even that was solved with NS1&2.
    - rolenthedeep 4y ago
      There's a ton of oil and gas in the ground in the northeast and south of Ukraine. Potentially they are sitting on a significant fraction of what Russia has, and since it's closer to the EU, it will be cheaper to export in volume. Also I'm fairly sure that Ukraine has the right to deny Russia the right to transport oil through the existing pipelines in their territory, which IIRC is how the majority of Russian exports get to Europe.
simplyaccont 4y ago
There is difference between "not targeted" and "failed to blow up". 80% to 90% percent of missiles that russia shoots are intercepted, at which point you don't know what was their final destination. I guess more high value targets (like highest voltage transformers) have better air defense perimeter.
- jvanderbot 4y ago
  Citation needed on 80%+ That seems excessively high.
  - ljf 4y ago
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64114784 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64114784 From Dec 29th attack: Ukraine's military said 69 missiles were launched, with air defences intercepting 54 of them. So 78% - I've not looked to see how normal or not that is, perhaps you can?
    - simplyaccont 4y ago
      it's cruise missiles. "slow" flying. people take them out even with MANPADs and German Gepards. somewhat "easy" target. If russia were to start shooting ballistic missles, it will be harder.
      - booi 4y ago
        imo unlikely they resort to those. ballistic missiles are a lot more expensive, malfunctions or mistakes could bring NATO into the war and at the very very least, will invite significant missile defense systems from other countries into Ukraine. It would be a mistake.. Now that I think of it, Putin might not give af
        simplyaccont 4y ago
        They do shoot Iskanders, which are short range ballistic. But they are running out of them. This is Ukranian estimations of russian stocks of various types of missiles that are currently been used for bombing Ukraine https://preview.redd.it/oa9z2mdhlv8a1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74059879480acadbca3f8561346df8e58b93b50b https://preview.redd.it/oa9z2mdhlv8a1.jpeg?width=1600&format...

jeffbee 4y ago

Does the U.S. consider it to be a provocation too far to equip Ukraine with weapons systems that can strike these Russian missile batteries in Russia? It is ridiculous that we are tacitly tolerating this war by Russia but apparently we are afraid they will nuke us or someone.

goalieca 4y ago
Certain media is reporting strikes on airbases that are bombing civilian infra as “escalation”. There’s definitely no shortage of people who believe Ukraine having territorial sovereignty is too hardline for negotiations.
ummonk 4y ago
There are also options for asymmetric tit for tat escalation that Russia could take. E.g. there are numerous militias in the Middle East that would happily accept high-end Russia weaponry to attack American troops.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- NickNameNick 4y ago
  Do the Russians have any equipment to spare? They already repatriated an s300 battery from Syria back to Russia.
derriz 4y ago
I've wondered this also. I could understand the initial reluctance for western powers to supply such weapons. But the complexion of the war, it seems to me, has changed considerably with most Russian long range weapon fire now directed at civilian targets. This Russian tactic must constitute a war crime and so I feel the case for supporting the defence against these weapons is much stronger.
simplyaccont 4y ago
Most of russian launched missiles are either airborne or launched from ships in Black Sea or Kasipan Sea. Also a bunch of iranian drones. The "only" land missile batteries in russian is S300 in Belgorode area that shoot at Kharkiv direction.

fffrantz 4y ago

Just to give more context, transformers can be enormous (as high as a 3 storey building, weighing hundreds of tons when loaded with all their necessary oil) and as such, their shipping is an endeavor in itself. The TSO I work at has started to switch to in-place building, where all the components are shipped to the final destination and the transformer is assembled directly in the substation. Also, lead times are apparently really long since everything is custom made.

trebligdivad 4y ago

Some of the international power links are HV DC now; is there any opportunity to do the same inside large countries to avoid some of the largest transformers?

fffrantz 4y ago
This would not solve the issue and might even worsen it. HVDC converter stations are absolutely massive and necessary to interconnect the HVDC line with the rest of the AC grid, making them larger targets than even the largest autotransformers (i.e. 750kV to 330kV like they seem to have in Ukraine).
Karliss 4y ago
If openinframap can be trusted, there are quite a few HVDC lines across India and China already, some in US, Canada and Brazil. It's not just the international underwater cables that use them. Not sure if avoiding large transformers is sufficient reason for using HVDC lines. HVDC conversion stations still need big transformers in addition to giant semiconductors and other high power electronic components which aren't exactly cheap or widely available either.
NickNameNick 4y ago
Hvdc systems still have transformers on the AC side.

mikewarot 4y ago

A shift to container sized truck-transportable transformers, such as this[1] that can be ganged in parallel to achieve any desired load could help allow the economies of scale on the production side make up for the slightly less efficient but more robust transformers that would result. [1] https://www.gegridsolutions.com/hvmv_equipment/files/grid-acs-l2-mobile_substations-0311-2016_03-en.pdf https://www.gegridsolutions.com/hvmv_equipment/files/grid-ac...