6 ms·

Key takeaway: >>The reported incidence of (epi-)myocarditis after vaccination is low and the risks of hospitalization and death associated with COVID-19 are st

by kaio 4y ago

Key takeaway: >>The reported incidence of (epi-)myocarditis after vaccination is low and the risks of hospitalization and death associated with COVID-19 are stated to be greater than the recorded risk associated with COVID-19 vaccination [29].

kyleyeats 4y ago
It's actually a non sequitur because you can still get Covid after getting the vaccine. It's not an either/or at all, and in fact most people who got the vaccine did get Covid.
- ROTMetro 4y ago
  But had lower incidence of hospitalization.
nyolfen 4y ago
the more interesting unaddressed question is, for whom? i am a young-ish healthy person, i have basically no risk of ending up in the hospital for covid. what is the risk tradeoff for people similar to me, rather than an abstraction of the entire population? what is the risk tradeoff for a young child, who effectively has zero risk of serious covid?
- aaomidi 4y ago
  Why do people keep thinking young people have no risk of ending up in the hospital for Covid? So many people have, and so many have died?
  - nyolfen 4y ago
    statistically, it is extremely unlikely[0] for an otherwise healthy young person to end up in the hospital for covid, much like myocarditis -- i am simply interested in which is more likely for specific population subsets [0] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6915e3-F1.gif?_=57432 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6915e3-F1.g... -- from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm
    - eli 4y ago
      The numbers are so small that it is hard to say -- several long-term studies are ongoing. All the evidence suggests the risk of Covid is far greater. I'm sure you know this, but covid causes significantly more cases of myocarditis than the vaccine.
      - rednerrus 4y ago
        The vaccine isn't preventing COVID, it's just limiting symptoms. Does it lower the risk of myocarditis from COVID? I just looked. The Vaccine doesn't lower your risk of getting myocarditis if you still become infected by COVID.
        eli 4y ago
        You are wrong. The vaccine absolutely reduces your odds of getting covid in the first place.
        zhrvoj 4y ago
        Getting covid once right after sleeping in same space with all vaccinated. Positive - stayed at home - pretended to be ill. Friend, vaccinated, panicking getting covid after vacc.. Buut..this is Divide and Conquer, don't you see?
        rednerrus 4y ago
        According to https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vb..., During the past 60 days for people 18-49 (the cohort sizes are suspect) COVID cases per 100,000 were as follows: Not fully vaxxed: 98.0 Fully vaxxed: 70.3 Boosted: 92.8 For 49-64 (again with the cohort sizing) per 100,000 cases are: Not fully vaxxed: 90.0 Fully vaxxed: 86.7 Boosted: 96.7 Over 65 cases: Not fully vaxxed: 390.05 Fully vaxxed: 284.2 Boosted: 161.7 So if you're young and healthy if you're boosted, you're hardly getting any protection. If you're middle aged, it doesn't look like you're getting any protection from getting infected and if you're boosted, you may be increasing your risk. If you're old and vulnerable, you should absolutely take the vaccine.
  - addingadimensio 4y ago
    Because it’s true
  - rednerrus 4y ago
    ~26,000 people under 30 have died of COVID since the epidemic began.
    - nyolfen 4y ago
      how many of them had an existing underlying condition? the broad numbers suggest ~85% https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm
- CharlesW 4y ago
  > what is the risk tradeoff for a young child, who effectively has zero risk of serious covid? This is only true if you consider death the only "serious" outcome. Around 25% of children and adolescents who get COVID-19 will get "long COVID", with long-term effects we've just begun to understand. Plenty of "young-ish healthy people" have suffered debilitating effects.
  - nyolfen 4y ago
    surprisingly high! how many of those children were vaccinated?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - blub 4y ago
    Vaccines don’t make a major difference against Long Covid. 14-25% reduction in risk I read. At this efficiency level they’re not an adequate preventive measure.
    - yakak 4y ago
      A 14℅ reduction in something that happens to 5%+ of people measurably and probably lowers your developmental outcome even if it is bellow the threshold of clear measure (a weaker school year that you never quite catch up from could just be random after all.) That's a much bigger deal than whether you have 12 in a million or 24 in a million chance of something that has a 5% chance of being fatal. Giving a population lead poisoning didn't kill any of them outright but cognitive problems in the lead generation is correlated to our higher homicide rates and many of the poorer outcomes in our generation and echo's of its affects in society. I find it interesting that the wider anti-vax demographics overlap heavily with the safety/helicopter parenting that focuses on some extremely unlikely demise as a reason to limit the next generation in ways that will have much higher rates of earlier deaths and reduced lifestyles when considering their overall lifespan.
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  That's not even the complete question though -- because by all accounts, Covid actually results in a higher incidence of myocarditis than the vaccine does.. Given the tenor of the conspiracy theories here, the landscape of questions is too nuanced for HN I guess. Ideally, the vaccine recommendation would weigh: Incidence and seriousness of myocarditis (ISM) naturally / in absence of covid or vaccine, ISM following vaccine, ISM following Covid, ISM after being vaccinated but later catching Covid, relative risk of death / or the other litany of problems following unvaccinated covid infection, same but with vaccinated covid infection and the increased chances of avoiding infection after being vaccinated. It's possible that vaccines are leading to more myocarditis, covid is certainly leading to more myocarditis, most cases of myocarditis are undetected and resolve on their own with no health impact at all.. as expected, weird antivaxxers are harping on point 1 to the detriment of anyone actually interested in public health.
  - nwienert 4y ago
    Not true for men under 40, myocarditis higher from vaccine.
mizzack 4y ago
"stated" is an interesting choice there, especially when using "recorded" a few words later. It reads as being a bit untrusting of the COVID death numbers.
- hammock 4y ago
  Are the covid death numbers trustworthy? (honest Q)
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    They're probably low, if anything. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undercounting_of_COVID-19_pandemic_deaths_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undercounting_of_COVID-19_pand... The chart on https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm shows all cause deaths before and during the pandemic; there's an extremely clear difference, and it coincides closely with the spikes in COVID cases we've seen. This method of reporting avoids all the complexities around "died with COVID" vs "died of COVID", people who never get tested before dying, etc.
    - hammock 4y ago
      >it coincides closely with the spikes in COVID cases we've seen. Aren't there about 100 other confounders that could be in the mix there
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        Which of them do you propose would cause the American public (and others worldwide; we see excess deaths increased everywhere, whether they required masking or closed schools or did very little to mitigate) to suddenly start dying in significantly higher numbers - again, of any cause - for the last two years - and especially so at the same time large COVID waves are occurring?
        flutas 4y ago

by kaio 4y ago

kyleyeats 4y ago

It's actually a non sequitur because you can still get Covid after getting the vaccine. It's not an either/or at all, and in fact most people who got the vaccine did get Covid.

ROTMetro 4y ago
But had lower incidence of hospitalization.

nyolfen 4y ago

the more interesting unaddressed question is, for whom? i am a young-ish healthy person, i have basically no risk of ending up in the hospital for covid. what is the risk tradeoff for people similar to me, rather than an abstraction of the entire population? what is the risk tradeoff for a young child, who effectively has zero risk of serious covid?

aaomidi 4y ago
Why do people keep thinking young people have no risk of ending up in the hospital for Covid? So many people have, and so many have died?
- nyolfen 4y ago
  statistically, it is extremely unlikely[0] for an otherwise healthy young person to end up in the hospital for covid, much like myocarditis -- i am simply interested in which is more likely for specific population subsets [0] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6915e3-F1.gif?_=57432 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6915e3-F1.g... -- from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm
  - eli 4y ago
    The numbers are so small that it is hard to say -- several long-term studies are ongoing. All the evidence suggests the risk of Covid is far greater. I'm sure you know this, but covid causes significantly more cases of myocarditis than the vaccine.
    - rednerrus 4y ago
      The vaccine isn't preventing COVID, it's just limiting symptoms. Does it lower the risk of myocarditis from COVID? I just looked. The Vaccine doesn't lower your risk of getting myocarditis if you still become infected by COVID.
      - eli 4y ago
        You are wrong. The vaccine absolutely reduces your odds of getting covid in the first place.
        zhrvoj 4y ago
        Getting covid once right after sleeping in same space with all vaccinated. Positive - stayed at home - pretended to be ill. Friend, vaccinated, panicking getting covid after vacc.. Buut..this is Divide and Conquer, don't you see?
        rednerrus 4y ago
        According to https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vb..., During the past 60 days for people 18-49 (the cohort sizes are suspect) COVID cases per 100,000 were as follows: Not fully vaxxed: 98.0 Fully vaxxed: 70.3 Boosted: 92.8 For 49-64 (again with the cohort sizing) per 100,000 cases are: Not fully vaxxed: 90.0 Fully vaxxed: 86.7 Boosted: 96.7 Over 65 cases: Not fully vaxxed: 390.05 Fully vaxxed: 284.2 Boosted: 161.7 So if you're young and healthy if you're boosted, you're hardly getting any protection. If you're middle aged, it doesn't look like you're getting any protection from getting infected and if you're boosted, you may be increasing your risk. If you're old and vulnerable, you should absolutely take the vaccine.
- addingadimensio 4y ago
  Because it’s true
- rednerrus 4y ago
  ~26,000 people under 30 have died of COVID since the epidemic began.
  - nyolfen 4y ago
    how many of them had an existing underlying condition? the broad numbers suggest ~85% https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm
CharlesW 4y ago
> what is the risk tradeoff for a young child, who effectively has zero risk of serious covid? This is only true if you consider death the only "serious" outcome. Around 25% of children and adolescents who get COVID-19 will get "long COVID", with long-term effects we've just begun to understand. Plenty of "young-ish healthy people" have suffered debilitating effects.
- nyolfen 4y ago
  surprisingly high! how many of those children were vaccinated?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- blub 4y ago
  Vaccines don’t make a major difference against Long Covid. 14-25% reduction in risk I read. At this efficiency level they’re not an adequate preventive measure.
  - yakak 4y ago
    A 14℅ reduction in something that happens to 5%+ of people measurably and probably lowers your developmental outcome even if it is bellow the threshold of clear measure (a weaker school year that you never quite catch up from could just be random after all.) That's a much bigger deal than whether you have 12 in a million or 24 in a million chance of something that has a 5% chance of being fatal. Giving a population lead poisoning didn't kill any of them outright but cognitive problems in the lead generation is correlated to our higher homicide rates and many of the poorer outcomes in our generation and echo's of its affects in society. I find it interesting that the wider anti-vax demographics overlap heavily with the safety/helicopter parenting that focuses on some extremely unlikely demise as a reason to limit the next generation in ways that will have much higher rates of earlier deaths and reduced lifestyles when considering their overall lifespan.
mikeyouse 4y ago
That's not even the complete question though -- because by all accounts, Covid actually results in a higher incidence of myocarditis than the vaccine does.. Given the tenor of the conspiracy theories here, the landscape of questions is too nuanced for HN I guess. Ideally, the vaccine recommendation would weigh: Incidence and seriousness of myocarditis (ISM) naturally / in absence of covid or vaccine, ISM following vaccine, ISM following Covid, ISM after being vaccinated but later catching Covid, relative risk of death / or the other litany of problems following unvaccinated covid infection, same but with vaccinated covid infection and the increased chances of avoiding infection after being vaccinated. It's possible that vaccines are leading to more myocarditis, covid is certainly leading to more myocarditis, most cases of myocarditis are undetected and resolve on their own with no health impact at all.. as expected, weird antivaxxers are harping on point 1 to the detriment of anyone actually interested in public health.
- nwienert 4y ago
  Not true for men under 40, myocarditis higher from vaccine.

mizzack 4y ago

"stated" is an interesting choice there, especially when using "recorded" a few words later. It reads as being a bit untrusting of the COVID death numbers.

hammock 4y ago
Are the covid death numbers trustworthy? (honest Q)
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  They're probably low, if anything. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undercounting_of_COVID-19_pandemic_deaths_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undercounting_of_COVID-19_pand... The chart on https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm shows all cause deaths before and during the pandemic; there's an extremely clear difference, and it coincides closely with the spikes in COVID cases we've seen. This method of reporting avoids all the complexities around "died with COVID" vs "died of COVID", people who never get tested before dying, etc.
  - hammock 4y ago
    >it coincides closely with the spikes in COVID cases we've seen. Aren't there about 100 other confounders that could be in the mix there
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      Which of them do you propose would cause the American public (and others worldwide; we see excess deaths increased everywhere, whether they required masking or closed schools or did very little to mitigate) to suddenly start dying in significantly higher numbers - again, of any cause - for the last two years - and especially so at the same time large COVID waves are occurring?
      - flutas 4y ago