5 ms·

> Once they figure out how to animate this stuff, it puts the movie industry out of business. I'm also intrigued about the potential of AI-generated animation

by 72mena 4y ago

> Once they figure out how to animate this stuff, it puts the movie industry out of business. I'm also intrigued about the potential of AI-generated animation. However, I don't think the industry would be "out of business", but rather they would simply evolve into a new phase. The established movie industry will most likely have access to the most expensive and performant AI models to make short and long form animations, which would be time and cost prohibiting for hobbyists.

lordfrito 4y ago
Agree, the movie industry won't be out of business overnight. Like IBM, the rumors of "company X" demise are greatly exaggerated, and this tech is far from mature. But my god at first I thought this was real. The clock is now ticking, fast forward several generations, and what are we dealing with here? To me this is a Napster moment. If your job is related to the movie making industry at all, you should be sitting up and taking notice. The industry is a massive/slow behemoth that is a ripe target for this kind of disruption. What's the point of building sets once these tools become photorealistic? Yes we're still in the Uncanny Valley, but that's just a matter of time to solve these kinds of problems (deepfakes anyone?). CGI killed the traditional animation industry. Even Disney shuttered it's traditional animation department. I think we're looking at the same kind of disruption here on the live action side of things. Why have a studio lot at all ? Equipment rental, prop rental, stunt actors, logistics, food service, you name it. Talk about the end of brick and mortar. My guess is it will look a lot like the music industry, which has essentially become all Marketing and Promotion, where the actual production of music has almost become an afterthought. The Marketing arms of the industry may be the only thing that survives the transition in some recognizable form. There will always be a demand for "live action", just like traditional animation is still being done in some niche corners. [1] But that's the exception, not the rule. You'll continue to have enthusiasts using traditional methods for the sake of it. But I think the clock is now ticking. It may be in its primitive infancy, but add time and the tech stack will eventually mature. Lately, more and more, I feel like I'm actually living in the future. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGOneMdjpw4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGOneMdjpw4
tetris11 4y ago
There won't be a sea of new young faces trying to break into a role anymore, or be an extra, or work on the stage crew, since they just won't be able to compete with the AI alternatives. Hollywood thrives on a human pyramid of desperately motivated individuals trying to get noticed and willing to do anything. This might shatter that base, and could have knock on consequences: agent-star exclusivity, entourages, glam mags, production crews. Celebrities will be the same ones we see today, the door for new talent is closing fast.
- lordfrito 4y ago
  This. The trend has already started, tech like this will (eventually) accelerate the transition. People don't go to movies to see movie stars anymore. They go to see Marvel characters. [1] I think we're at the bookend of a transitional era for movies (and for many other things). Transition started with Napster, iPod, Netflix, etc. and ended with the "mainstreamization" of Marvel. Traditional movies are dead, what's left is something that really doesn't look anything like the movie industry I grew up with. Like other art forms (opera, theater, orchestras, etc) traditional movie story telling just isn't where it's at any more, the "masses" have moved on. The industry used to be full of passionate creative types. Now it's full of people working their butts off to get their name somewhere in the 20 minutes of credits at the end of a film, for the prestige of being able to tell their friends they work in the industry. It's a self-sustaining business at this point, full of nepotism, cronyism, and people happy just to stay employed doing whatever it is they do (digital work, setting up lights, renting equipment, managing the logistics). I've asked my cinemaphile friends if they can name a big up and coming director? Who is the next Tarantino? No one has any real answer. At best I get JJ Abrams, who (at 56) is on the tail end of his career, and if anything he's a symptom of the problem (mom and dad worked in the business). It's a group of insiders churning out jobs for their kids and a steady stream of income. Hollywood is nothing more than a brand now. Whatever the "future" is, it's here. More Marvel, less relevance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj8JK6c5x3M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj8JK6c5x3M
  - Slow_Hand 4y ago
    I think perhaps your friends need to expand their circle of interest when it comes to film. The film industry is full brilliant up-and-comers with very distinct voices doing original works: Ari Aster, The Safdie Brothers, Robert Eggers, Daniels, Greta Gerwig, Rose Glass

by 72mena 4y ago

lordfrito 4y ago

Agree, the movie industry won't be out of business overnight. Like IBM, the rumors of "company X" demise are greatly exaggerated, and this tech is far from mature. But my god at first I thought this was real. The clock is now ticking, fast forward several generations, and what are we dealing with here? To me this is a Napster moment. If your job is related to the movie making industry at all, you should be sitting up and taking notice. The industry is a massive/slow behemoth that is a ripe target for this kind of disruption. What's the point of building sets once these tools become photorealistic? Yes we're still in the Uncanny Valley, but that's just a matter of time to solve these kinds of problems (deepfakes anyone?). CGI killed the traditional animation industry. Even Disney shuttered it's traditional animation department. I think we're looking at the same kind of disruption here on the live action side of things. Why have a studio lot at all ? Equipment rental, prop rental, stunt actors, logistics, food service, you name it. Talk about the end of brick and mortar. My guess is it will look a lot like the music industry, which has essentially become all Marketing and Promotion, where the actual production of music has almost become an afterthought. The Marketing arms of the industry may be the only thing that survives the transition in some recognizable form. There will always be a demand for "live action", just like traditional animation is still being done in some niche corners. [1] But that's the exception, not the rule. You'll continue to have enthusiasts using traditional methods for the sake of it. But I think the clock is now ticking. It may be in its primitive infancy, but add time and the tech stack will eventually mature. Lately, more and more, I feel like I'm actually living in the future. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGOneMdjpw4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGOneMdjpw4

tetris11 4y ago

There won't be a sea of new young faces trying to break into a role anymore, or be an extra, or work on the stage crew, since they just won't be able to compete with the AI alternatives. Hollywood thrives on a human pyramid of desperately motivated individuals trying to get noticed and willing to do anything. This might shatter that base, and could have knock on consequences: agent-star exclusivity, entourages, glam mags, production crews. Celebrities will be the same ones we see today, the door for new talent is closing fast.

lordfrito 4y ago
This. The trend has already started, tech like this will (eventually) accelerate the transition. People don't go to movies to see movie stars anymore. They go to see Marvel characters. [1] I think we're at the bookend of a transitional era for movies (and for many other things). Transition started with Napster, iPod, Netflix, etc. and ended with the "mainstreamization" of Marvel. Traditional movies are dead, what's left is something that really doesn't look anything like the movie industry I grew up with. Like other art forms (opera, theater, orchestras, etc) traditional movie story telling just isn't where it's at any more, the "masses" have moved on. The industry used to be full of passionate creative types. Now it's full of people working their butts off to get their name somewhere in the 20 minutes of credits at the end of a film, for the prestige of being able to tell their friends they work in the industry. It's a self-sustaining business at this point, full of nepotism, cronyism, and people happy just to stay employed doing whatever it is they do (digital work, setting up lights, renting equipment, managing the logistics). I've asked my cinemaphile friends if they can name a big up and coming director? Who is the next Tarantino? No one has any real answer. At best I get JJ Abrams, who (at 56) is on the tail end of his career, and if anything he's a symptom of the problem (mom and dad worked in the business). It's a group of insiders churning out jobs for their kids and a steady stream of income. Hollywood is nothing more than a brand now. Whatever the "future" is, it's here. More Marvel, less relevance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj8JK6c5x3M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj8JK6c5x3M
- Slow_Hand 4y ago
  I think perhaps your friends need to expand their circle of interest when it comes to film. The film industry is full brilliant up-and-comers with very distinct voices doing original works: Ari Aster, The Safdie Brothers, Robert Eggers, Daniels, Greta Gerwig, Rose Glass