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I agree with the general premise of your comment, that this is a small sign of the deglobalization which is _already_ under way. But, what are the UUUGE tailwi

I agree with the general premise of your comment, that this is a small sign of the deglobalization which is _already_ under way. But, what are the UUUGE tailwinds benefiting India? India, even more so than China, seems likely to "get old before it gets rich." Its TFR is already below replacement and falling rapidly.

KptMarchewa 4y ago
China's official TFR figures are massively engineered: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-population-smaller-than-stated-and-shrinking-fast-by-yi-fuxian-2022-07 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-populat... India ones are still over replaceability.
- thisiscorrect 4y ago
  https://www.google.com/search?q=india+total+fertility+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=india+total+fertility+rate tells me India's is 2.18, below the modern replacement TFR rate of 2.3 [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#Replacement_rates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#Replaceme...
  - KptMarchewa 4y ago
    India child mortality rate is low enough that it's closer to developed countries rate of 2.1, rather than global rate which you cite.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  With respect to point of original argument: >get old before it gets rich If PRC's official population is as low as Yi thinks, then her per capita GDP is already "secretly" high income at ~14000 USD. She would technically already have gotten rich before old. CCP has incentive to overreport population / underreport GDP to keep "developing" country status. >India ones are still over replaceability Indian overall TFR this year is ~2.0, but more important to break down Indian TFR by state, which will reveal all the high HDI/developmed/educated regions are ~1.6 and trending down, while the underdeveloped and poorly educated regions are still >2. The TLDR is India's demographic divident in her high potential regions is basically over, while low potential regions are generating excess bodies that will have little opportunity develop. Recipe for disaster in democracy, and hence: > India, even more so than China, seems likely to "get old before it gets rich." Of course India is going to grow, by a lot, but much of her high potential demographic divident is already tapped out while stuck in low middle income unless the system get it's shit together.
edwnj 4y ago
I strongly disagree with on demographics, it looks really good for most of the century. Everything including TFR, young population, working population and even elderly populations looks REALLY good. Especially relative to China. Demographics aside, India is a perfect replacement for China in high tech manufacturing. Stability is a huge factor here giving India a massive edge compared to south east asian alternatives. On top of that, you have young highly skilled & literate workforce. A largely discounted wealthy diaspora investing back into the motherland. Huge pool of software talent. IMO it makes for a huge Shenzhen like moment for India. Again, I leave a massive amount of room for India to duck this up but it is India's opportunity to fuck up. The winds have shifted heavily in their favour.

KptMarchewa 4y ago

China's official TFR figures are massively engineered: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-population-smaller-than-stated-and-shrinking-fast-by-yi-fuxian-2022-07 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-populat... India ones are still over replaceability.

thisiscorrect 4y ago
https://www.google.com/search?q=india+total+fertility+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=india+total+fertility+rate tells me India's is 2.18, below the modern replacement TFR rate of 2.3 [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#Replacement_rates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#Replaceme...
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  India child mortality rate is low enough that it's closer to developed countries rate of 2.1, rather than global rate which you cite.
dirtyid 4y ago
With respect to point of original argument: >get old before it gets rich If PRC's official population is as low as Yi thinks, then her per capita GDP is already "secretly" high income at ~14000 USD. She would technically already have gotten rich before old. CCP has incentive to overreport population / underreport GDP to keep "developing" country status. >India ones are still over replaceability Indian overall TFR this year is ~2.0, but more important to break down Indian TFR by state, which will reveal all the high HDI/developmed/educated regions are ~1.6 and trending down, while the underdeveloped and poorly educated regions are still >2. The TLDR is India's demographic divident in her high potential regions is basically over, while low potential regions are generating excess bodies that will have little opportunity develop. Recipe for disaster in democracy, and hence: > India, even more so than China, seems likely to "get old before it gets rich." Of course India is going to grow, by a lot, but much of her high potential demographic divident is already tapped out while stuck in low middle income unless the system get it's shit together.

edwnj 4y ago

I strongly disagree with on demographics, it looks really good for most of the century. Everything including TFR, young population, working population and even elderly populations looks REALLY good. Especially relative to China. Demographics aside, India is a perfect replacement for China in high tech manufacturing. Stability is a huge factor here giving India a massive edge compared to south east asian alternatives. On top of that, you have young highly skilled & literate workforce. A largely discounted wealthy diaspora investing back into the motherland. Huge pool of software talent. IMO it makes for a huge Shenzhen like moment for India. Again, I leave a massive amount of room for India to duck this up but it is India's opportunity to fuck up. The winds have shifted heavily in their favour.