7 ms·

I would estimate maybe 1 in ~7 billion odds (statistical liberties taken)

by aierou 4y ago

WalterBright 4y ago
Jobs was highly successful 3 times (Apple I, Pixar, and his return to Apple). Once could be luck, twice is highly unlikely to be luck, and 3 times? fuggeddabootit
- sys_64738 4y ago
  The sequence of events are linked. NeXT was hugely successful as it became the foundation of OS X and without it he'd never have returned. The individual product lines were a multiple amounts of luck too (Mac, iPod, iPhone, etc).
  - WalterBright 4y ago
    > The sequence of events are linked Not really. Look at Jobs' second coming to Apple. He replaced a sequence of CEOs that all failed to turn Apple around. Jobs turned a near-bankrupt company into the biggest company in the world, with the same crew and technology of the near-bankrupt company. Pixar enormous success was Jobs' doing. Nobody else believed in Pixar. NeXT was a failure, but Jobs found a way to salvage it.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - sys_64738 4y ago
      > NeXT was a failure, but Jobs found a way to salvage it. He sold that failure for $429m.
      - WalterBright 4y ago
        NeXT only sold 50,000 computers, which is considered a failure. Likely the $400m was really to buy Jobs.
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > Jobs was highly successful 3 times (Apple I, Pixar, and his return to Apple). Once could be luck, twice is highly unlikely to be luck, and 3 times? fuggeddabootit So someone who flips a coin an gets heads 10 times in row isn't lucky, they must be good at flipping coins? Jobs certainly had certain talents, but luck was definitely the bigger contributor to his successes. However, lots of people lose sight of that, and almost join a cargo cult centered on him.
  - WalterBright 4y ago
    The odds are zero for even one head if you never flip a coin.
    - tablespoon 4y ago
      > The odds are zero for even one head if you never flip a coin. And that proves what, exactly? If lotto tickets were free, I'd buy a billion.
      - mmplxx 4y ago
        But why would you buy them if they were free? Steve Jobs would have just taken the entire lot.
        AstralStorm 4y ago
        Jobs has his share of failure too, but his initial success allowed him a serious financial and PR buffer. If he failed early, then nobody would know of it or him.
- woojoo666 4y ago
  What about Elon Musk then? Paypal, Tesla, then SpaceX
  - AstralStorm 4y ago
    He was tossed from X.com then because he tried to turn the company into vehicle for his ego. Tesla was made by two other guys, Musk contributed PR, marketing and government money. SpaceX is a lot of public money. If Musk is good at anything, it is taking other people's money and building a cult of personality.
    - nickpp 4y ago
      > If Musk is good at anything, it is taking other people's money and building a cult of personality. That doesn't sound too hard. Why is Elon the only one good at it?!

I would estimate maybe 1 in ~7 billion odds (statistical liberties taken)

by aierou 4y ago

I would estimate maybe 1 in ~7 billion odds (statistical liberties taken)

Jobs was highly successful 3 times (Apple I, Pixar, and his return to Apple). Once could be luck, twice is highly unlikely to be luck, and 3 times? fuggeddabootit

sys_64738 4y ago
The sequence of events are linked. NeXT was hugely successful as it became the foundation of OS X and without it he'd never have returned. The individual product lines were a multiple amounts of luck too (Mac, iPod, iPhone, etc).
- WalterBright 4y ago
  > The sequence of events are linked Not really. Look at Jobs' second coming to Apple. He replaced a sequence of CEOs that all failed to turn Apple around. Jobs turned a near-bankrupt company into the biggest company in the world, with the same crew and technology of the near-bankrupt company. Pixar enormous success was Jobs' doing. Nobody else believed in Pixar. NeXT was a failure, but Jobs found a way to salvage it.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - sys_64738 4y ago
    > NeXT was a failure, but Jobs found a way to salvage it. He sold that failure for $429m.
    - WalterBright 4y ago
      NeXT only sold 50,000 computers, which is considered a failure. Likely the $400m was really to buy Jobs.
tablespoon 4y ago
> Jobs was highly successful 3 times (Apple I, Pixar, and his return to Apple). Once could be luck, twice is highly unlikely to be luck, and 3 times? fuggeddabootit So someone who flips a coin an gets heads 10 times in row isn't lucky, they must be good at flipping coins? Jobs certainly had certain talents, but luck was definitely the bigger contributor to his successes. However, lots of people lose sight of that, and almost join a cargo cult centered on him.
- WalterBright 4y ago
  The odds are zero for even one head if you never flip a coin.
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > The odds are zero for even one head if you never flip a coin. And that proves what, exactly? If lotto tickets were free, I'd buy a billion.
    - mmplxx 4y ago
      But why would you buy them if they were free? Steve Jobs would have just taken the entire lot.
      - AstralStorm 4y ago
        Jobs has his share of failure too, but his initial success allowed him a serious financial and PR buffer. If he failed early, then nobody would know of it or him.
woojoo666 4y ago
What about Elon Musk then? Paypal, Tesla, then SpaceX
- AstralStorm 4y ago
  He was tossed from X.com then because he tried to turn the company into vehicle for his ego. Tesla was made by two other guys, Musk contributed PR, marketing and government money. SpaceX is a lot of public money. If Musk is good at anything, it is taking other people's money and building a cult of personality.
  - nickpp 4y ago
    > If Musk is good at anything, it is taking other people's money and building a cult of personality. That doesn't sound too hard. Why is Elon the only one good at it?!