5 ms·

That's a rather sensationalist headline. Written by an Australian looking at graphs, rather than having a feel for what's going on. I'm sure he's a capable eco

That's a rather sensationalist headline. Written by an Australian looking at graphs, rather than having a feel for what's going on. I'm sure he's a capable economist, but based on what I see, New Zealand is not "plunging". There's definitely a slow down - but I think most businesses are expecting a relatively soft landing. I guess time will tell.

flog 4y ago
Judging by my inability to get into any store at Westgate last weekend due to the crowds, I think we're still a while off "plunging". /anacdata
- formerkrogemp 4y ago
  As it's been explained to me, we're in a demand shock with more or less normal supply constrained by logistics problems.
- billforsternz 4y ago
  Similarly my anecdata is how hard it is to find a car park in the allegedly in decline Wellington CBD and then how difficult it is to find a restaurant that isn't overflowing with happy diners and consequently incapable of accommodating us.
lostlogin 4y ago
If you skim headlines it's much as you say. Interest rates rising (but still around historic averages), falling house prices and high inflation. https://www.rnz.co.nz/topics/business-economy https://www.rnz.co.nz/topics/business-economy
- potatochup 4y ago
  > falling house prices Good?
  - john2x 4y ago
    Good for the wealthy. Middle-class still can't buy because of stricter lending rules and increasing interest rates. Middle-class who FOMO'd in the last 2 years will see their interest rates double and even triple when they refinance in the next months. With inflation and cost of living rises recently, that bump up in their mortgage payments is really going to hurt. Meanwhile, those with the cash can just scoop up houses (if/when they want to). Silver lining is younger and future generations might not be completely and utterly f'd.
  - tmnvix 4y ago
    Overall, yes, very. For some not so much. Talking with my landlord the other week, they said that they regretted not selling the house last year when they moved. It's lost 15k every week this year on average (according to homes.co.nz estimates). That's almost 30%. For people like me, it's a good thing. Interest rates are higher, sure, but a smaller deposit is needed and for most people I know that have been looking to buy it's the raising of the deposit that has been the biggest hurdle.
    - Grimburger 4y ago
      Investments aren't meant to be risk free.
      - lostlogin 4y ago
        That's exactly it though. For many it's as much a home as an investment.
        tuatoru 4y ago
        That is what is wrong with using housing as an investment class.
  - lostlogin 4y ago
    Yes. But there will be losers. Some of this I'm fine with but hurting first home buyers and those who need a home to live in is crap.
plantain 4y ago
I'm not commenting if they're wrong in this case in particular, but Macrobusiness's business model is sensational/doomer headlines funnelling into their private newsletter. They may look prescient if you read the last years publications, but they well and truly live up to the joke "Economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions."
SturgeonsLaw 4y ago
Macrobusiness is the Zero Hedge of Australia. They are permabears, often with a reasonable financial case for the claims they're making, but they definitely start from the premise that the sky is falling, then look for data that corroborates that perspective.

flog 4y ago

Judging by my inability to get into any store at Westgate last weekend due to the crowds, I think we're still a while off "plunging". /anacdata

formerkrogemp 4y ago
As it's been explained to me, we're in a demand shock with more or less normal supply constrained by logistics problems.
billforsternz 4y ago
Similarly my anecdata is how hard it is to find a car park in the allegedly in decline Wellington CBD and then how difficult it is to find a restaurant that isn't overflowing with happy diners and consequently incapable of accommodating us.

lostlogin 4y ago

If you skim headlines it's much as you say. Interest rates rising (but still around historic averages), falling house prices and high inflation. https://www.rnz.co.nz/topics/business-economy https://www.rnz.co.nz/topics/business-economy

potatochup 4y ago
> falling house prices Good?
- john2x 4y ago
  Good for the wealthy. Middle-class still can't buy because of stricter lending rules and increasing interest rates. Middle-class who FOMO'd in the last 2 years will see their interest rates double and even triple when they refinance in the next months. With inflation and cost of living rises recently, that bump up in their mortgage payments is really going to hurt. Meanwhile, those with the cash can just scoop up houses (if/when they want to). Silver lining is younger and future generations might not be completely and utterly f'd.
- tmnvix 4y ago
  Overall, yes, very. For some not so much. Talking with my landlord the other week, they said that they regretted not selling the house last year when they moved. It's lost 15k every week this year on average (according to homes.co.nz estimates). That's almost 30%. For people like me, it's a good thing. Interest rates are higher, sure, but a smaller deposit is needed and for most people I know that have been looking to buy it's the raising of the deposit that has been the biggest hurdle.
  - Grimburger 4y ago
    Investments aren't meant to be risk free.
    - lostlogin 4y ago
      That's exactly it though. For many it's as much a home as an investment.
      - tuatoru 4y ago
        That is what is wrong with using housing as an investment class.
- lostlogin 4y ago
  Yes. But there will be losers. Some of this I'm fine with but hurting first home buyers and those who need a home to live in is crap.

plantain 4y ago

I'm not commenting if they're wrong in this case in particular, but Macrobusiness's business model is sensational/doomer headlines funnelling into their private newsletter. They may look prescient if you read the last years publications, but they well and truly live up to the joke "Economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions."

SturgeonsLaw 4y ago

Macrobusiness is the Zero Hedge of Australia. They are permabears, often with a reasonable financial case for the claims they're making, but they definitely start from the premise that the sky is falling, then look for data that corroborates that perspective.