6 ms·

How do you define 'high-tech' here? Would a 'low-tech' nation be able to build a space station like this? China has a lot of systemic issues stemming from cor

How do you define 'high-tech' here? Would a 'low-tech' nation be able to build a space station like this? China has a lot of systemic issues stemming from corruption and nepotism, but they also have a large population and a culture of investing in the education of their children. It isn't a coincidence that there is a huge number of Asians at elite US colleges, which would be even higher if affirmative action wasn't so prevalent. Its only a matter of time before China will catch up to the US and reach technology parity.

bayesian_horse 4y ago
Much of the countryside is still doing subsistence agriculture, for one thing. "Catching up" means China is growing faster than the west, both in economy and technological know-how. But at present China is only marginally out-growing the West, even using the CCP numbers.
- zmaurelius 4y ago
  Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. The US does have the advantage in that high performing individuals on the level of Einstein have a higher chance of emerging due to much more personal freedom and social mobility, but that is difficult to account for because someone like Einstein may or may not emerge in the next 100 years.
  - nordsieck 4y ago
    > Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. Why do you think that's a reasonable assumption to make?
    - zmaurelius 4y ago
      Upon closer examination, it may not be. There is some force multiplier there that I am not accounting for and cannot because there isn't really a good unit of measurement for technological progress or research speed. What seems intuitively obvious is that a country with zero STEM graduates isn't making much headway in research unless they recruit immigrants, so there should be some correlation with the number of STEM graduates and speed of technological advancement.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    But STEM graduates from China really aren't the same. And they aren't working in the kind of system that would promote progress. Or even select for performance properly. Additionally it's not like every Chinese high school student has the same access to higher education. It does depend on location, wealth and the guanxi of his parents. Overall the economic growth is clearly faltering. And with a GDP growth rate that is only one or two percentage points ahead of "the West" the catching up is going to take a lot longer. It's quite the same with education, which is just another industry among many. China is running into a glass ceiling because of its system. Additionally there is an economic world war raging right now, mostly against Russia. But China is increasingly getting on the wrong side of this, with much of the world opposing China.

bayesian_horse 4y ago

Much of the countryside is still doing subsistence agriculture, for one thing. "Catching up" means China is growing faster than the west, both in economy and technological know-how. But at present China is only marginally out-growing the West, even using the CCP numbers.

zmaurelius 4y ago
Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. The US does have the advantage in that high performing individuals on the level of Einstein have a higher chance of emerging due to much more personal freedom and social mobility, but that is difficult to account for because someone like Einstein may or may not emerge in the next 100 years.
- nordsieck 4y ago
  > Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. Why do you think that's a reasonable assumption to make?
  - zmaurelius 4y ago
    Upon closer examination, it may not be. There is some force multiplier there that I am not accounting for and cannot because there isn't really a good unit of measurement for technological progress or research speed. What seems intuitively obvious is that a country with zero STEM graduates isn't making much headway in research unless they recruit immigrants, so there should be some correlation with the number of STEM graduates and speed of technological advancement.
- bayesian_horse 4y ago
  But STEM graduates from China really aren't the same. And they aren't working in the kind of system that would promote progress. Or even select for performance properly. Additionally it's not like every Chinese high school student has the same access to higher education. It does depend on location, wealth and the guanxi of his parents. Overall the economic growth is clearly faltering. And with a GDP growth rate that is only one or two percentage points ahead of "the West" the catching up is going to take a lot longer. It's quite the same with education, which is just another industry among many. China is running into a glass ceiling because of its system. Additionally there is an economic world war raging right now, mostly against Russia. But China is increasingly getting on the wrong side of this, with much of the world opposing China.