7 ms·

> Except substitute “down the street” with “30 km away on the other side of a river”, and notice that everybody who got sick initially was next to the market, n

> Except substitute “down the street” with “30 km away on the other side of a river”, and notice that everybody who got sick initially was next to the market, none of them anywhere near the lab. > So the lab-leak hypothesis is: this virus created at the lab accidentally escaped to someone who subsequently only infected people on the other side of town. But this isn't necessarily how it works, at all. The Wuhan market is one of Wuhan's most population-dense areas, in close proximity to three hospitals where the first cases were identified, and was therefore the concentration for infection-tracing. In other words, the dataset for early cases was based on a belief that the market was where the infection was spreading, rather than the location of a spreading event that came from elsewhere in the city. Even pneumonia cases that were reported were only post-hoc assigned as probably covid if they were in close proximity to the market.

jacobolus 4y ago
Again, it’s not impossible or even implausible that the spread could have happened like that, or that there were cases elsewhere that went unrecognized. But that’s not nearly the same as flippantly describing this as the lab just “down the street” from the market. The possibility hasn’t been incontrovertibly ruled out (and maybe never can be at this point), and it’s important to do independent investigations and examine the lab’s research, etc. It’s just not considered by most experts to be the most likely possibility. As a geographical comparison, it would be like having a new disease outbreak where all of the known cases for the first several weeks were in Brooklyn, NY and concluding that the source could have been a lab in Newark, NJ. It’s possible, but not the first place to look.
- junofan 4y ago
  The “lab leak hypothesis” refers to the lab literally down the street, as per the WHO report. The lab was moved to that location about a week before the outbreak at the wet market. The WHO report speculates perhaps an accident occurred during the move. It does not refer to the WIV as you think, again as per the WHO report.
  - jacobolus 4y ago
    This entire conversation (the article, the posts here, and in general the speculation about a lab leak possibility, comments about US grant money, etc. etc.) is explicitly about the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Which WHO report are you thinking of? The 2021 WHO report called the lab leak possibility “extremely unlikely”. This more recent report from 4 months ago merely calls for more investigation into laboratories in the area and more transparency: https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/scientific-advisory-group-on-the-origins-of-novel-pathogens/sago-report-09062022.pdf?sfvrsn=42b55bbc_1&download=true https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/scientific-adv... If you are interested in Covid origins look at this NPR story from March https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/03/1083751272/striking-new-evidence-points-to-seafood-market-in-wuhan-as-pandemic-origin-point https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/03/1083751... Which refers to this paper in Science, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348750/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348750/

jacobolus 4y ago

Again, it’s not impossible or even implausible that the spread could have happened like that, or that there were cases elsewhere that went unrecognized. But that’s not nearly the same as flippantly describing this as the lab just “down the street” from the market. The possibility hasn’t been incontrovertibly ruled out (and maybe never can be at this point), and it’s important to do independent investigations and examine the lab’s research, etc. It’s just not considered by most experts to be the most likely possibility. As a geographical comparison, it would be like having a new disease outbreak where all of the known cases for the first several weeks were in Brooklyn, NY and concluding that the source could have been a lab in Newark, NJ. It’s possible, but not the first place to look.

junofan 4y ago
The “lab leak hypothesis” refers to the lab literally down the street, as per the WHO report. The lab was moved to that location about a week before the outbreak at the wet market. The WHO report speculates perhaps an accident occurred during the move. It does not refer to the WIV as you think, again as per the WHO report.
- jacobolus 4y ago
  This entire conversation (the article, the posts here, and in general the speculation about a lab leak possibility, comments about US grant money, etc. etc.) is explicitly about the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Which WHO report are you thinking of? The 2021 WHO report called the lab leak possibility “extremely unlikely”. This more recent report from 4 months ago merely calls for more investigation into laboratories in the area and more transparency: https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/scientific-advisory-group-on-the-origins-of-novel-pathogens/sago-report-09062022.pdf?sfvrsn=42b55bbc_1&download=true https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/scientific-adv... If you are interested in Covid origins look at this NPR story from March https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/03/1083751272/striking-new-evidence-points-to-seafood-market-in-wuhan-as-pandemic-origin-point https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/03/1083751... Which refers to this paper in Science, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348750/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348750/