6 ms·
An almost risk-free way to money in the stock market is to put most of your money in fixed income while apportioning a small % in long dated options. Eg. you t
by furiouslol 18y ago
An almost risk-free way to money in the stock market is to put most of your money in fixed income while apportioning a small % in long dated options.
Eg. you think Morgan Stanley is dirt cheap at current levels ($10) and you are willing to invest $100,000 in them.
Action 1: You bought $100,000 worth of MS shares at $10 each
Action 2: You bought $90,000 in bonds that yields 11%. You bought $10,000 worth of Jan 2010 MS 5 call options at $7 each.
Scenario 1: MS gets nationalized or goes bankrupt
Action 1: You would have lost almost all of your $100,000 investment.
Action 2: If you hold out until your bond mature, you'll get back your $100,000 principal after 1 year. Your options is worthless.
Scenario 2: MS goes up to $30
Action 1: Your investment is now worth $300,000
Action 2: You get $100,000 from your bonds and your $7 options is now worth $18. So your investment is worth $125,000.
So Action 1 is very volatile and risky. Your profit range from -100% to 200%.
Action 2 allows you to sleep soundly at night, even during current market conditions. Your profit range from 0% to 25%.
Hey not bad at all. In the worst case, you'll have at least preserved your capital.
- netcan 18y agoAssuming both scenarios are equally likely: Option 1 Average ROI = 50% Option 1 Average ROI = 12.5% High risk premium. A good time to take risks?.. if you can afford it.
- furiouslol 18y agoNot for MS. The probability of MS getting nationalized or going bankrupt is 90%. So it's 0.9 * 0 + 0.1 * 3 = 0.3 = -70%. Whoops.
- netcan 18y agoProbably not 0 is it?
- swombat 18y agoScenario 3: The bond issuer defaults because of the sub-prime crisis, and MS is nationalised. Woopsie daisies.
- furiouslol 18y agoHaha. Yeah. That's why i inserted the word 'almost' before 'risk-free'