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Hear, hear! Tired of seeing these tirelessly dumb takes about expected value theory's supposed flaws or its psychological dimension. Poker players make bets ba
by mjdowney 4y ago
Hear, hear! Tired of seeing these tirelessly dumb takes about expected value theory's supposed flaws or its psychological dimension.
Poker players make bets based on bank roll size and very good understanding of expected value. They either use Kelly criterion[1] or develop competing heuristics for value at risk[2].
Plenty of areas where psychology adds an interesting human dimension to decision making, but this and other risk-neutrality scenarios are not part of this category!
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion#Criticism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion#Criticism
[2] http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/cs286r/courses/fall12/papers/Thorpe_KellyCriterion2007.pdf http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/cs286r/courses/fall12/papers/Tho...