7 ms·
It seems silly to be worried about this sort of thing given to low likelihood of a crash in the first place. Most measures of flight risk are in "flight hours",
by jamesbkel 15y ago
It seems silly to be worried about this sort of thing given to low likelihood of a crash in the first place.
Most measures of flight risk are in "flight hours", so it's hard to make a direct single-flight measure. But most of the sources I was able to find quickly ranged from about 1/1MM to 1/10MM, largely depending on the airlines and countries out of which they are operating. I'll use 1/5MM for my purposes (if anyone has a better idea, pipe in).
So, if one were to look at the survival rates in the chart as "per flight" versus "per crash", it would be.
First Class: 49% * (1/5MM) = .0000098%
Ahead of Wing: 56% * (1/5MM) = .0000112%
Over Wing: 56% * (1/5MM) = .0000112%
Rear: 69% * (1/5MM) = .0000138%
[edit: cleaned up for readability]
- JoeAltmaier 15y agoUm, thats a pretty low chance of survival. In my experience, its closer to 0.999991 or so?
- jamesbkel 15y agoHa, thanks for the correction. Was too caught up in the numbers :p
- jamesbkel 15y agoCorrection: as JoeAltmaier pointed out, I should have written something along the lines of "failure rate" or "hazard rate". Clearly a "survival rate" like that would make no sense.
- meric 15y ago>> First Class: 49% * (1/5MM) = .0000098% >> Rear: 69% * (1/5MM) = .0000138% Thanks for putting the per-flight risk numbers here, but these two numbers there still feel odd.