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That sounds a bit rude, but I'll try to answer anyway. No, I don't have the statistics at hand but I think we can agree that a lot of people go through financia

That sounds a bit rude, but I'll try to answer anyway. No, I don't have the statistics at hand but I think we can agree that a lot of people go through financial hardship during a recession - basically what a recession means. What part of my comment do you disagree with exactly? That people, in general, overestimate their financial security and capacity to overcome recessions?

vorpalhex 4y ago
I disagree with this: > First of all, the recessions tend to last longer than most people expect/plan for. Statistically, it will turn out their 'secure' jobs will be less 'secure' than expected. Meanwhile their emergency funds will start shrinking (slowly at first, then all at once) due to loss of purchasing power & eventual job loss. Those predictions are not supported by the data, and are distinct from your description of them. I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words. I am skeptical that you can forecast the length of the recession, job loss, or changes in consumer behavior.
- samsonradu 4y ago
  Yes, my 'statistics' were implied. I've always seen HN as a place where people can write their opinions even if they're not backed by official statistics. This is not the St. Louis FED website. My opinion is that recessions are worse than people expect because if they weren't people would see right through them and keep the money flowing (spending/investing). > I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words. No problem if you disagree, it would be nice if you elaborate your point though. What exactly do you expect from a recession? What does your data say? I'd also like to point out that Economics is not really an exact science, even with a ton of data at hand the predictions that economists make are wrong quite often. Specially during the past 2-3 years predictions have been quite bad - fiscal/monetary stimulus doesn't add much to inflation, if it does it will be transitory etc. That's one of the reasons we're in this mess.

vorpalhex 4y ago

I disagree with this: > First of all, the recessions tend to last longer than most people expect/plan for. Statistically, it will turn out their 'secure' jobs will be less 'secure' than expected. Meanwhile their emergency funds will start shrinking (slowly at first, then all at once) due to loss of purchasing power & eventual job loss. Those predictions are not supported by the data, and are distinct from your description of them. I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words. I am skeptical that you can forecast the length of the recession, job loss, or changes in consumer behavior.

samsonradu 4y ago
Yes, my 'statistics' were implied. I've always seen HN as a place where people can write their opinions even if they're not backed by official statistics. This is not the St. Louis FED website. My opinion is that recessions are worse than people expect because if they weren't people would see right through them and keep the money flowing (spending/investing). > I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words. No problem if you disagree, it would be nice if you elaborate your point though. What exactly do you expect from a recession? What does your data say? I'd also like to point out that Economics is not really an exact science, even with a ton of data at hand the predictions that economists make are wrong quite often. Specially during the past 2-3 years predictions have been quite bad - fiscal/monetary stimulus doesn't add much to inflation, if it does it will be transitory etc. That's one of the reasons we're in this mess.