8 ms·
not entirely tautological. the probability that something bad happens tomorrow if we do X today for the first time is very different than the probability that
by cupofpython 4y ago
not entirely tautological. the probability that something bad happens tomorrow if we do X today for the first time is very different than the probability that something bad happens tomorrow if we do X today GIVEN weve been doing X every day for 50 years.
It is still insufficient to say nothing bad will happen, of course
- sitkack 4y agoThats not the argument. The one you are making is the same one people make when they conflate weather and climate.
- cupofpython 4y agoConditional probability applies to many things