7 ms·

Curious if you have any reading suggestion on how complex systems fail?

• nraford 4y ago
  The two iconic texts are: - "The Collapse of Complex Societies" by Joseph Tainter (Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Archaeology/dp/052138673X https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Ar...) - "Normal Accidents" by Chuck Perrow (Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/Normal-Accidents-Living-High-Risk-Technologies/dp/0691004129 https://www.amazon.com/Normal-Accidents-Living-High-Risk-Tec...) Tainter deals directly with the Roman Empire, but the nutshell is the cost of complexity begins to outweigh its returns, requiring more and more resources just to maintain the status quo, until the entire thing becomes weak and susceptible to failures large and small. - "Panarchy: Understanding Human and Natural Systems" (Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/Panarchy-Understanding-Transformations-Natural-Systems/dp/1559638575 https://www.amazon.com/Panarchy-Understanding-Transformation...) is also a fantastic book drawing from ecosystem science and proposes a general model for this. It's pretty well accepted in ecological circles but has been criticised for a lack of empirical data. The general model is the same as Tainter's though. - "The Logic of Failure" by Dietrich Dorner is also a classic! (https://www.amazon.com/Logic-Failure-Recognizing-Avoiding-Situations/dp/0201479486 https://www.amazon.com/Logic-Failure-Recognizing-Avoiding-Si...) Well worth reading all of the above.