5 ms·

There may be a faster fall-off than you'd think, because of feedback effects. Same way film cameras stopped being popular and then you couldn't get the films, o

There may be a faster fall-off than you'd think, because of feedback effects. Same way film cameras stopped being popular and then you couldn't get the films, or get them developed, so they got more unpopular, repeat until extinct. If fuel stations start closing down and you can't get the parts, it won't matter if fuel cars have decades of good service life ahead.

adrianN 4y ago
That is likely true for rich countries, but typically old cars get shipped to poorer countries where they continue to run for another decade or so. The infrastructure there will see good use for a while longer.
- normie3000 4y ago
  > where they continue to run for another decade or so Or another 50 years. The modern western disposable culture isn’t global, although is certainly envied by many who don’t have it.
  - adrianN 4y ago
    Of course some cars live essentially forever somewhere, but I think the fraction that passes the thirty year mark is rather small.
- JulianMorrison 4y ago
  It's the oil infrastructure that will affect them, because it's global. If that goes away...
  - wongarsu 4y ago
    It won't go away, but there's good chances fuel gets a lot more expensive as production scales back.
    - JulianMorrison 4y ago
      Which is another feedback loop, high cost, shrinking demand, shrinking supply, rising cost. Also oil has high fixed costs. Stations, tanker trucks, refineries. Fewer customers carrying them means they rise as a percentage of purchase price.
- ciupicri 4y ago
  Assuming you can easily get parts.
bambax 4y ago
Yes, that's what I'm thinking too. It's a vicious circle (or maybe a virtuous one?) but once fuel stations start closing in droves it will become very impractical to own a petrol car.
- zbrozek 4y ago
  That cycle will undoubtedly be slower for vehicles than cameras. Much larger, much more expensive population, covering a broader range of niche cases. I think very highly of my EV, but I'm not under the illusion that all fossil fueled vehicles will evaporate quickly. Certainly I expect another 10-15 years out of my 22-year-old truck.
  - Symbiote 4y ago
    A 22 year old van is already too old to be driven in many European cities. For example, vans must be manufactured on 1 January 2007 or later to be used in Copenhagen. In July the date will become 1 January 2012 [1]. That doesn't yet apply to cars, and I think the truck counts as a car. It does apply in some cities in Germany, where the limit depends on the fuel -- petrol cars are often limited to 30 years (1992), diesel to 2007. I expect these regulations to tighten as electric cars become widespread, and the various exemptions to become more stringent. [1] https://miljoezoner.dk/en/regulations-and-vehicles/regulation-for-vans/ https://miljoezoner.dk/en/regulations-and-vehicles/regulatio... And https://urbanaccessregulations.eu/ https://urbanaccessregulations.eu/
    - zbrozek 4y ago
      Probably, but I still expect it to be slower than the film camera sunset. If memory serves, it took about a decade for film to evaporate once film camera sales were dominated by digital cameras. I think it'll take 2-3 decades for transportation electricity to do the same to petrol. It's unfortunate, then, that cessation of ICE car sales is so far away.
- mateo1 4y ago
  A petrol stations running costs are very low. They break even with 2% margins. Even if they go away, a 2m^3 tank at home will last you for a year or more. And if your typical full tank range of 500-600km is not enough, you can toss a few fuel cans in the trunk and travel across the continent without refueling. The only way ICEs will go away is by hostile legislation, being regulated and taxed to death purely for ideological reasons, as is happening.

adrianN 4y ago

That is likely true for rich countries, but typically old cars get shipped to poorer countries where they continue to run for another decade or so. The infrastructure there will see good use for a while longer.

normie3000 4y ago
> where they continue to run for another decade or so Or another 50 years. The modern western disposable culture isn’t global, although is certainly envied by many who don’t have it.
- adrianN 4y ago
  Of course some cars live essentially forever somewhere, but I think the fraction that passes the thirty year mark is rather small.
JulianMorrison 4y ago
It's the oil infrastructure that will affect them, because it's global. If that goes away...
- wongarsu 4y ago
  It won't go away, but there's good chances fuel gets a lot more expensive as production scales back.
  - JulianMorrison 4y ago
    Which is another feedback loop, high cost, shrinking demand, shrinking supply, rising cost. Also oil has high fixed costs. Stations, tanker trucks, refineries. Fewer customers carrying them means they rise as a percentage of purchase price.
ciupicri 4y ago
Assuming you can easily get parts.

bambax 4y ago

Yes, that's what I'm thinking too. It's a vicious circle (or maybe a virtuous one?) but once fuel stations start closing in droves it will become very impractical to own a petrol car.

zbrozek 4y ago
That cycle will undoubtedly be slower for vehicles than cameras. Much larger, much more expensive population, covering a broader range of niche cases. I think very highly of my EV, but I'm not under the illusion that all fossil fueled vehicles will evaporate quickly. Certainly I expect another 10-15 years out of my 22-year-old truck.
- Symbiote 4y ago
  A 22 year old van is already too old to be driven in many European cities. For example, vans must be manufactured on 1 January 2007 or later to be used in Copenhagen. In July the date will become 1 January 2012 [1]. That doesn't yet apply to cars, and I think the truck counts as a car. It does apply in some cities in Germany, where the limit depends on the fuel -- petrol cars are often limited to 30 years (1992), diesel to 2007. I expect these regulations to tighten as electric cars become widespread, and the various exemptions to become more stringent. [1] https://miljoezoner.dk/en/regulations-and-vehicles/regulation-for-vans/ https://miljoezoner.dk/en/regulations-and-vehicles/regulatio... And https://urbanaccessregulations.eu/ https://urbanaccessregulations.eu/
  - zbrozek 4y ago
    Probably, but I still expect it to be slower than the film camera sunset. If memory serves, it took about a decade for film to evaporate once film camera sales were dominated by digital cameras. I think it'll take 2-3 decades for transportation electricity to do the same to petrol. It's unfortunate, then, that cessation of ICE car sales is so far away.
mateo1 4y ago
A petrol stations running costs are very low. They break even with 2% margins. Even if they go away, a 2m^3 tank at home will last you for a year or more. And if your typical full tank range of 500-600km is not enough, you can toss a few fuel cans in the trunk and travel across the continent without refueling. The only way ICEs will go away is by hostile legislation, being regulated and taxed to death purely for ideological reasons, as is happening.