>It doesn't matter if he's guaranteed to reveal the goat or not Yes, it does. this is the entire point behind the popularity of the Monty Hall problem. It is

>It doesn't matter if he's guaranteed to reveal the goat or not Yes, it does. this is the entire point behind the popularity of the Monty Hall problem. It is counter-intuitive and feels like overthinking, but it is truth. I described the situation pretty clearly (imo). I did not need to think about it much at all, though it did take some thought to describe it clearly. I can tell you, without much thought, having been trained thoroughly in probability and statistics, it is 50-50 if a door is opened randomly to reveal a Goat. You can switch if it makes you feel better - because it is 50-50 so you wont be hurting yourself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability there are other examples that make it more clear why condition matters.