It seems to me the only reason to not predict an economic downturn is the belief that the economy is unpredictable. Almost a type of religious belief in the ab

It seems to me the only reason to not predict an economic downturn is the belief that the economy is unpredictable. Almost a type of religious belief in the absolute stochasticity of all possible states of the economic system. "Maybe the gods will favor us and leave a few favorable draws in the urn. Only the gods can know"