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Taleb has a paper arguing Bitcoins expected long term value is infact 0: https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204 https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204

madsbuch 4y ago
> In its current version, ... One should be vary careful about not conflating Crypto as a whole and Bitcoin. I agree with Taleb on the assessment of Bitcoins, but I think we need to wait a couple of years before we can assess the success of Crypto as a whole.
- rglullis 4y ago
  Yes, that is key. His call-out is mostly against those saying that crypto works as a "store of value", which has become the party line from BTC maxis after it has become clear that it failed as a currency.
csomar 4y ago
Without a timeline, this is quite useless. Everything we know and have today will have an expected value of 0 at some point (including you)
- 98Windows 4y ago
  I believe Taleb's timeline is not as long term as the heat death of the universe or end of civilisation. He's saying that a rational market should value bitcoin at 0 because it has 0 utility. If I buy shares in Walmart I receive a dividend, if I buy shares in Amazon I know they will do share buy backs with their profits and hence increase the value of my investment. Bitcoin has zero value or utility for me, unless I can sell it to someone else before it eventually goes to 0.
imtringued 4y ago
To be fair, it's the same with fiat. For every dollar there is also a dollar of debt. If all debts were paid off, you would end up with nothing, except everything we created in the real world. Now, the question shouldn't be how much value is in the accounting system, because it obviously stores nothing, it only delegates the management of the store of value in the real world. The question should be, does Bitcoin help the real world economy? I honestly don't know but I am leaning towards no. The lightning story could in theory result in a "happy end" but I haven't seen any real successes or at least I am not being made aware of them. After all, El Salvador isn't the success story that everyone hoped for.
- 98Windows 4y ago
  > The question should be, does Bitcoin help the real world economy? That's a fine question too and I would argue that it doesn't help the real world economy. It just consumes energy for 0 utility except to facilitate ponzi schemes and money laundering

madsbuch 4y ago

> In its current version, ... One should be vary careful about not conflating Crypto as a whole and Bitcoin. I agree with Taleb on the assessment of Bitcoins, but I think we need to wait a couple of years before we can assess the success of Crypto as a whole.

rglullis 4y ago
Yes, that is key. His call-out is mostly against those saying that crypto works as a "store of value", which has become the party line from BTC maxis after it has become clear that it failed as a currency.

csomar 4y ago

Without a timeline, this is quite useless. Everything we know and have today will have an expected value of 0 at some point (including you)

98Windows 4y ago
I believe Taleb's timeline is not as long term as the heat death of the universe or end of civilisation. He's saying that a rational market should value bitcoin at 0 because it has 0 utility. If I buy shares in Walmart I receive a dividend, if I buy shares in Amazon I know they will do share buy backs with their profits and hence increase the value of my investment. Bitcoin has zero value or utility for me, unless I can sell it to someone else before it eventually goes to 0.

imtringued 4y ago

To be fair, it's the same with fiat. For every dollar there is also a dollar of debt. If all debts were paid off, you would end up with nothing, except everything we created in the real world. Now, the question shouldn't be how much value is in the accounting system, because it obviously stores nothing, it only delegates the management of the store of value in the real world. The question should be, does Bitcoin help the real world economy? I honestly don't know but I am leaning towards no. The lightning story could in theory result in a "happy end" but I haven't seen any real successes or at least I am not being made aware of them. After all, El Salvador isn't the success story that everyone hoped for.

98Windows 4y ago
> The question should be, does Bitcoin help the real world economy? That's a fine question too and I would argue that it doesn't help the real world economy. It just consumes energy for 0 utility except to facilitate ponzi schemes and money laundering