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Where is the evidence that it didn’t work?

by mike_h 4y ago

gitfan86 4y ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-official-says-handling-covid-outbreak-below-expectations-lockdown-2022-04-09/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-official-says-h... Things don't get better from here.
- mike_h 4y ago
  Sounds like they’re only advocating incremental improvements to the current policy? Compare China death rates over the pandemic to basically anywhere else. If saving 5-10 million lives (estimated based on % of US population lost to Covid) doesn’t count as working, what would?
  - pmontra 4y ago
    Of course nobody wants to die before their time and perhaps after one month in ICU but a country the size of China has about 10 million deaths every year (1% of 1 billion.) I wasn't happy to be locked down for 2 months in a much milder way than the people in Shanghai. I'd really change country if my country had a Chinese approach to virus containment because it's going to be a really bad decade. Until China needs their people to work all the time no matter what, then covid will be banned and forgotten.
    - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
      > I'd really change country if my country had a Chinese approach to virus containment No you wouldn't. You'd be locked down in your apartment. Also, your social rating would not permit you to use means of transportation.
  - rajin444 4y ago
    We should be able to weight the cost of saving those lives vs the harm caused to those who would otherwise be fine. If we don’t have those numbers I don’t think we can define what worked and what didn’t. Just looking at raw lives saved (especially when most of those lives are older than average age of death) is too simplistic.
- HWR_14 4y ago
  So your point is that things cannot improve when they are bad because no one can voice a contrarian view, but your evidence that things are bad is Shanghai's vice-mayor advocating contrarian views?
  - gitfan86 4y ago
    My point is that the only way for China to contain Omicron is to increase lockdown measures to the point that many people are dying due to lack of food and healthcare. The alternative is to abandon CovidZero policies completely and go the path of heard immunity. And in China you are not allowed to express those facts, because it means the leaders were wrong to promote CovidZero.
    - HWR_14 4y ago
      I mean, it certainly seems like China could just figure out some way to get the last 5 meters of food delivery solved.

Where is the evidence that it didn’t work?

by mike_h 4y ago

Where is the evidence that it didn’t work?

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-official-says-handling-covid-outbreak-below-expectations-lockdown-2022-04-09/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-official-says-h... Things don't get better from here.

mike_h 4y ago
Sounds like they’re only advocating incremental improvements to the current policy? Compare China death rates over the pandemic to basically anywhere else. If saving 5-10 million lives (estimated based on % of US population lost to Covid) doesn’t count as working, what would?
- pmontra 4y ago
  Of course nobody wants to die before their time and perhaps after one month in ICU but a country the size of China has about 10 million deaths every year (1% of 1 billion.) I wasn't happy to be locked down for 2 months in a much milder way than the people in Shanghai. I'd really change country if my country had a Chinese approach to virus containment because it's going to be a really bad decade. Until China needs their people to work all the time no matter what, then covid will be banned and forgotten.
  - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
    > I'd really change country if my country had a Chinese approach to virus containment No you wouldn't. You'd be locked down in your apartment. Also, your social rating would not permit you to use means of transportation.
- rajin444 4y ago
  We should be able to weight the cost of saving those lives vs the harm caused to those who would otherwise be fine. If we don’t have those numbers I don’t think we can define what worked and what didn’t. Just looking at raw lives saved (especially when most of those lives are older than average age of death) is too simplistic.
HWR_14 4y ago
So your point is that things cannot improve when they are bad because no one can voice a contrarian view, but your evidence that things are bad is Shanghai's vice-mayor advocating contrarian views?
- gitfan86 4y ago
  My point is that the only way for China to contain Omicron is to increase lockdown measures to the point that many people are dying due to lack of food and healthcare. The alternative is to abandon CovidZero policies completely and go the path of heard immunity. And in China you are not allowed to express those facts, because it means the leaders were wrong to promote CovidZero.
  - HWR_14 4y ago
    I mean, it certainly seems like China could just figure out some way to get the last 5 meters of food delivery solved.