7 ms·

My occam's razor thoughts. Most bad viri have origins from humans using animals for food. Aids from bushmeat, 1918 pandemic is thought to be from birds, same wi

by xdrone 4y ago

My occam's razor thoughts. Most bad viri have origins from humans using animals for food. Aids from bushmeat, 1918 pandemic is thought to be from birds, same with the common flu. Just look at the latest bird flu sweeping the world, this one isn't affecting humans, but yet another pandemic from raising animals for food. Most people want to blame a lab, but the obvious answer is more likely imo.

voldacar 4y ago
Consider the following scenarios from a Bayesian perspective: - an outbreak of a novel virus occurs in a city - an outbreak of a novel virus occurs in a city with a virus lab - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 and conducts gain of function research on coronaviruses collected from the wild - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 and infects humans through the ACE2 receptor occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 and conducts gain of function research on coronaviruses collected from the wild, with the goal of creating viruses that can infect human cells through the ACE2 receptor - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 and infects humans through the ACE2 receptor and has a furin cleavage site (not present in RaTG13, SARS, or other similar coronaviruses) occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 and conducts gain of function research on coronaviruses collected from the wild, with the goal of creating viruses that can infect human cells through the ACE2 receptor, and is funded by a group (EcoHealth) which has filed grant applications for research that attempts to insert furin cleavage sites into SARS-like bat coronaviruses - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 and infects humans through the ACE2 receptor and has a furin cleavage site (not present in RaTG13, SARS, or other similar coronaviruses) occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 and conducts gain of function research on coronaviruses collected from the wild, with the goal of creating viruses that can infect human cells through the ACE2 receptor, and is funded by a group (EcoHealth) which has filed grant applications for research that attempts to insert furin cleavage sites into SARS-like bat coronaviruses, and multiple years later no animal reservoir of this novel coronavirus has been found, despite the massive incentives for this. In fact they seemingly haven't even been able to fake it by infecting some wild animals deliberately and claiming that they found the zoonotic origin. I could go on and on but I think you get my point
- relaxing 4y ago
  Now do a good faith attempt at the same exercise for the natural origin hypothesis.
  - Symmetry 4y ago
    Well, Wuhan is a big transportation hub so regardless of the original crossover point it isn't crazy that the first super-spreader event might happen there.
- toomim 4y ago
  This comment is so good that I'm replying to it just so that it appears in my /comments history.
  - jazzyjackson 4y ago
    If you click the time code (“one day ago”) to get the comment on its own page, you should see a “favorite” hyperlink, this will add the comment to a list of your favorites, the link to which is at the bottom of your own profile page. Took me a few years of HN to notice it.
  - voldacar 4y ago
    I am honored!
  - ricksunny 4y ago
    Someone had put together an additive Bayesian estimator for origins study. https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/18631 https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/18631 It’s rudimentary but demonstrates quantitatively how probabilities favoring one origin scenario or another can be reached. Easy to copy-paste it so any set of priors can be applied and collectively estimated, More rigorous treatment can be found at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345753939_Outlines_of_a_probabilistic_evaluation_of_possible_SARS-CoV-2_origins https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345753939_Outlines_... There are other similar types of analyses out there if you google around.
- 4y ago
bigyellow 4y ago
mardifoufs 4y ago
That's not how the occam's razor work though... Also, we just didn't do GoF research or even had virology labs before the 1950-60s.
- jupp0r 4y ago
  Well, it's very likely that the 1977 "russian flu" pandemic was caused by a Chinese lab leak during vaccine research [1]. https://theprint.in/science/lab-leak-is-the-biggest-suspect-in-1977-flu-pandemic-but-it-took-3-decades-to-gain-currency/669907/ https://theprint.in/science/lab-leak-is-the-biggest-suspect-...
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- ImaCake 4y ago
  Like you say, we couldn’t even do GoF when HIV and pandemic influenza became a thing. Why take seriously the feeble efforts of humans to recreate evolution in a lab when the real thing has demonstrated it’s terrifying effectiveness many many times?
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    WE absolutely have done successful GOF research with influenzas and coronavirus. There is a vast literature on the subject.
  - mardifoufs 4y ago
    I don't necessarily disagree, I don't necessarily believe in the lab leak theory. I just think that we don't know, and might never know because we have such a limited understanding of the early days of the virus. Hence why I don't think occam's razor does not apply; we are at a weird crossroad where technology is advanced enough to make it entirely possible for us to "evolve" a virus in a lab yet we also are pretty vulnerable and defenseless against zoonotic viruses in the same way humans have been for hundreds of thousands of years.
temp8964 4y ago
Lab leak events also happened several times. China had three(?) times of SARS leak events. So, what would Occam’s razor say about this?
virissimo 4y ago
There are many variants of Occam's razor, but one commonality among them is that it is for comparing hypotheses that predict the same data (namely, the the simpler one should be preferred). But in the case of COVID-19 lab escape versus zoonotic origin, the latter doesn't predict that the Chinese government and EcoHealth Alliance would attempt a coverup of the virus origins, so we really aren't talking about two hypothesis that explain the (same) data, and therefore this isn't really an appropriate candidate for the application of Occam's razor.
- tryauuum 4y ago
  Chinese government will coverup even if China's lab is not the virus origin. Because their goal is to have a better image of the party. To say it in other words, politicians will bullshit the populace in any case, they do not care if what they're saying is true or false as long as it makes them look better
  - lupire 4y ago
    And same for EcoHealth, which is just a business.

by xdrone 4y ago

voldacar 4y ago

Consider the following scenarios from a Bayesian perspective: - an outbreak of a novel virus occurs in a city - an outbreak of a novel virus occurs in a city with a virus lab - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 and conducts gain of function research on coronaviruses collected from the wild - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 and infects humans through the ACE2 receptor occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 and conducts gain of function research on coronaviruses collected from the wild, with the goal of creating viruses that can infect human cells through the ACE2 receptor - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 and infects humans through the ACE2 receptor and has a furin cleavage site (not present in RaTG13, SARS, or other similar coronaviruses) occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 and conducts gain of function research on coronaviruses collected from the wild, with the goal of creating viruses that can infect human cells through the ACE2 receptor, and is funded by a group (EcoHealth) which has filed grant applications for research that attempts to insert furin cleavage sites into SARS-like bat coronaviruses - an outbreak of a novel coronavirus that is genetically similar to RaTG13 and infects humans through the ACE2 receptor and has a furin cleavage site (not present in RaTG13, SARS, or other similar coronaviruses) occurs in a city with a virus lab that studies coronaviruses under BSL-3 and BSL-2 conditions and contains samples of RaTG13 and conducts gain of function research on coronaviruses collected from the wild, with the goal of creating viruses that can infect human cells through the ACE2 receptor, and is funded by a group (EcoHealth) which has filed grant applications for research that attempts to insert furin cleavage sites into SARS-like bat coronaviruses, and multiple years later no animal reservoir of this novel coronavirus has been found, despite the massive incentives for this. In fact they seemingly haven't even been able to fake it by infecting some wild animals deliberately and claiming that they found the zoonotic origin. I could go on and on but I think you get my point

relaxing 4y ago
Now do a good faith attempt at the same exercise for the natural origin hypothesis.
- Symmetry 4y ago
  Well, Wuhan is a big transportation hub so regardless of the original crossover point it isn't crazy that the first super-spreader event might happen there.
toomim 4y ago
This comment is so good that I'm replying to it just so that it appears in my /comments history.
- jazzyjackson 4y ago
  If you click the time code (“one day ago”) to get the comment on its own page, you should see a “favorite” hyperlink, this will add the comment to a list of your favorites, the link to which is at the bottom of your own profile page. Took me a few years of HN to notice it.
- voldacar 4y ago
  I am honored!
- ricksunny 4y ago
  Someone had put together an additive Bayesian estimator for origins study. https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/18631 https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/18631 It’s rudimentary but demonstrates quantitatively how probabilities favoring one origin scenario or another can be reached. Easy to copy-paste it so any set of priors can be applied and collectively estimated, More rigorous treatment can be found at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345753939_Outlines_of_a_probabilistic_evaluation_of_possible_SARS-CoV-2_origins https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345753939_Outlines_... There are other similar types of analyses out there if you google around.
4y ago

bigyellow 4y ago

mardifoufs 4y ago

That's not how the occam's razor work though... Also, we just didn't do GoF research or even had virology labs before the 1950-60s.

jupp0r 4y ago
Well, it's very likely that the 1977 "russian flu" pandemic was caused by a Chinese lab leak during vaccine research [1]. https://theprint.in/science/lab-leak-is-the-biggest-suspect-in-1977-flu-pandemic-but-it-took-3-decades-to-gain-currency/669907/ https://theprint.in/science/lab-leak-is-the-biggest-suspect-...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
ImaCake 4y ago
Like you say, we couldn’t even do GoF when HIV and pandemic influenza became a thing. Why take seriously the feeble efforts of humans to recreate evolution in a lab when the real thing has demonstrated it’s terrifying effectiveness many many times?
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  WE absolutely have done successful GOF research with influenzas and coronavirus. There is a vast literature on the subject.
- mardifoufs 4y ago
  I don't necessarily disagree, I don't necessarily believe in the lab leak theory. I just think that we don't know, and might never know because we have such a limited understanding of the early days of the virus. Hence why I don't think occam's razor does not apply; we are at a weird crossroad where technology is advanced enough to make it entirely possible for us to "evolve" a virus in a lab yet we also are pretty vulnerable and defenseless against zoonotic viruses in the same way humans have been for hundreds of thousands of years.

temp8964 4y ago

Lab leak events also happened several times. China had three(?) times of SARS leak events. So, what would Occam’s razor say about this?

virissimo 4y ago

There are many variants of Occam's razor, but one commonality among them is that it is for comparing hypotheses that predict the same data (namely, the the simpler one should be preferred). But in the case of COVID-19 lab escape versus zoonotic origin, the latter doesn't predict that the Chinese government and EcoHealth Alliance would attempt a coverup of the virus origins, so we really aren't talking about two hypothesis that explain the (same) data, and therefore this isn't really an appropriate candidate for the application of Occam's razor.

tryauuum 4y ago
Chinese government will coverup even if China's lab is not the virus origin. Because their goal is to have a better image of the party. To say it in other words, politicians will bullshit the populace in any case, they do not care if what they're saying is true or false as long as it makes them look better
- lupire 4y ago
  And same for EcoHealth, which is just a business.