5 ms·

You’re 19? You should be more worried about how to survive the oncoming ecological holocaust instead of the singularity. One is much likelier than the other

You’re 19? You should be more worried about how to survive the oncoming ecological holocaust instead of the singularity. One is much likelier than the other. I believe even an ML algo would come to the same conclusion

mkaic 4y ago
Oh believe me, climate change scares the heck out of me too :) I'm really really really rooting for fusion energy to work out soon and solve the energy crisis, but in the meantime I think we need to hard pivot to as much fission energy as possible, as well as convert to entirely electric transportation and shipping.
- cmsj 4y ago
  I have some bad news for you I'm afraid - fusion is not going to be industrially useful on an ecologically relevant timescale. It's a lot like AGI in its "maybe the next generation will have this, but we won't" property.
  - bobsmooth 4y ago
    General Fusion is building their test plant right now.
    - cmsj 4y ago
      correct, but that doesn't mean they'll necessarily be rolling out thousands of them around the world next year or even in 5 years time. There are tens of thousands of fossil fuel power stations around the world, and we globally consume around 138TWh of non-renewably-produced electricity per year (and growing fast). I used the words "industrially useful" very deliberately. The goal is not to produce one fusion reactor that can run continuously over unity, the goal is to produce tens of thousands of them and have them deployed globally. That is a project that will take decades.
0F 4y ago
The singularity makes climate change look like a picnic.
- paxys 4y ago
  Chances of AI singularity happening in our lifetime x devastation caused by AI singularity Chances of climate crisis happening in our lifetime x devastation caused by climate crisis Which one do you think is higher?
  - 0F 4y ago
    First one. The devastation will be unimaginable and irreversible. At least with climate it will be possible for human kind to hobble forward somehow. And changing the climate would be infinitely easier than putting the AGI genie back in its bottle.
    - umvi 4y ago
      We need some bookies in this thread. A lot of AGI skeptics could get very rich at the expense of those that are absolutely convinced that AGI/singularity is coming soon. I'm willing to put down 10k that "the singularity" (by some agreed upon definition) will not happen by 2050.
      - 0F 4y ago
        2050 is soon…

mkaic 4y ago

Oh believe me, climate change scares the heck out of me too :) I'm really really really rooting for fusion energy to work out soon and solve the energy crisis, but in the meantime I think we need to hard pivot to as much fission energy as possible, as well as convert to entirely electric transportation and shipping.

cmsj 4y ago
I have some bad news for you I'm afraid - fusion is not going to be industrially useful on an ecologically relevant timescale. It's a lot like AGI in its "maybe the next generation will have this, but we won't" property.
- bobsmooth 4y ago
  General Fusion is building their test plant right now.
  - cmsj 4y ago
    correct, but that doesn't mean they'll necessarily be rolling out thousands of them around the world next year or even in 5 years time. There are tens of thousands of fossil fuel power stations around the world, and we globally consume around 138TWh of non-renewably-produced electricity per year (and growing fast). I used the words "industrially useful" very deliberately. The goal is not to produce one fusion reactor that can run continuously over unity, the goal is to produce tens of thousands of them and have them deployed globally. That is a project that will take decades.

0F 4y ago

The singularity makes climate change look like a picnic.

paxys 4y ago
Chances of AI singularity happening in our lifetime x devastation caused by AI singularity Chances of climate crisis happening in our lifetime x devastation caused by climate crisis Which one do you think is higher?
- 0F 4y ago
  First one. The devastation will be unimaginable and irreversible. At least with climate it will be possible for human kind to hobble forward somehow. And changing the climate would be infinitely easier than putting the AGI genie back in its bottle.
  - umvi 4y ago
    We need some bookies in this thread. A lot of AGI skeptics could get very rich at the expense of those that are absolutely convinced that AGI/singularity is coming soon. I'm willing to put down 10k that "the singularity" (by some agreed upon definition) will not happen by 2050.
    - 0F 4y ago
      2050 is soon…