10 ms·

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice

58 points by guard0g 5y ago

nonrandomstring 5y ago
I read the whole piece and my take-away was - China, being very self-interested, will drop Putin at the first sign he's really losing. They need to decide fast and are very split, but it will happen sometime within the next two weeks.
- bradhe 5y ago
  To be more precise, the analysis suggests it’s optimal for it to happen within in the next two weeks. They could remain indecisive.
- belter 5y ago
  Using 2018 Statistics, The United States + EU + ASEAN + Japan represent 49% of China trading, Russia only 2%. The Partners above represent 53% of China exports and Russia only 1,9%. Even taking into account that other strategic considerations will of course guide China decisions, it is once more, another major strategic error on the part of the EU and the US not to use this as leverage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China#List_of_largest_trading_partners_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa...
- blunte 5y ago
  The article comes right out and says that Putin’s effort is a failure, short and long term. Only direct help from China could possibly change that outcome (and that involvement is presented as the less wise position for China to take regarding its self interest).
tomatotomato37 5y ago
I've always wondered what the possibility of China just annexing Russian Siberia in the event their nuclear command is disrupted from civil war or whatever. You can't just have two autocratic superpowers sharing borders without some type of friction
shinryuu 5y ago
It would be interesting if someone could link to more policy discussions that happen China! Drop them here!
- rasengan0 5y ago
  CSIS: What’s Next for the China-Russia Relationship? https://youtu.be/bb2Em3SqeFM https://youtu.be/bb2Em3SqeFM >1 hour TL;DR a delicate balance between supporting its junior partner and its own interests
londons_explore 5y ago
I assume that behind the scenes, negotiations are probably happening, and such negotiations probably involve the payment of money's or other considerations for China to take one or other position... For example, Russia might say "we will sell you oil at 10% below market rate for the next 50 years if you join the war on our side".
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  When the west fully embargoes Russian oil, China will be buying it for whatever discount it wants!
  - iszomer 5y ago
    Thought they already are and to be settled in Euros and not the petrodollar. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-...
- blunte 5y ago
  I doubt in modern times leaders of any country think so long term. Most seem concerned with only their current reign (or in the case of more “capitalistic” countries like US, just one or two election cycles.
  - blip54321 5y ago
    China definitely does.
    - officialjunk 5y ago
      Yes, China may even think the most long term of current governments.
- bawolff 5y ago
  I'm doubtful that russia has anything they can offer to china to make it worth it. Not to mention future promises mean nothing if putin gets ousted.
blunte 5y ago
My summary of TFA: Putin made a grave mistake and cannot win without China’s direct assistance. Putin’s actions have strengthened US stature and position globally, as well as illustrating the importance of NATO. This presumably is exactly the opposite of what Putin desired. China could gain influence and power by helping Russia, but at the cost of international relations. More importantly, it would still be a gamble. Without China’s help, Putin will fail one way or another. China could instead stand with the rest of the world. This would more quickly end the current conflict, and it would make China a more significant international partner. This is the better option.
- belter 5y ago
  But China plays a long game. Let's say Putin would fall, turmoil would ensue, and something close to some kind of democratic or at least autocratic government would emerge. Maybe a kind of soft mix of current Turkey + Hungary, still with some Soviet undertones, but that would get Russia close to Europe. That would mean the end of any China future ambitions for the next 50 years. China build the biggest Navy in the world and for sure not for beautiful parades. To achieve their objectives and keep the current Communist elite in power making money, ( they are not different from the Oligarchs) they need Russia natural resources and a fellow authoritarian in power. China will support Russia.
  - credit_guy 5y ago
    Not if they judge that Russia will squander their support and lose all the same.
  - DyslexicAtheist 5y ago
    Chinese military is in dire need of combat experience. The few missions in Africa in which they deploy troops aren't enough.
  - chaostheory 5y ago
    > But China plays a long game. With Xi in power, I don't feel that they play the long game anymore, or invading Taiwan in the near future wouldn't be in the works. That was only true when it was rule by committee, which is no longer the case. Maybe if Jiang Zemin is ever successful in his assassination attempts there's a chance for China to revert back to CCP committee style rule but I still have doubts. Jiang would still make a better leader than Xi though.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 5y ago
The Blitzkrieg has become a quagmire. Had the Blitzkrieg succeeded, Vlad would have been able to present a fait accompli to the world, endure some more years of sanctions and the world would move on. Pretty much what he pulled off in Chechnya, North Ossetia, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Here we see the Chinese seeing the West has firmly turned against Putin and that China will be better off disavowing themselves from Putin. The article impresses me as a dispassionate summary of the possible outcomes.
rasengan0 5y ago
8 is lucky in Chinese numerology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_numerology#Eight https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_numerology#Eight 4+4 = 8 "4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West." "4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. " I think it is in China's best interests to set Putin aside and let peace and trade flow again. Ukraine goes free and democratic and Russian can make it's own way.
testemailfordg2 5y ago
If you see the chinese yuan dropping in coming days, that's your sign....
dirtyid 5y ago
This piece is getting a lot of attention on western blob sphere because it's "China's Chernobyl" tier fantasy thinking analysis by one of the few pro-west voices in PRC analysis circles. Obviously the piece got censored right away. Like Ren Zhiqiang / Cai Xia, former got purged, latter had to escape to west and now works for lol Hudson Institute copypasting neolib positions. Important to note unlike west where blob expertise i.e. think tank / NGOs has much larger impact on actual policy than in PRC where there's parallel set of internal CCP expertise to draw from. Recent interviews from western China-hands who still have some connection with PRC counterparts (i.e. track 1.5/2/3 diplomacy) after two years of muted people-to-people contact due to covid travel have overwhelming concluded PRC decision makers are hardened their stance that US after Trump/Biden is systematically incapable of being light on PRC again. There's no hope for rapprochement. Hu's analysis that turns every dice roll wildly pro-west certainly won't reach politburo and if it did, his concluding line will certainly elicit a chuckle: > As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West. Believing PRC should (and can) improve relations with US is medically retarded at this point. Let alone "surely win international praise". And to do so freely without any concessions in return knowing full well a contained RU means PRC is next on the chopping block. If West want PRC's help, start by lifting tariffs, removing sanctions, selling EUV machines, stop arming TW. The fact that US has continued pressure on PRC over TW, EU still jerks about IndoPac, while having talks with sanctioned countries like VZ to release oil means there's no point adopting "mainstream" / west position that's actually not mainstream considering more than half world's population are sitting out (including most of ASEAN). Currently PRC has no interest picking sides, and if it had to, it would pick turning east Europe into a prolonged quagmire behind the scenes because EU foreign policy was shifting anti PRC pre UKR anyway. If UKR is the start of a "world [that] is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century", PRC would opt for changes that makes LIO weaker not stronger.
- chaostheory 5y ago
  > Currently PRC has no interest picking sides This isn't true given what's on state media. It's like saying the US is neutral. I don't believe there are any neutral sides at this point if we're being honest.

58 points by guard0g 5y ago

I read the whole piece and my take-away was - China, being very self-interested, will drop Putin at the first sign he's really losing. They need to decide fast and are very split, but it will happen sometime within the next two weeks.

bradhe 5y ago
To be more precise, the analysis suggests it’s optimal for it to happen within in the next two weeks. They could remain indecisive.
belter 5y ago
Using 2018 Statistics, The United States + EU + ASEAN + Japan represent 49% of China trading, Russia only 2%. The Partners above represent 53% of China exports and Russia only 1,9%. Even taking into account that other strategic considerations will of course guide China decisions, it is once more, another major strategic error on the part of the EU and the US not to use this as leverage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China#List_of_largest_trading_partners_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa...
blunte 5y ago
The article comes right out and says that Putin’s effort is a failure, short and long term. Only direct help from China could possibly change that outcome (and that involvement is presented as the less wise position for China to take regarding its self interest).

tomatotomato37 5y ago

I've always wondered what the possibility of China just annexing Russian Siberia in the event their nuclear command is disrupted from civil war or whatever. You can't just have two autocratic superpowers sharing borders without some type of friction

shinryuu 5y ago

It would be interesting if someone could link to more policy discussions that happen China! Drop them here!

rasengan0 5y ago
CSIS: What’s Next for the China-Russia Relationship? https://youtu.be/bb2Em3SqeFM https://youtu.be/bb2Em3SqeFM >1 hour TL;DR a delicate balance between supporting its junior partner and its own interests

londons_explore 5y ago

I assume that behind the scenes, negotiations are probably happening, and such negotiations probably involve the payment of money's or other considerations for China to take one or other position... For example, Russia might say "we will sell you oil at 10% below market rate for the next 50 years if you join the war on our side".

bigodbiel 5y ago
When the west fully embargoes Russian oil, China will be buying it for whatever discount it wants!
- iszomer 5y ago
  Thought they already are and to be settled in Euros and not the petrodollar. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-...
blunte 5y ago
I doubt in modern times leaders of any country think so long term. Most seem concerned with only their current reign (or in the case of more “capitalistic” countries like US, just one or two election cycles.
- blip54321 5y ago
  China definitely does.
  - officialjunk 5y ago
    Yes, China may even think the most long term of current governments.
bawolff 5y ago
I'm doubtful that russia has anything they can offer to china to make it worth it. Not to mention future promises mean nothing if putin gets ousted.

blunte 5y ago

My summary of TFA: Putin made a grave mistake and cannot win without China’s direct assistance. Putin’s actions have strengthened US stature and position globally, as well as illustrating the importance of NATO. This presumably is exactly the opposite of what Putin desired. China could gain influence and power by helping Russia, but at the cost of international relations. More importantly, it would still be a gamble. Without China’s help, Putin will fail one way or another. China could instead stand with the rest of the world. This would more quickly end the current conflict, and it would make China a more significant international partner. This is the better option.

belter 5y ago
But China plays a long game. Let's say Putin would fall, turmoil would ensue, and something close to some kind of democratic or at least autocratic government would emerge. Maybe a kind of soft mix of current Turkey + Hungary, still with some Soviet undertones, but that would get Russia close to Europe. That would mean the end of any China future ambitions for the next 50 years. China build the biggest Navy in the world and for sure not for beautiful parades. To achieve their objectives and keep the current Communist elite in power making money, ( they are not different from the Oligarchs) they need Russia natural resources and a fellow authoritarian in power. China will support Russia.
- credit_guy 5y ago
  Not if they judge that Russia will squander their support and lose all the same.
- DyslexicAtheist 5y ago
  Chinese military is in dire need of combat experience. The few missions in Africa in which they deploy troops aren't enough.
- chaostheory 5y ago
  > But China plays a long game. With Xi in power, I don't feel that they play the long game anymore, or invading Taiwan in the near future wouldn't be in the works. That was only true when it was rule by committee, which is no longer the case. Maybe if Jiang Zemin is ever successful in his assassination attempts there's a chance for China to revert back to CCP committee style rule but I still have doubts. Jiang would still make a better leader than Xi though.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 5y ago

The Blitzkrieg has become a quagmire. Had the Blitzkrieg succeeded, Vlad would have been able to present a fait accompli to the world, endure some more years of sanctions and the world would move on. Pretty much what he pulled off in Chechnya, North Ossetia, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Here we see the Chinese seeing the West has firmly turned against Putin and that China will be better off disavowing themselves from Putin. The article impresses me as a dispassionate summary of the possible outcomes.

rasengan0 5y ago

8 is lucky in Chinese numerology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_numerology#Eight https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_numerology#Eight 4+4 = 8 "4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West." "4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. " I think it is in China's best interests to set Putin aside and let peace and trade flow again. Ukraine goes free and democratic and Russian can make it's own way.

testemailfordg2 5y ago

If you see the chinese yuan dropping in coming days, that's your sign....

dirtyid 5y ago

This piece is getting a lot of attention on western blob sphere because it's "China's Chernobyl" tier fantasy thinking analysis by one of the few pro-west voices in PRC analysis circles. Obviously the piece got censored right away. Like Ren Zhiqiang / Cai Xia, former got purged, latter had to escape to west and now works for lol Hudson Institute copypasting neolib positions. Important to note unlike west where blob expertise i.e. think tank / NGOs has much larger impact on actual policy than in PRC where there's parallel set of internal CCP expertise to draw from. Recent interviews from western China-hands who still have some connection with PRC counterparts (i.e. track 1.5/2/3 diplomacy) after two years of muted people-to-people contact due to covid travel have overwhelming concluded PRC decision makers are hardened their stance that US after Trump/Biden is systematically incapable of being light on PRC again. There's no hope for rapprochement. Hu's analysis that turns every dice roll wildly pro-west certainly won't reach politburo and if it did, his concluding line will certainly elicit a chuckle: > As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West. Believing PRC should (and can) improve relations with US is medically retarded at this point. Let alone "surely win international praise". And to do so freely without any concessions in return knowing full well a contained RU means PRC is next on the chopping block. If West want PRC's help, start by lifting tariffs, removing sanctions, selling EUV machines, stop arming TW. The fact that US has continued pressure on PRC over TW, EU still jerks about IndoPac, while having talks with sanctioned countries like VZ to release oil means there's no point adopting "mainstream" / west position that's actually not mainstream considering more than half world's population are sitting out (including most of ASEAN). Currently PRC has no interest picking sides, and if it had to, it would pick turning east Europe into a prolonged quagmire behind the scenes because EU foreign policy was shifting anti PRC pre UKR anyway. If UKR is the start of a "world [that] is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century", PRC would opt for changes that makes LIO weaker not stronger.

chaostheory 5y ago
> Currently PRC has no interest picking sides This isn't true given what's on state media. It's like saying the US is neutral. I don't believe there are any neutral sides at this point if we're being honest.