6 ms·

One of the scenarios I keep thinking about is what if either side uses just one nuke. They let the other side know that they're going to use just one and do it.

One of the scenarios I keep thinking about is what if either side uses just one nuke. They let the other side know that they're going to use just one and do it. Do you respond to that with your full arsenal? Do you go tit-for-tat? Do you just let them get away with it?

lumost 5y ago
This was a common war game scenario in the Cold War. NATO semi-intentionally adopted the strategy that they would have enough troops in western Europe to fight an invasion, but that they would need tactical nukes to block the invasion. NATO war games were then focused on how the conflict escalates, with the general conclusion that both sides would engage in tit for tat strikes until some threshold was triggered and a full nuclear war broke out (Use it or lose it scenario). A close example to your scenario was South Africa's nuclear arsenal as well as (potentially) Israel's. The game theory somewhat works out if the belligerent party only has a few nukes and would be unable to escalate to full nuclear war due to lack of weapons. It's considered a dangerous and unstable scenario as such parties could actually use nukes without fear of MAD. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_ma... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory#Coercive_credibility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory#Coercive_cre...
- Mirioron 5y ago
  Is this why the US has focused so much on the ability to shoot down ICBMs? Because if they can shoot down even just a few tit-for-tat doesn't really work against them anymore.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    No, that just pushes the opponent to throw all of their stuff at you.
tacon 5y ago
Echoes of the plot of Fail Safe[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail_Safe_(1964_film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail_Safe_(1964_film)
tedunangst 5y ago
This is why you have a preprogrammed unstoppable retaliatory doomsday counter weapon. Just remember to inform the other side about it before first strike.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  In case someone doesn't get it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Strangelove https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Strangelove

lumost 5y ago

This was a common war game scenario in the Cold War. NATO semi-intentionally adopted the strategy that they would have enough troops in western Europe to fight an invasion, but that they would need tactical nukes to block the invasion. NATO war games were then focused on how the conflict escalates, with the general conclusion that both sides would engage in tit for tat strikes until some threshold was triggered and a full nuclear war broke out (Use it or lose it scenario). A close example to your scenario was South Africa's nuclear arsenal as well as (potentially) Israel's. The game theory somewhat works out if the belligerent party only has a few nukes and would be unable to escalate to full nuclear war due to lack of weapons. It's considered a dangerous and unstable scenario as such parties could actually use nukes without fear of MAD. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_ma... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory#Coercive_credibility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory#Coercive_cre...

Mirioron 5y ago
Is this why the US has focused so much on the ability to shoot down ICBMs? Because if they can shoot down even just a few tit-for-tat doesn't really work against them anymore.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  No, that just pushes the opponent to throw all of their stuff at you.

tacon 5y ago

Echoes of the plot of Fail Safe[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail_Safe_(1964_film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail_Safe_(1964_film)

tedunangst 5y ago

This is why you have a preprogrammed unstoppable retaliatory doomsday counter weapon. Just remember to inform the other side about it before first strike.

jacquesm 5y ago
In case someone doesn't get it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Strangelove https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Strangelove