6 ms·

It's basically a Mexican standoff, right? In the timeframe of months to years, Europe needs to buy Russian oil and gas as much as Russia needs to sell them. Nei

by jaspax 5y ago

It's basically a Mexican standoff, right? In the timeframe of months to years, Europe needs to buy Russian oil and gas as much as Russia needs to sell them. Neither side can unilaterally break off the relationship without suffering massive harm. Getting to full energy independence with renewables is a project that will take a decade or more, not something that you can do in the timeframe of the current conflict.

sgjohnson 5y ago
> Getting to full energy independence with renewables is a project that will take a decade or more. Try at least 2-3 decades. Personally I'm still a firm believer in nuclear power.
- ct0 5y ago
  You aren't alone thinking nuclear is the best outcome in the renewables plan forward.
- WJW 5y ago
  Not that I'm against nuclear, but getting to full energy independence with nuclear seems like it would need several decades as well. For example, the Blue Castle project in Utah (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Castle_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Castle_Project) started on the drawing board in 2007, started looking for contractors in 2016, hopes to start construction in 2023 and hopes to be fully operational in 2030. That is if construction is not delayed in any way, which seems unlikely given the schedule so far tbh. The US alone has over 200 coal plants operating today, so even if the new nuclear plant would be on average twice as large you would need more than a hundred new nuclear power plants. It seems wildly unlikely that they could be constructed within three decades. Also that is in the US alone, a country with a relatively large knowledge base surrounding all things nuclear. Most of the rest of the world has no chance of replacing even a fraction of their power generation needs with nuclear, so for them renewables will be the way to go.
  - trasz 5y ago
    Most of the rest of the world is China, and they are building some 20 nuclear power plants at the moment.
    - WJW 5y ago
      China is at ~1.4 billion people, not even close to "most of the rest of the world". There are about 7.9 billion people alive atm, so that would make more than 80% of the worlds' population being outside China.
  - oceanofsolaris 5y ago
    China needs five to six years from starting to build a nuclear reactor to making it operational. I don’t see why western countries should be inherently unable to do this. They currently don’t want to (because they don’t need to and people dislike nuclear power). But if they cared, they should be able to.
MobiusHorizons 5y ago
If they can make it through this winter, there may be time before next winter to ship LNG there from the US. I know the US is expanding their capability of LNG shipping, but I don't know how the capacity compares to the size of the need in Europe. I think the question will be if LNG exports from other countries can make up the difference in time.

by jaspax 5y ago

sgjohnson 5y ago

> Getting to full energy independence with renewables is a project that will take a decade or more. Try at least 2-3 decades. Personally I'm still a firm believer in nuclear power.

ct0 5y ago
You aren't alone thinking nuclear is the best outcome in the renewables plan forward.
WJW 5y ago
Not that I'm against nuclear, but getting to full energy independence with nuclear seems like it would need several decades as well. For example, the Blue Castle project in Utah (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Castle_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Castle_Project) started on the drawing board in 2007, started looking for contractors in 2016, hopes to start construction in 2023 and hopes to be fully operational in 2030. That is if construction is not delayed in any way, which seems unlikely given the schedule so far tbh. The US alone has over 200 coal plants operating today, so even if the new nuclear plant would be on average twice as large you would need more than a hundred new nuclear power plants. It seems wildly unlikely that they could be constructed within three decades. Also that is in the US alone, a country with a relatively large knowledge base surrounding all things nuclear. Most of the rest of the world has no chance of replacing even a fraction of their power generation needs with nuclear, so for them renewables will be the way to go.
- trasz 5y ago
  Most of the rest of the world is China, and they are building some 20 nuclear power plants at the moment.
  - WJW 5y ago
    China is at ~1.4 billion people, not even close to "most of the rest of the world". There are about 7.9 billion people alive atm, so that would make more than 80% of the worlds' population being outside China.
- oceanofsolaris 5y ago
  China needs five to six years from starting to build a nuclear reactor to making it operational. I don’t see why western countries should be inherently unable to do this. They currently don’t want to (because they don’t need to and people dislike nuclear power). But if they cared, they should be able to.

MobiusHorizons 5y ago

If they can make it through this winter, there may be time before next winter to ship LNG there from the US. I know the US is expanding their capability of LNG shipping, but I don't know how the capacity compares to the size of the need in Europe. I think the question will be if LNG exports from other countries can make up the difference in time.