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I am really hoping everything goes well in this mission; we are so close to being able to send astronauts into space through commercial companies. Space X is do

by nhoss2 15y ago

I am really hoping everything goes well in this mission; we are so close to being able to send astronauts into space through commercial companies. Space X is doing things cheaper and faster than any government has. These commercial companies are going to revolutionize spaceflight. While they are doing all of this they need to develop their heavy lift rocket as fast as possible with the goal of landing a man on mars within 10 years. Elon Musk himself said a few days ago that we need to go to mars and it is possible for them to do this "as early as 2018". The reason for the quick timeline is because funding and political slaughter for space programs is more likely to happen as time goes on and as new presidents come in or some new economic trouble happens. Following the success of the ISS, going to Mars should be an international endavour. It needs to be a goal not for one country, but the whole human race to become a multi-planetary species and go to Mars.

Joakal 15y ago
The international endeavour won't happen for a while due to government regulations dating back to Cold War [0]. An open space community decided to split into two space groups, USA and Non-USA [1]. [0] http://www.reddit.com/r/tothemoon/comments/jca8h/itar_is_a_terrible_thorn_in_our_side_lets_have_a/ http://www.reddit.com/r/tothemoon/comments/jca8h/itar_is_a_t... [1] http://www.reddit.com/r/tothemoon/comments/ji9e1/review_of_the_open_itar_meeting_that_occurred_on/ http://www.reddit.com/r/tothemoon/comments/ji9e1/review_of_t...
demallien 15y ago
You know, SpaceX has made such a huge difference to launch costs, that it is imaginable that the US could do a solo Mars mission. To give a real-world example (well, sort of): Juno was recently launched aboard an Atlas V, which launches for roughly the same price as the Falcon Heavy will in a year or so's time. Juno gets placed into an orbit that will take it out beyond Mars' orbit, before returning to the Earth for a gravity-assist flyby. The flyby is necessary to double the payload that they could otherwise send to Jupiter. Falcon Heavy can left 3 times the payload of an Atlas V, so Juno could have increased in size, and avoided the 2 and a half years it will take to execute the Earth flyby manoeuvre, all for the same price. Alternatively, a spacecraft 3 times the weight of Juno (which weighed in at 8000 pounds / 3500Kg) could be sent direct to Mars. What could you do with all of that? Well, the Mars Direct mission requires about 140 000kg, to be assembled in orbit. That's about 14 Falcon Heavy launches, which has a total price tag of about US$1.4 billion. Of course, on top of that there are in-orbit assembly costs, and the costs of the actual Mars-bound hardware, - which would roughly double the price tag to US$3 billion. Without Falcon Heavy, that mission cost is doubled to US$ 6 billion. I wonder what Juno would have looked like if it had three times the payload to play with...
- nhoss2 15y ago
  One thing that is too common in these aerospace related budget estimates is that they go up. I am trying not to be pessimistic, but I have a feeling that their launch costs might go up a little bit. Even if it does it, their prices would still be groundbreaking nonetheless. I bought Dr. Zubrin's book on mars direct (its great!) and lets say that somehow the cost to send three spacecraft with the capability to come back (including development costs) is $10 billion (which I am pretty sure is a super under estimate but the spacex way might say otherwise). To put that into perspective google could have funded a full fledged manned mars mission and still save $2 billion to spare by not buying motorola... But this is definitely possible even with nasa's reduced budget now that the shuttle is retired.
  - mkr-hn 15y ago
    I doubt NASA will get to keep the money they were using for the shuttle given the austerity-crazed culture that's overtaken Congress.
    - onedognight 15y ago
      Austerity? They planned to reduce the deficit by 10% in ten years and only 1% next year. Call me when they touch the debt. As it is they are still spending extravagantly.
      - mkr-hn 15y ago
        Can we not get into that here? It always degrades into a political slugfest, and it's worse on HN because too many believe they're above politics.
        InclinedPlane 15y ago
        You raised the subject, now you're just being rude.
        15y ago
riledhel 15y ago
Your comment really made my day. Thank you very much, I needed the positive mood today.
Symmetry 15y ago
It might not be that easy. See the discussion on this Rocketpunk Manifesto blog entry for more information than you ever wanted on the near term prospects for Mars missions: http://www.rocketpunk-manifesto.com/2011/08/destination-mars.html http://www.rocketpunk-manifesto.com/2011/08/destination-mars...

by nhoss2 15y ago

Joakal 15y ago

The international endeavour won't happen for a while due to government regulations dating back to Cold War [0]. An open space community decided to split into two space groups, USA and Non-USA [1]. [0] http://www.reddit.com/r/tothemoon/comments/jca8h/itar_is_a_terrible_thorn_in_our_side_lets_have_a/ http://www.reddit.com/r/tothemoon/comments/jca8h/itar_is_a_t... [1] http://www.reddit.com/r/tothemoon/comments/ji9e1/review_of_the_open_itar_meeting_that_occurred_on/ http://www.reddit.com/r/tothemoon/comments/ji9e1/review_of_t...

demallien 15y ago

You know, SpaceX has made such a huge difference to launch costs, that it is imaginable that the US could do a solo Mars mission. To give a real-world example (well, sort of): Juno was recently launched aboard an Atlas V, which launches for roughly the same price as the Falcon Heavy will in a year or so's time. Juno gets placed into an orbit that will take it out beyond Mars' orbit, before returning to the Earth for a gravity-assist flyby. The flyby is necessary to double the payload that they could otherwise send to Jupiter. Falcon Heavy can left 3 times the payload of an Atlas V, so Juno could have increased in size, and avoided the 2 and a half years it will take to execute the Earth flyby manoeuvre, all for the same price. Alternatively, a spacecraft 3 times the weight of Juno (which weighed in at 8000 pounds / 3500Kg) could be sent direct to Mars. What could you do with all of that? Well, the Mars Direct mission requires about 140 000kg, to be assembled in orbit. That's about 14 Falcon Heavy launches, which has a total price tag of about US$1.4 billion. Of course, on top of that there are in-orbit assembly costs, and the costs of the actual Mars-bound hardware, - which would roughly double the price tag to US$3 billion. Without Falcon Heavy, that mission cost is doubled to US$ 6 billion. I wonder what Juno would have looked like if it had three times the payload to play with...

nhoss2 15y ago
One thing that is too common in these aerospace related budget estimates is that they go up. I am trying not to be pessimistic, but I have a feeling that their launch costs might go up a little bit. Even if it does it, their prices would still be groundbreaking nonetheless. I bought Dr. Zubrin's book on mars direct (its great!) and lets say that somehow the cost to send three spacecraft with the capability to come back (including development costs) is $10 billion (which I am pretty sure is a super under estimate but the spacex way might say otherwise). To put that into perspective google could have funded a full fledged manned mars mission and still save $2 billion to spare by not buying motorola... But this is definitely possible even with nasa's reduced budget now that the shuttle is retired.
- mkr-hn 15y ago
  I doubt NASA will get to keep the money they were using for the shuttle given the austerity-crazed culture that's overtaken Congress.
  - onedognight 15y ago
    Austerity? They planned to reduce the deficit by 10% in ten years and only 1% next year. Call me when they touch the debt. As it is they are still spending extravagantly.
    - mkr-hn 15y ago
      Can we not get into that here? It always degrades into a political slugfest, and it's worse on HN because too many believe they're above politics.
      - InclinedPlane 15y ago
        You raised the subject, now you're just being rude.
        15y ago

riledhel 15y ago

Your comment really made my day. Thank you very much, I needed the positive mood today.

Symmetry 15y ago

It might not be that easy. See the discussion on this Rocketpunk Manifesto blog entry for more information than you ever wanted on the near term prospects for Mars missions: http://www.rocketpunk-manifesto.com/2011/08/destination-mars.html http://www.rocketpunk-manifesto.com/2011/08/destination-mars...