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> Why isn't the stock market reacting at all? I always respond to this the same way. What reaction _should_ the market have? And is that reaction 100% (or even
by jsight 5y ago
> Why isn't the stock market reacting at all?
I always respond to this the same way. What reaction _should_ the market have? And is that reaction 100% (or even say... 75%) predictable based upon the available information today? And then if it is, what consequence would that have on your ability to invest immediately afterward?
So, my answers are... the market should largely ignore short term (<5 year) factors and the response should largely be unpredictable based upon the behavior of the masses. Most investments should have time horizons that make these movements irrelevant to 10+ year profit estimates.
But I feel like a lot of people want responses that are more like this: The market should drop precipitously based upon the information that short term profits (and thus P/E ratios) will fall. Based upon this, I should be able to immediately invest all available cash and reap a windfall when mean reversion occurs within 1-3 years.
I think one of these is a more realistic scenario than the other, regardless of which world we'd like to live in.
- Qub3d 5y agoExcellent advice! This is a similar response to what I tell new investors who think they're smart buying high-dividend stocks right before the payout, then sell after. The market prices in expected movements! (P.S. on HN, you can use asterisks around words instead of underscores for italics)