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Even comparing excess deaths can be misleading, because you're comparing deaths during lockdown to deaths in previous years not in lockdown. In other words, you
by sleavey 5y ago
Even comparing excess deaths can be misleading, because you're comparing deaths during lockdown to deaths in previous years not in lockdown. In other words, you're not isolating a single variable (SARS-CoV-2 pandemic vs no pandemic) but rather multiple (pandemic plus non pharmaceutical interventions vs no pandemic).
- roenxi 5y agoWe can sanity check the number fairly easily. COVID has a case fatality rate of ~0.5%, so if everyone in the US had caught the coronavirus there would be around 150k excess deaths. Probably multiply that by a 80% fudge factor to at least acknowledge that some of people who die of COVID were probably frail to start with and likely to get taken out by normal disease and aging.
- doctor_eval 5y ago0.5% of 300,000,000 is 1.5 million dead.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]