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Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Been Told

19 points by dbroockman 5y ago

chiefalchemist 5y ago
If the jab mitigates the symptoms but the (unaware) carrier can still transmit the virus to others, then doesn't that help the virus? It doesn't stop it, it gives it cover, a disguise.
- tsjq 5y ago
  similar to how in 2020, the asymptomatic persons were more risky (they wouldn't know they have the virus, and so spread more compared to symptomatic people who would take precautions); next the vaccinated people might be in the same category. once again comes to the spot: more vaccine coverage is needed.
- HarryHirsch 5y ago
  Let's be real: what helps the virus is politicians (actually commercial landlords, the politicians are just the mouthpiece) wanting to go back to normal. Proper public messaging would insist on continued social distancing instead of going back to schools and offices in the fall.
  - newbamboo 5y ago
    Yes. The economic aspect has figured into calculations but there’s been no transparency around that fact. The news media are the worst in this regard. For those of us with very high risk loved ones who refuse to accept any facts that aren’t broadcast in full force through the usual dumbed down news outlets which I won’t name directly, it’s been a horrifyingly stressful month.
    - HarryHirsch 5y ago
      the usual dumbed down news outlets You mean NPR where recently Atul Gawande was calling the pandemic a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" and urged everyone to take the vaccine? He's right in a way, being vaccinated keeps you out of hospital, but it won't prevent you that much from catching the disease and developing post-covid syndrome. And you can still spread the virus in your community.
      - jhayward 5y ago
        > He's right in a way, being vaccinated keeps you out of hospital, but it won't prevent you that much from catching the disease and developing post-covid syndrome This is misinformation. From the data we have available, vaccination prevents at least 80% of symptomatic infections with the Delta variant. To characterize an 80% reduction in risk as “not that much” is simply trying to get people to give up on vaccines.
        HarryHirsch 5y ago
        You see papers claiming an effectiveness against symptomatic infection against Delta of ~ 50 %, and the rise of cases in Israel as well as the Provincetown outbreak should really make us concerned. The vaccine still prevents hospitalization and death, so that's reason enough to take it. But on its own it isn't enough to get R_0 below 1. The way everyone is behaving, they are asking for outbreak after outbreak.
        newbamboo 5y ago
        Yes, it’s at 47% now if I’m up to date.
        chiefalchemist 5y ago
        Wasn't it up around 75% in Providence RI? Yes, an outlier but it's indicative of the potential.
        newbamboo 5y ago
        Guess it’s 42% for Pfizer according to this preprint.[1] That’s July, so presumably even lower now. I thought I saw 47% somewhere more official but can’t find it now. [1]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v... “ However, in July, the effectiveness against infection was considerably lower for mRNA-1273 (76%, 95% CI: 58-87%) with an even more pronounced reduction in effectiveness for BNT162b2 (42%, 95% CI: 13-62%).”
  - Mattasher 5y ago
    Sweden "went back to normal" a long time ago. Their Covid deaths rate is near zero. The "it's bad so we need to x" reflex, where x is any of masking mandates, social distancing, or especially take kids out of school, is anti-science and anti-human.
    - Eldt 5y ago
      Didn't Sweden have a lot more deaths than their neighbours?
      - voakbasda 5y ago
        Small price to pay for herd immunity and normalcy, if it actually worked.
        theodric 5y ago
        Spoken like someone who didn't die. Also ghoulish beyond belief.
        nradov 5y ago
        So far 99.86% of Swedes didn't die of COVID-19. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
        HarryHirsch 5y ago
        How many have permanently reduced lung function, vascular disease or are living with long covid? The death rate isn't the only metric, especially now with the vaccine.
      - nradov 5y ago
        What do you count as a neighbor? Sweden is 39th in the world by per capita death rate. Many other European countries have higher death rates, including some countries that took more extensive pandemic control measures. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  - nradov 5y ago
    You can't seriously expect people to continue social distancing. The virus is here to stay. It can't be eradicated because the vaccines aren't fully sterilizing and there are also animal hosts. The vast majority of us will eventually get infected regardless of what infection control measures we take. We'll just have to accept the risk and move on. Fortunately the vaccines are very safe and highly effective at preventing deaths.
    - blueprint 5y ago
      It's not that hard to go outside to cafes and still social distance - but people are not doing it. That's the difference.
      - nradov 5y ago
        It's sad how some HN users seem to live in bubbles and are just completely disconnected from the way that most regular people live. Humans are social animals and most won't continue social distancing regardless of the consequences. There's more to life than cafes. Most of us don't even have an outdoor cafe nearby. Also weather is a thing. You're welcome to complain that this is terrible and it shouldn't be that way. But at some point we have to put aside wishful thinking and exist in the real world.
        blueprint 5y ago
        Sure, base your entire argument on knowing absolutely nothing about me. You can still go to your climbing gym and climb and socialize without sitting 2 feet apart from all your friends. Like we used to do during the pandemic. But people are choosing not to do so now. There's more to life than HN usernames. Welcome to the actual real world. Where you will eventually have to take responsibility for your choices despite your deep denial that your choosing to ignore social distancing is actually a subconscious reaction to feeling a lack of control or something and an intentional refusal to distance. That's why you politicize it.
- joezydeco 5y ago
  I agree. I have both Moderna doses and finished 13 weeks ago. I just came out of isolation after contracting Delta 12 days ago. It felt like a head cold and was done in 3 days. But the local health board said that my vaxxed family members were free to leave the house and go in public right away as long as they didn't have symptoms. But you're also possibly contagious for 24-48 hours before symptoms. The logic here is really confusing.
  - voakbasda 5y ago
    The conflicting information derives from political decision making, not scientific reason. Not confusing at all from that perspective.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > If the jab mitigates the symptoms but the (unaware) carrier can still transmit the virus to others, then doesn't that help the virus? You have assumed that "can" means "will do so at the same rate" Which is not true. So, no, it does not help the virus. Same question here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28151989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28151989
newbamboo 5y ago
“I think the problem we have is people — whether it’s the CDC or the people that are doing the briefings — their big concern is, they just want to get vaccinations up. And they don’t want to punch any holes in the story about vaccines. But we can handle the truth. And that’s what we should be getting.” Coming from Topol I find this particularly rich. He should include himself in that group. The breakthrough problem has been obvious for well over a month now. He has been one of those who have downplayed it. Besides Israel and other obvious international indications there have been notable incidence amongst medical professionals in the US. His podcast with Sam Harris, which I honestly could listen to is just one example of his participation in the groupthink. The downplaying of the vaccines’ lack of protection will have killed people, maybe not a significant number but the trolley lever was certainly pulled in that direction albeit for good (pro-vax) reasons.
randomopining 5y ago
Everybody should get vaccinated and then get it now. The current Delta is close enough to the OG version that your body can crush it and then get a stronger immunity towards the future lineage of the virus. If you stay in a bubble, by this winter there will be a variant that almost completely evades the vaccines and then you're back to square one. Basically we should be continuously getting immunity against the newest.
- NonContro 5y ago
  Why should people with natural immunity from previous exposure get it? Natural immunity provides broader protection because antibodies are generated for more of the virus, instead of just the spike protein in the case of vaccines. If there is negligible additional protection then why take the risk of vaccine injury? Why can't antibody tests be regarded in the same way as vaccination for 'passport' purposes? The CDC estimates about 110 million Americans have had COVID already. Why should they be vaccinated? Why not 'donate' the doses that would be have been used on them to other countries, to help people who have not been previously infected?
  - deegles 5y ago
    The science on this is clear, please update your stance. Natural immunity is not as protective as vaccine induced immunity. It is in fact 2.3x more likely that you will get reinfected while unvaccinated, and a stronger immune response from the vaccine means fewer people end up hospitalized. See: > Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccination https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm
    - peytn 5y ago
      From your link: > these findings cannot be used to infer causation Do you have more data to support your claims?
      - deegles 5y ago
mywittyname 5y ago
Is there any way to use this information to better protect one's self?
- nradov 5y ago
  In terms of self protection nothing has changed. Get vaccinated if you haven't done so yet. If you have any treatable co-morbid risk factor conditions such as obesity or hypovitaminosis D then take steps to resolve those.

19 points by dbroockman 5y ago

If the jab mitigates the symptoms but the (unaware) carrier can still transmit the virus to others, then doesn't that help the virus? It doesn't stop it, it gives it cover, a disguise.

tsjq 5y ago
similar to how in 2020, the asymptomatic persons were more risky (they wouldn't know they have the virus, and so spread more compared to symptomatic people who would take precautions); next the vaccinated people might be in the same category. once again comes to the spot: more vaccine coverage is needed.
HarryHirsch 5y ago
Let's be real: what helps the virus is politicians (actually commercial landlords, the politicians are just the mouthpiece) wanting to go back to normal. Proper public messaging would insist on continued social distancing instead of going back to schools and offices in the fall.
- newbamboo 5y ago
  Yes. The economic aspect has figured into calculations but there’s been no transparency around that fact. The news media are the worst in this regard. For those of us with very high risk loved ones who refuse to accept any facts that aren’t broadcast in full force through the usual dumbed down news outlets which I won’t name directly, it’s been a horrifyingly stressful month.
  - HarryHirsch 5y ago
    the usual dumbed down news outlets You mean NPR where recently Atul Gawande was calling the pandemic a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" and urged everyone to take the vaccine? He's right in a way, being vaccinated keeps you out of hospital, but it won't prevent you that much from catching the disease and developing post-covid syndrome. And you can still spread the virus in your community.
    - jhayward 5y ago
      > He's right in a way, being vaccinated keeps you out of hospital, but it won't prevent you that much from catching the disease and developing post-covid syndrome This is misinformation. From the data we have available, vaccination prevents at least 80% of symptomatic infections with the Delta variant. To characterize an 80% reduction in risk as “not that much” is simply trying to get people to give up on vaccines.
      - HarryHirsch 5y ago
        You see papers claiming an effectiveness against symptomatic infection against Delta of ~ 50 %, and the rise of cases in Israel as well as the Provincetown outbreak should really make us concerned. The vaccine still prevents hospitalization and death, so that's reason enough to take it. But on its own it isn't enough to get R_0 below 1. The way everyone is behaving, they are asking for outbreak after outbreak.
        newbamboo 5y ago
        Yes, it’s at 47% now if I’m up to date.
        chiefalchemist 5y ago
        Wasn't it up around 75% in Providence RI? Yes, an outlier but it's indicative of the potential.
        newbamboo 5y ago
        Guess it’s 42% for Pfizer according to this preprint.[1] That’s July, so presumably even lower now. I thought I saw 47% somewhere more official but can’t find it now. [1]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v... “ However, in July, the effectiveness against infection was considerably lower for mRNA-1273 (76%, 95% CI: 58-87%) with an even more pronounced reduction in effectiveness for BNT162b2 (42%, 95% CI: 13-62%).”
- Mattasher 5y ago
  Sweden "went back to normal" a long time ago. Their Covid deaths rate is near zero. The "it's bad so we need to x" reflex, where x is any of masking mandates, social distancing, or especially take kids out of school, is anti-science and anti-human.
  - Eldt 5y ago
    Didn't Sweden have a lot more deaths than their neighbours?
    - voakbasda 5y ago
      Small price to pay for herd immunity and normalcy, if it actually worked.
      - theodric 5y ago
        Spoken like someone who didn't die. Also ghoulish beyond belief.
        nradov 5y ago
        So far 99.86% of Swedes didn't die of COVID-19. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
        HarryHirsch 5y ago
        How many have permanently reduced lung function, vascular disease or are living with long covid? The death rate isn't the only metric, especially now with the vaccine.
    - nradov 5y ago
      What do you count as a neighbor? Sweden is 39th in the world by per capita death rate. Many other European countries have higher death rates, including some countries that took more extensive pandemic control measures. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
- nradov 5y ago
  You can't seriously expect people to continue social distancing. The virus is here to stay. It can't be eradicated because the vaccines aren't fully sterilizing and there are also animal hosts. The vast majority of us will eventually get infected regardless of what infection control measures we take. We'll just have to accept the risk and move on. Fortunately the vaccines are very safe and highly effective at preventing deaths.
  - blueprint 5y ago
    It's not that hard to go outside to cafes and still social distance - but people are not doing it. That's the difference.
    - nradov 5y ago
      It's sad how some HN users seem to live in bubbles and are just completely disconnected from the way that most regular people live. Humans are social animals and most won't continue social distancing regardless of the consequences. There's more to life than cafes. Most of us don't even have an outdoor cafe nearby. Also weather is a thing. You're welcome to complain that this is terrible and it shouldn't be that way. But at some point we have to put aside wishful thinking and exist in the real world.
      - blueprint 5y ago
        Sure, base your entire argument on knowing absolutely nothing about me. You can still go to your climbing gym and climb and socialize without sitting 2 feet apart from all your friends. Like we used to do during the pandemic. But people are choosing not to do so now. There's more to life than HN usernames. Welcome to the actual real world. Where you will eventually have to take responsibility for your choices despite your deep denial that your choosing to ignore social distancing is actually a subconscious reaction to feeling a lack of control or something and an intentional refusal to distance. That's why you politicize it.
joezydeco 5y ago
I agree. I have both Moderna doses and finished 13 weeks ago. I just came out of isolation after contracting Delta 12 days ago. It felt like a head cold and was done in 3 days. But the local health board said that my vaxxed family members were free to leave the house and go in public right away as long as they didn't have symptoms. But you're also possibly contagious for 24-48 hours before symptoms. The logic here is really confusing.
- voakbasda 5y ago
  The conflicting information derives from political decision making, not scientific reason. Not confusing at all from that perspective.
SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> If the jab mitigates the symptoms but the (unaware) carrier can still transmit the virus to others, then doesn't that help the virus? You have assumed that "can" means "will do so at the same rate" Which is not true. So, no, it does not help the virus. Same question here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28151989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28151989

newbamboo 5y ago

“I think the problem we have is people — whether it’s the CDC or the people that are doing the briefings — their big concern is, they just want to get vaccinations up. And they don’t want to punch any holes in the story about vaccines. But we can handle the truth. And that’s what we should be getting.” Coming from Topol I find this particularly rich. He should include himself in that group. The breakthrough problem has been obvious for well over a month now. He has been one of those who have downplayed it. Besides Israel and other obvious international indications there have been notable incidence amongst medical professionals in the US. His podcast with Sam Harris, which I honestly could listen to is just one example of his participation in the groupthink. The downplaying of the vaccines’ lack of protection will have killed people, maybe not a significant number but the trolley lever was certainly pulled in that direction albeit for good (pro-vax) reasons.

randomopining 5y ago

Everybody should get vaccinated and then get it now. The current Delta is close enough to the OG version that your body can crush it and then get a stronger immunity towards the future lineage of the virus. If you stay in a bubble, by this winter there will be a variant that almost completely evades the vaccines and then you're back to square one. Basically we should be continuously getting immunity against the newest.

NonContro 5y ago
Why should people with natural immunity from previous exposure get it? Natural immunity provides broader protection because antibodies are generated for more of the virus, instead of just the spike protein in the case of vaccines. If there is negligible additional protection then why take the risk of vaccine injury? Why can't antibody tests be regarded in the same way as vaccination for 'passport' purposes? The CDC estimates about 110 million Americans have had COVID already. Why should they be vaccinated? Why not 'donate' the doses that would be have been used on them to other countries, to help people who have not been previously infected?
- deegles 5y ago
  The science on this is clear, please update your stance. Natural immunity is not as protective as vaccine induced immunity. It is in fact 2.3x more likely that you will get reinfected while unvaccinated, and a stronger immune response from the vaccine means fewer people end up hospitalized. See: > Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccination https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm
  - peytn 5y ago
    From your link: > these findings cannot be used to infer causation Do you have more data to support your claims?
    - deegles 5y ago

mywittyname 5y ago

Is there any way to use this information to better protect one's self?

nradov 5y ago
In terms of self protection nothing has changed. Get vaccinated if you haven't done so yet. If you have any treatable co-morbid risk factor conditions such as obesity or hypovitaminosis D then take steps to resolve those.