5 ms·

Elon has been declaring so many things that are not supported by facts, I don't think we should believe him without objective third party data.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
lotsofpulp 5y ago
The only data worth looking at is if insurance companies offer lower premiums.
- tenpies 5y ago
  Exactly, Tesla premiums are very high and I think the biggest tell is how much of a dud the "Tesla insurance" business has been. They continue to be just a brokerage in a handful of states so they don't even underwrite policies. If the margins were actually good they would have gone national and began underwriting policies themselves by now. Insurance is literally free money when you have a risk that competitors assess incorrectly.
  - TheCraiggers 5y ago
    Are they high compared to other cars in the same price range and similar cost to repair? Remember: insurance rates aren't just based on how often cars get into accidents; those that cost more to repair after an accident will have higher rates, too.
    - TedDoesntTalk 5y ago
      Only for collision insurance. Liability insurance has no relation to repair costs.
- yigitcakar 5y ago
  Ex-insurance company sales manager here. I agree that the insurance premiums are a good indicator but they will stay higher than normal vehicles because of the way insurance works. Reinsurers buy the potential risks in bulk and the way it is priced is putting similar risks and assets in a basket and then comparing the data they have about event possibility of the risk. The big data usually gives a pretty good indicator of the total number of accidents, incidents that will happen. I have been away from the insurance sector for a couple years now, but before the electric car market was evaluated as its own class. This creates a huge problem because you can't distribute the claims optimally. If I simplify it you get (electric car insurance claims/electric cars that have insurance) + operation costs + profit %. Whereas in normal cars, your premium is decided based on the drivers age, previous accidents, car's age, car's color, the horse power, where the person lives, how much they drive etc. In the company I worked for we optimized the premium with over 200 data points. You can't use the same optimization regarding electric cars because the market is so small and the data isn't there yet. Moreover insurers increase premiums to be on the safe side.
  - yarntalk 5y ago
    Why can't you just calculate the premium based on 201 data points instead of 200, the 201-point being whether it's an electric car, hybrid, or regular car?
    - geoduck14 5y ago
      I think the "200 data point" line means "200 cars that crashed" and that there are too few electric cars around to do analysis on "electric cars with 30k miles driven, and owned by people without college degrees" or whatever- so they just look at "all electric cars" in one bucket.
      - yigitcakar 5y ago
        Exactly!
agumonkey 5y ago
I don't understand his obsession with FSD, it's only an icing on the cake .. he got tesla running fine, spacex .. and he cannot manage to be patient on the self driving front. Maybe some form of mania, euphoria of success..
- yigitcakar 5y ago
  I think it is because traditional auto manufacturers are catching up with the electric car game. No other company will bet their reputation on self driving cars, because their reputation is much more important than their electric cars' success. They can wait longer and try different variations until their electric car market grows profitable. Tesla on the other hand has to differentiate and stay ahead of the curve so it doesn't get trampled. That's why he is so obsessed with self driving.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - agumonkey 5y ago
    thought about this but it felt like a tiny edge for Musk after all he's done.. still plausible

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

lotsofpulp 5y ago

The only data worth looking at is if insurance companies offer lower premiums.

tenpies 5y ago
Exactly, Tesla premiums are very high and I think the biggest tell is how much of a dud the "Tesla insurance" business has been. They continue to be just a brokerage in a handful of states so they don't even underwrite policies. If the margins were actually good they would have gone national and began underwriting policies themselves by now. Insurance is literally free money when you have a risk that competitors assess incorrectly.
- TheCraiggers 5y ago
  Are they high compared to other cars in the same price range and similar cost to repair? Remember: insurance rates aren't just based on how often cars get into accidents; those that cost more to repair after an accident will have higher rates, too.
  - TedDoesntTalk 5y ago
    Only for collision insurance. Liability insurance has no relation to repair costs.
yigitcakar 5y ago
Ex-insurance company sales manager here. I agree that the insurance premiums are a good indicator but they will stay higher than normal vehicles because of the way insurance works. Reinsurers buy the potential risks in bulk and the way it is priced is putting similar risks and assets in a basket and then comparing the data they have about event possibility of the risk. The big data usually gives a pretty good indicator of the total number of accidents, incidents that will happen. I have been away from the insurance sector for a couple years now, but before the electric car market was evaluated as its own class. This creates a huge problem because you can't distribute the claims optimally. If I simplify it you get (electric car insurance claims/electric cars that have insurance) + operation costs + profit %. Whereas in normal cars, your premium is decided based on the drivers age, previous accidents, car's age, car's color, the horse power, where the person lives, how much they drive etc. In the company I worked for we optimized the premium with over 200 data points. You can't use the same optimization regarding electric cars because the market is so small and the data isn't there yet. Moreover insurers increase premiums to be on the safe side.
- yarntalk 5y ago
  Why can't you just calculate the premium based on 201 data points instead of 200, the 201-point being whether it's an electric car, hybrid, or regular car?
  - geoduck14 5y ago
    I think the "200 data point" line means "200 cars that crashed" and that there are too few electric cars around to do analysis on "electric cars with 30k miles driven, and owned by people without college degrees" or whatever- so they just look at "all electric cars" in one bucket.
    - yigitcakar 5y ago
      Exactly!

agumonkey 5y ago

I don't understand his obsession with FSD, it's only an icing on the cake .. he got tesla running fine, spacex .. and he cannot manage to be patient on the self driving front. Maybe some form of mania, euphoria of success..

yigitcakar 5y ago
I think it is because traditional auto manufacturers are catching up with the electric car game. No other company will bet their reputation on self driving cars, because their reputation is much more important than their electric cars' success. They can wait longer and try different variations until their electric car market grows profitable. Tesla on the other hand has to differentiate and stay ahead of the curve so it doesn't get trampled. That's why he is so obsessed with self driving.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- agumonkey 5y ago
  thought about this but it felt like a tiny edge for Musk after all he's done.. still plausible