5 ms·

Singapore also has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, at only 1.16 children per woman. Living in a controlled and apartment-dominated country seems

Singapore also has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, at only 1.16 children per woman. Living in a controlled and apartment-dominated country seems to crush the desire and ability to have many children.

f6v 6y ago
Correlation != causation. I expected HN readers to know that.
- read_if_gay_ 6y ago
  GP said it seems, and just because correlation doesn't imply causation doesn't mean everything that correlates literally cannot have a causal relationship.
  - Twisol 6y ago
    In other words... just because there's a correlation between things being correlated and things not being causally related, that doesn't mean that correlation causally implies acausality?
  - f6v 6y ago
    The default mode when operating with data is to assume there’s no causation. Doing otherwise creates room for too many misconceptions and erroneous interpretations.
    - read_if_gay_ 6y ago
      Clearly you can make a hypothesis though.
howlgarnish 6y ago
I suspect the fact that it's very densely populated and extremely expensive to live in has more to do with it. Couples can generally only afford to move out into their own apartments in their thirties, and the ancillary costs of schooling (tuition etc) if you want your kids to succeed rack up so fast that few can afford more than 1 or 2.
- ValentineC 6y ago
  > Couples can generally only afford to move out into their own apartments in their thirties It's also a cultural thing. Most people can afford to rent in their twenties, but plenty of families discourage it. Subsidised public housing is available to married couples, and to singles 35 and above — but the wait time for new public housing with a 99-year lease is 3-4 years [1], which probably also affects the birth rate. [1] https://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/infoweb/about-us/news-and-publications/publications/hdbspeaks/reduce-waiting-time-for-bto-flats https://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/infoweb/about-us/news-and-publicat...
ClumsyPilot 6y ago
Why did you choose those two variables out of dozens of others? If it's 'control' then why is birthrate high in many dictatorships? If it's apartments, why is birthrate decent in many ex-soviet countries full of apartments?
- read_if_gay_ 6y ago
  Lack of birth control maybe? Or relatively uneducated women?

f6v 6y ago

Correlation != causation. I expected HN readers to know that.

read_if_gay_ 6y ago
GP said it seems, and just because correlation doesn't imply causation doesn't mean everything that correlates literally cannot have a causal relationship.
- Twisol 6y ago
  In other words... just because there's a correlation between things being correlated and things not being causally related, that doesn't mean that correlation causally implies acausality?
- f6v 6y ago
  The default mode when operating with data is to assume there’s no causation. Doing otherwise creates room for too many misconceptions and erroneous interpretations.
  - read_if_gay_ 6y ago
    Clearly you can make a hypothesis though.

howlgarnish 6y ago

I suspect the fact that it's very densely populated and extremely expensive to live in has more to do with it. Couples can generally only afford to move out into their own apartments in their thirties, and the ancillary costs of schooling (tuition etc) if you want your kids to succeed rack up so fast that few can afford more than 1 or 2.

ValentineC 6y ago
> Couples can generally only afford to move out into their own apartments in their thirties It's also a cultural thing. Most people can afford to rent in their twenties, but plenty of families discourage it. Subsidised public housing is available to married couples, and to singles 35 and above — but the wait time for new public housing with a 99-year lease is 3-4 years [1], which probably also affects the birth rate. [1] https://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/infoweb/about-us/news-and-publications/publications/hdbspeaks/reduce-waiting-time-for-bto-flats https://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/infoweb/about-us/news-and-publicat...

ClumsyPilot 6y ago

Why did you choose those two variables out of dozens of others? If it's 'control' then why is birthrate high in many dictatorships? If it's apartments, why is birthrate decent in many ex-soviet countries full of apartments?

read_if_gay_ 6y ago
Lack of birth control maybe? Or relatively uneducated women?