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You have (somewhat) covered the fuel requirements by bringing in ISRU. That's fair, but I would remind you that ISRU is a research technology and is not even cl

You have (somewhat) covered the fuel requirements by bringing in ISRU. That's fair, but I would remind you that ISRU is a research technology and is not even close to producing enough fuel fast enough to supply a single mission to the Moon, let alone massive commercial mining operations across the solar system. But fuel is not the whole story, is it? You need equipment. That's coming from Earth no matter what way you slice it.

Kim_Bruning 6y ago
If we have research level technology now, it stands to reason that people will keep researching and improving it. So "Never" becomes "not for a while yet until we perfect this technology", which is a slightly shorter time-scale. That said I think that there might almost be a (chicken/egg) commercial demand for an actual lunar mining+fuel processing facility as is. Refueling of earth-orbit satellites could extend their useful lifetimes. And for the foreseeable future, yes (much of the) equipment would still need to come from earth. You can still get a big delta-V savings if you only launch the equipment into LEO, and then transport it onward using fuel mined on the moon. You save the cost of the-fuel-to-launch-the-fuel.
- flagrant 6y ago
  > If we have research level technology now, it stands to reason that people will keep researching and improving it. So "Never" becomes "not for a while yet until we perfect this technology" You cannot assume that just because we are researching a technology that it must be possible given enough research. We may do the research and find that it is not. > And for the foreseeable future, yes (much of the) equipment would still need to come from earth. The problem is that this is already essentially impossible. The mass requirements for a commercial scale mining operation are astronomical compared to the things we have been putting into space so far.
  - Kim_Bruning 6y ago
    I'll grant that at 13,500 t, a machine like the Bagger 288 might take a few too many Starship launches (at 100t/launch). However, I'm pretty sure one can attain reasonable turnover from something a bit smaller, especially for high value minerals. Maybe you wouldn't consider 100 tons of equipment a commercial scale mining operation yet. Which is fair enough. If you want to scale up to really start making money, of course you'll need to have your refining and construction capabilities in space too. This is obviously a big bootstrap problem! I do think that Falcon heavy and/or Starship are starting to make a small initial bootstrap viable, for someone willing to take the risk.

Kim_Bruning 6y ago

If we have research level technology now, it stands to reason that people will keep researching and improving it. So "Never" becomes "not for a while yet until we perfect this technology", which is a slightly shorter time-scale. That said I think that there might almost be a (chicken/egg) commercial demand for an actual lunar mining+fuel processing facility as is. Refueling of earth-orbit satellites could extend their useful lifetimes. And for the foreseeable future, yes (much of the) equipment would still need to come from earth. You can still get a big delta-V savings if you only launch the equipment into LEO, and then transport it onward using fuel mined on the moon. You save the cost of the-fuel-to-launch-the-fuel.

flagrant 6y ago
> If we have research level technology now, it stands to reason that people will keep researching and improving it. So "Never" becomes "not for a while yet until we perfect this technology" You cannot assume that just because we are researching a technology that it must be possible given enough research. We may do the research and find that it is not. > And for the foreseeable future, yes (much of the) equipment would still need to come from earth. The problem is that this is already essentially impossible. The mass requirements for a commercial scale mining operation are astronomical compared to the things we have been putting into space so far.
- Kim_Bruning 6y ago
  I'll grant that at 13,500 t, a machine like the Bagger 288 might take a few too many Starship launches (at 100t/launch). However, I'm pretty sure one can attain reasonable turnover from something a bit smaller, especially for high value minerals. Maybe you wouldn't consider 100 tons of equipment a commercial scale mining operation yet. Which is fair enough. If you want to scale up to really start making money, of course you'll need to have your refining and construction capabilities in space too. This is obviously a big bootstrap problem! I do think that Falcon heavy and/or Starship are starting to make a small initial bootstrap viable, for someone willing to take the risk.