6 ms·
With the success of Apple M1, TSMC and Samsung will grow faster than Intel. Taiwan,Korea,Japan and US will control the semiconductor industry in the near future
by guai888 6y ago
With the success of Apple M1, TSMC and Samsung will grow faster than Intel. Taiwan,Korea,Japan and US will control the semiconductor industry in the near future unless a game changing technology is introduced. Taiwan semiconductor companies's stocks are going banana after US slap sanction on SMIC. UMC stock has not changed much in years jumped 250% in last few weeks. (UMC invented foundry as service, then TSMC copy them)
- thanksforthe42 6y agoI'm only half kidding when I say Apple doesn't consider themselves a US company. They consider them Apple. It's not like they are cooperative like US automakers, and they have done China's will.
- guai888 6y agoChina CCP is a snake. Get in bed with them and they will bite you one day. It is just their nature. Apple will learn one day.
- birdsbirdsbirds 6y agoIf you look at Apple's apple, you will notice that it is already bitten. It was not the snake, but Eve.
- BlueTemplar 6y agoWasn't it Alan Turing ? (Though I guess he's kind of an 'Eve' of computing...)
- Daho0n 6y agoNo more so that any other big country. At least they don't bomb thousands of people a month.
- birdsbirdsbirds 6y agoHow near is your near future? Isn't China planning to achieve major progress until 2025? They aren't bound by patents in the same way as western companies. Why should they not be able to reproduce the knowledge? For nuclear energy, solar cells, moon rockets and high speed trains, they have already been successful.
- guai888 6y agoChina is weak in semiconductor industry and they simply do not have the capability to overcome the obstacle in 5 to 10 years or maybe never. Let me give two examples of obstacle. US has monopoly in the software tools that engineer use to design IC. Japan has the chemical that semiconductor fab foundry need to make IC. US now has slapped sanction on China's top fab foundry SMIC with intention to kill China's semiconductor industry. China's semiconductor companies's stocks are dropping stone while Taiwan semiconductor companies's stock are rising like crazy so a lot people are pessimistic about semiconductor companies in China. Semiconductor is a very expensive game to play. China has big domestic market but it is not large enough to sustain a semiconductor business. This is very different from other industries.
- AsyncAwait 6y agoIt's worth noting that the Chinese state is able to pool resources and direct a national effort in a way countries like Japan and the U.S. are not. It may take longer than 10 years but they'll get there.
- LdSGSgvupDV 6y agoThe bureaucracy in China is insanely crazy. I doubt that they have passion to wait longer than 3 years. Not to mention 10 years.
- birdsbirdsbirds 6y agoOnly knowing HN comments about IC design tools, I got the impression that they don't seem to be that good. Which means that China could come out ahead because they can work with better tools if they make them by themselves. And as far as I know, China is a huge supplier of chemicals for biological engineering. If they know that much about chemistry, is the gap still so big that they cannot transfer their knowledge?