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It’s important to distinguish between true case burden and diagnosed case burden. Testing is prone to variance due to behavior, test availability, development
by bransonf 6y ago
It’s important to distinguish between true case burden and diagnosed case burden.
Testing is prone to variance due to behavior, test availability, development of symptoms, contact tracing effectiveness, etc... I suspect their modeling efforts use a more principled measure than positive tests.
Without even seeing the data I would infer among all tests a high positivity rate (certainly double digit).
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoYou'd be incorrect in that inference. According to state data, the positivity rate in San Mateo County is 2.6% currently.
- bransonf 6y agoAh, thanks for checking. There are a few other hypotheses then: Testing volumes are low, meaning we fail to capture a sizeable chunk of cases. The testing strategy is bad. We’re testing people that are less likely to be positive. And possibly, the model is just wrong.