7 ms·

Also, the JHU map is a poor indicator, as they are clearly basing the colors on suspect data, as in this case in Nebraska, which apparently had negative new cas

by tghw 6y ago

Also, the JHU map is a poor indicator, as they are clearly basing the colors on suspect data, as in this case in Nebraska, which apparently had negative new cases yesterday. [1] https://www.dropbox.com/s/uakm0cfgn2hv94r/Nebraska.png?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/uakm0cfgn2hv94r/Nebraska.png?dl=0

gloriosoc 6y ago
Oh sometimes that happens because states make mistakes in reporting and want to correct them. I would guess that's the case here. It also happens in the other direction- big spikes are sometimes a backlog of cases all reported at once.
- tghw 6y ago
  While true, that map and a photo of an outdoor space with people in it are poor pieces of data to hinge your entire argument on. You completely failed to take into account people working from home, schools delaying opening and not having been in session since March or April, and all of the other measures that have been put in place to decrease transmission (masks, barriers, decreased social interactions, restaurant closings, other indoor spaces being closed, etc, etc, etc). Your conclusion is flawed because you left all of these factors out of your analysis.
  - gloriosoc 6y ago
    I don't think this could explain the huge jump in cases and then decline post-reopening in Fl,Az, and LA. They aren't being more careful now than they were in early June. Disney world is open, people are outright refusing to distance or wear masks, the beaches are packed and yet we are seeing a drop in cases.
    - rallison 6y ago
      > They aren't being more careful now than they were in early June. Source? This is a significant claim. Early June was a low point in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Lots of states were at peak reopening around then, as things seemed to be on the right track. For example, bars opened in early June in Florida. They closed on June 26th after cases started spiking. Louisiana was similar. The state started reopening May 15th. Later in June, bars were then closed back down again, and a mask mandate went into effect. In Arizona, the story is similar, with gyms, bars and movie theaters shutting back down in July after having opened in May. What sure seems to be the pattern is: things open up, cases rise, things close back down, cases drop. I'm not so sure that your "they aren't being more careful now than they were in early June" statement is accurate, and I think this is causing you to misattribute the cause of the drops in cases.
      - gloriosoc 6y ago
        Mmmm You can see the timeline of orders that were put into place and the correlation. Here is Florida https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/florida/36 https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirme.... No mask mandate at all. Disney world is open. Beaches are open. The only order was bars are shut down. Without other distancing or masks, it's hard to believe that would stop spread.
        rallison 6y ago
        Florida as a whole enacted mask recommendations in late June. Miami Dade county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 2nd: https://www.miamidade.gov/global/initiatives/coronavirus/emergency-orders/emergency-order-20-20-amendment-1.page https://www.miamidade.gov/global/initiatives/coronavirus/eme... Palm Beach county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 25th: https://discover.pbcgov.org/PDF/COVID19/PBC-EO-12.pdf https://discover.pbcgov.org/PDF/COVID19/PBC-EO-12.pdf Hillsborough county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 22nd (if I'm reading it right): https://web.archive.org/web/20200706143937/https://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/library/hillsborough/media-center/documents/covid-19/epg-order-for-face-coverings.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20200706143937/https://www.hills... Broward county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 8th: https://www.broward.org/CoronaVirus/Documents/EmergencyOrder20-21.pdf https://www.broward.org/CoronaVirus/Documents/EmergencyOrder... Orange county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 20th: https://www.orangecountyfl.net/portals/0/library/Emergency-Safety/docs/coronavirus/2020-23%20EEO.pdf https://www.orangecountyfl.net/portals/0/library/Emergency-S... Pinellas county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 24th: https://covid19.pinellascounty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Adopted-ORD-20-14.pdf https://covid19.pinellascounty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/0... In just this list, we're up to mask mandates that cover counties that account for 10 million people, 47% of Florida's population, and accounting for the densest population centers. A number of additional counties also enacted mask mandates, but it got a bit tedious listing them all out. In other words, in the June-July period, mask mandates were enacted for a majority of the population of Florida. In another comment, I critiqued this piece as being a shallow analysis. Your comment here is an example of that.
    - isabelc 6y ago
      In Miami-Dade County in Florida, it's not only bars that are closed but all indoor dining is not allowed. Restaurants had opened for dining for a short while but that was banned again in July. And masks are required in public everywhere, even outdoors. And a strict countywide curfew has been in place since July.
gloriosoc 6y ago
It's fixed now btw

by tghw 6y ago

gloriosoc 6y ago

Oh sometimes that happens because states make mistakes in reporting and want to correct them. I would guess that's the case here. It also happens in the other direction- big spikes are sometimes a backlog of cases all reported at once.

tghw 6y ago
While true, that map and a photo of an outdoor space with people in it are poor pieces of data to hinge your entire argument on. You completely failed to take into account people working from home, schools delaying opening and not having been in session since March or April, and all of the other measures that have been put in place to decrease transmission (masks, barriers, decreased social interactions, restaurant closings, other indoor spaces being closed, etc, etc, etc). Your conclusion is flawed because you left all of these factors out of your analysis.
- gloriosoc 6y ago
  I don't think this could explain the huge jump in cases and then decline post-reopening in Fl,Az, and LA. They aren't being more careful now than they were in early June. Disney world is open, people are outright refusing to distance or wear masks, the beaches are packed and yet we are seeing a drop in cases.
  - rallison 6y ago
    > They aren't being more careful now than they were in early June. Source? This is a significant claim. Early June was a low point in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Lots of states were at peak reopening around then, as things seemed to be on the right track. For example, bars opened in early June in Florida. They closed on June 26th after cases started spiking. Louisiana was similar. The state started reopening May 15th. Later in June, bars were then closed back down again, and a mask mandate went into effect. In Arizona, the story is similar, with gyms, bars and movie theaters shutting back down in July after having opened in May. What sure seems to be the pattern is: things open up, cases rise, things close back down, cases drop. I'm not so sure that your "they aren't being more careful now than they were in early June" statement is accurate, and I think this is causing you to misattribute the cause of the drops in cases.
    - gloriosoc 6y ago
      Mmmm You can see the timeline of orders that were put into place and the correlation. Here is Florida https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/florida/36 https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirme.... No mask mandate at all. Disney world is open. Beaches are open. The only order was bars are shut down. Without other distancing or masks, it's hard to believe that would stop spread.
      - rallison 6y ago
        Florida as a whole enacted mask recommendations in late June. Miami Dade county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 2nd: https://www.miamidade.gov/global/initiatives/coronavirus/emergency-orders/emergency-order-20-20-amendment-1.page https://www.miamidade.gov/global/initiatives/coronavirus/eme... Palm Beach county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 25th: https://discover.pbcgov.org/PDF/COVID19/PBC-EO-12.pdf https://discover.pbcgov.org/PDF/COVID19/PBC-EO-12.pdf Hillsborough county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 22nd (if I'm reading it right): https://web.archive.org/web/20200706143937/https://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/library/hillsborough/media-center/documents/covid-19/epg-order-for-face-coverings.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20200706143937/https://www.hills... Broward county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 8th: https://www.broward.org/CoronaVirus/Documents/EmergencyOrder20-21.pdf https://www.broward.org/CoronaVirus/Documents/EmergencyOrder... Orange county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 20th: https://www.orangecountyfl.net/portals/0/library/Emergency-Safety/docs/coronavirus/2020-23%20EEO.pdf https://www.orangecountyfl.net/portals/0/library/Emergency-S... Pinellas county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 24th: https://covid19.pinellascounty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Adopted-ORD-20-14.pdf https://covid19.pinellascounty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/0... In just this list, we're up to mask mandates that cover counties that account for 10 million people, 47% of Florida's population, and accounting for the densest population centers. A number of additional counties also enacted mask mandates, but it got a bit tedious listing them all out. In other words, in the June-July period, mask mandates were enacted for a majority of the population of Florida. In another comment, I critiqued this piece as being a shallow analysis. Your comment here is an example of that.
  - isabelc 6y ago
    In Miami-Dade County in Florida, it's not only bars that are closed but all indoor dining is not allowed. Restaurants had opened for dining for a short while but that was banned again in July. And masks are required in public everywhere, even outdoors. And a strict countywide curfew has been in place since July.

gloriosoc 6y ago

It's fixed now btw