6 ms·

At this point I'm becoming more worried about distribution rather than finding a working vaccine. One in six people (in the UK) said they'd refuse a vaccine if

by heidar 6y ago

At this point I'm becoming more worried about distribution rather than finding a working vaccine. One in six people (in the UK) said they'd refuse a vaccine if it became available, and another one in six weren't sure. (YouGov poll) It might make distribution to reach herd immunity difficult.

EnderMB 6y ago
I might be wrong on this, but wouldn't that still be fine in order to achieve herd immunity? I distinctly remember reading something that said 60% was the minimum threshold required to ensure that the virus spread as a greatly reduced rate.
- coldpie 6y ago
  It's all estimates, of course, but there's some good reading about what factors effect the herd immunity threshold here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics They estimate 50-83% vaccination threshold to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. I believe the citation is this study, but I admit my ability to read scientific papers is lacking: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32433946/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32433946/
- zmk_ 6y ago
  Right now they are saying that 95% had a substantial immune response. But we do not know whether it is substantial enough and lasting enough. Imagine that it is both for less than 70% of vaccinated. 5/6*0.7<0.6 (and yes, 0.7 is to prove a point).
bengale 6y ago
We need more information than that poll. Someone unwilling to take a brand new vaccine is not inherently the same as some loony anti-vaccer. It’s not obvious to me that it would be sensible to be first inline for one of these vaccines that have been developed so quickly.
- scurvy 6y ago
  Indeed. With a US presidential election in November, any vaccine delivered in October and touted by the current administration will be met with extreme skepticism, even by those who routinely take vaccines. Remember hydrochloroquine?
  - ovi256 6y ago
    >any vaccine delivered and touted by the current administration will be met with extreme skepticism That would be the most unfortunate irrational, anti-science behaviour that people could have, especially given the criticism of the same administration as anti-scientific.
    - scrollaway 6y ago
      It's 100% reasonable to doubt and verify anything coming out of the Trump administration, at this point. "extreme skepticism" is the correct response to have. No idea why you call that "anti-science" and "irrational". (Honestly: Crossing fingers the vaccine won't come out of the US so this situation is avoided)
    - spideymans 6y ago
      This administration literally touted drinking bleach to fix the Coronavirus. I'm not going to self-righteously criticize people that are a now more than a bit sceptical of medical claims coming from the Trump Administration.
      - Pinguinsan 6y ago
        I dislike your use of the word "literally" immediately preceding something that did not, in fact, literally happen.
  - chasd00 6y ago
    yeah that's really sad. Having a pandemic during an election year was a bad idea :) There's a big difference between the hydroxychloroquine fiasco and a developed vaccine. Hydroxychloroquine was something that showed early promise and seized upon by one political side but when it didn't live up to the hype it was seized upon by the other political side. A vaccine is developed over time and the results released for all to see at each stage in the development. It's much harder to over-hype a vaccine and I think politicians learned their lesson. IMO, in the US at least, if you refuse the vaccine then insurance should require cost of Covid19 treatment to be 100% patient paid.
WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
herd immunity isn't an all or nothing. HTT targets for influenza is 40% while SARS requires 80%.
- samch 6y ago
  This is a very good and important point. In a good year, if we can convince 40% of the eligible population to get a flu shot, imagine the challenge to get the >= 60% coverage needed to confer herd immunity. Just having a good, safe vaccine available isn’t enough. We have to convince an unusually large number (compared to influenza) of people to get vaccinated, and I worry about how hard that will be.
  - tacocataco 6y ago
    It's my opinion that the coronavirus vaccine may be different. Workplaces are going to require people to have the vaccine come back to work if only for liability reasons. I haven't run into workplaces requiring a flu shot and I've worked food service my whole life.
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    Vaccines required by workplaces or schools have higher compliance with the recommendations than The flu vaccine. COVID-19 vaccine could well be legally required at all schools, and potentially even legally required at workplaces as a condition of opening (certainly healthcare and allied fields would likely require it the way they do TB vaccines; the larger the mandatory population, the less compliance you need in the voluntary population to reach any given overall target.)
api 6y ago
This might be a case where we do in fact have to override the idiots and force it upon people. Endangering yourself with your own gullibility and stupidity is fine, but endangering myself or my loved ones? Nope.
- chasd00 6y ago
  I agree but consider Measles, much more infectious and hits children the hardest. As far as I know, there is no federal law requiring forcing a Measles vaccine on parents. On the other hand, Covid19 is affecting the economy and we're not having any of that in the US after the shutdown devastation so maybe a law requiring a vaccine is in the cards. edit: thinking about it for a second, i don't see a law requiring it working. The lunatics would go crazy, there would be states refusing to enforce the law. Maybe some sort of incentive would work better, like a federal tax credit for proof of vaccination or something.
- spideymans 6y ago
  There is absolutely no way the government is going to force this vaccine on people. Not in the land of the free. Not in the land of "face masks violate my rights" They could write all the laws they want - it'll be unenforceable without popular buy-in.
alex_sf 6y ago
Once a vaccine is widely available, I don't care. Losing some antivaxers is a gain to society anyway.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
LandR 6y ago
DOesn't this mean that the only people at risk are the people who don't get vaccinated? The rest of us will be fine, right?
- BurningFrog 6y ago
  Not really. A vaccine is never 100% effective.
  - Wowfunhappy 6y ago
    I thought the Smallpox vaccine was, or basically was? That's how we were able to eradicate Smallpox by giving everyone the vaccine.
    - BurningFrog 6y ago
      You only need to the vaccine to lower the spread to an unsustainable level, and the disease will fizzle out. The challenge for smallpox was more to do it in every remote corner of the planet.
BurningFrog 6y ago
A countermeasure could be that stores & restaurants etc will only allow vaccinated people to enter.
- anticensor 6y ago
  How would you implement that without causing an increase in subjective/race/religious discrimination? US Americans even oppose to national identity cards.
- gnicholas 6y ago
  I'm guessing the forcing function will be public schools. Students who have been vaccinated will be allowed back. Others will not (or will be required to wear masks). Schools might even require that entire families be vaccinated before the kids are allowed back.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

by heidar 6y ago

EnderMB 6y ago

I might be wrong on this, but wouldn't that still be fine in order to achieve herd immunity? I distinctly remember reading something that said 60% was the minimum threshold required to ensure that the virus spread as a greatly reduced rate.

coldpie 6y ago
It's all estimates, of course, but there's some good reading about what factors effect the herd immunity threshold here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics They estimate 50-83% vaccination threshold to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. I believe the citation is this study, but I admit my ability to read scientific papers is lacking: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32433946/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32433946/
zmk_ 6y ago
Right now they are saying that 95% had a substantial immune response. But we do not know whether it is substantial enough and lasting enough. Imagine that it is both for less than 70% of vaccinated. 5/6*0.7<0.6 (and yes, 0.7 is to prove a point).

bengale 6y ago

We need more information than that poll. Someone unwilling to take a brand new vaccine is not inherently the same as some loony anti-vaccer. It’s not obvious to me that it would be sensible to be first inline for one of these vaccines that have been developed so quickly.

scurvy 6y ago
Indeed. With a US presidential election in November, any vaccine delivered in October and touted by the current administration will be met with extreme skepticism, even by those who routinely take vaccines. Remember hydrochloroquine?
- ovi256 6y ago
  >any vaccine delivered and touted by the current administration will be met with extreme skepticism That would be the most unfortunate irrational, anti-science behaviour that people could have, especially given the criticism of the same administration as anti-scientific.
  - scrollaway 6y ago
    It's 100% reasonable to doubt and verify anything coming out of the Trump administration, at this point. "extreme skepticism" is the correct response to have. No idea why you call that "anti-science" and "irrational". (Honestly: Crossing fingers the vaccine won't come out of the US so this situation is avoided)
  - spideymans 6y ago
    This administration literally touted drinking bleach to fix the Coronavirus. I'm not going to self-righteously criticize people that are a now more than a bit sceptical of medical claims coming from the Trump Administration.
    - Pinguinsan 6y ago
      I dislike your use of the word "literally" immediately preceding something that did not, in fact, literally happen.
- chasd00 6y ago
  yeah that's really sad. Having a pandemic during an election year was a bad idea :) There's a big difference between the hydroxychloroquine fiasco and a developed vaccine. Hydroxychloroquine was something that showed early promise and seized upon by one political side but when it didn't live up to the hype it was seized upon by the other political side. A vaccine is developed over time and the results released for all to see at each stage in the development. It's much harder to over-hype a vaccine and I think politicians learned their lesson. IMO, in the US at least, if you refuse the vaccine then insurance should require cost of Covid19 treatment to be 100% patient paid.

WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago

herd immunity isn't an all or nothing. HTT targets for influenza is 40% while SARS requires 80%.

samch 6y ago
This is a very good and important point. In a good year, if we can convince 40% of the eligible population to get a flu shot, imagine the challenge to get the >= 60% coverage needed to confer herd immunity. Just having a good, safe vaccine available isn’t enough. We have to convince an unusually large number (compared to influenza) of people to get vaccinated, and I worry about how hard that will be.
- tacocataco 6y ago
  It's my opinion that the coronavirus vaccine may be different. Workplaces are going to require people to have the vaccine come back to work if only for liability reasons. I haven't run into workplaces requiring a flu shot and I've worked food service my whole life.
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  Vaccines required by workplaces or schools have higher compliance with the recommendations than The flu vaccine. COVID-19 vaccine could well be legally required at all schools, and potentially even legally required at workplaces as a condition of opening (certainly healthcare and allied fields would likely require it the way they do TB vaccines; the larger the mandatory population, the less compliance you need in the voluntary population to reach any given overall target.)

api 6y ago

This might be a case where we do in fact have to override the idiots and force it upon people. Endangering yourself with your own gullibility and stupidity is fine, but endangering myself or my loved ones? Nope.

chasd00 6y ago
I agree but consider Measles, much more infectious and hits children the hardest. As far as I know, there is no federal law requiring forcing a Measles vaccine on parents. On the other hand, Covid19 is affecting the economy and we're not having any of that in the US after the shutdown devastation so maybe a law requiring a vaccine is in the cards. edit: thinking about it for a second, i don't see a law requiring it working. The lunatics would go crazy, there would be states refusing to enforce the law. Maybe some sort of incentive would work better, like a federal tax credit for proof of vaccination or something.
spideymans 6y ago
There is absolutely no way the government is going to force this vaccine on people. Not in the land of the free. Not in the land of "face masks violate my rights" They could write all the laws they want - it'll be unenforceable without popular buy-in.

alex_sf 6y ago

Once a vaccine is widely available, I don't care. Losing some antivaxers is a gain to society anyway.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

LandR 6y ago

DOesn't this mean that the only people at risk are the people who don't get vaccinated? The rest of us will be fine, right?

BurningFrog 6y ago
Not really. A vaccine is never 100% effective.
- Wowfunhappy 6y ago
  I thought the Smallpox vaccine was, or basically was? That's how we were able to eradicate Smallpox by giving everyone the vaccine.
  - BurningFrog 6y ago
    You only need to the vaccine to lower the spread to an unsustainable level, and the disease will fizzle out. The challenge for smallpox was more to do it in every remote corner of the planet.

BurningFrog 6y ago

A countermeasure could be that stores & restaurants etc will only allow vaccinated people to enter.

anticensor 6y ago
How would you implement that without causing an increase in subjective/race/religious discrimination? US Americans even oppose to national identity cards.
gnicholas 6y ago
I'm guessing the forcing function will be public schools. Students who have been vaccinated will be allowed back. Others will not (or will be required to wear masks). Schools might even require that entire families be vaccinated before the kids are allowed back.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]