7 ms·

If we need 70% of the US population to get infected to reach herd immunity, and COVID has an infection fatality rate of .05%; this will kill about 1.2 Million p

If we need 70% of the US population to get infected to reach herd immunity, and COVID has an infection fatality rate of .05%; this will kill about 1.2 Million people. I, for one, am hopeful that we can get through this without that many deaths.

beezle 6y ago
Recent studies have shown that covid antibodies disappear very quickly in a fairly high percentage of positive cases. https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-ra...
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  Those have been discredited as not measuring all immune components. HN readers: there is no conclusive science behind anything reported about COVID-19.
  - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
    Thus proving the point that we can't expect herd immunity until there is valid evidence for it.
    - Fjolsvith 6y ago
      Then we should just treat it like a tough flu season.
      - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
        Except it's far worse than any flu season in recent history in the US, there aren't any treatment options or their immature, but yea...
        Fjolsvith 6y ago
        Correct me if I'm wrong, but they've never found a treatment for the flu, right? You get it, you tough it out. At least I've never been cured of a flu, despite many, many flu shots.
    - redis_mlc 6y ago
      Nope, the absence of evidence doesn't support anything that you say. Also, lockdown just kicks the can down the road in the US. Even welding doors shut like in Wuhan just means the epidemic continues after the lockdown ends. Ad nauseum until herd immunity.
      - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
        That's not how absence of evidence works. You're the one making the claim of herd immunity - not me. And also disrupting that claim, with: > HN readers: there is no conclusive science behind anything reported about COVID-19.
nkurz 6y ago
[correction .05% -> .5% deleted]
- socalnate1 6y ago
  Yes, you are correct. I meant .5% IFR

beezle 6y ago

Recent studies have shown that covid antibodies disappear very quickly in a fairly high percentage of positive cases. https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-ra...

redis_mlc 6y ago
Those have been discredited as not measuring all immune components. HN readers: there is no conclusive science behind anything reported about COVID-19.
- ntsplnkv2 6y ago
  Thus proving the point that we can't expect herd immunity until there is valid evidence for it.
  - Fjolsvith 6y ago
    Then we should just treat it like a tough flu season.
    - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
      Except it's far worse than any flu season in recent history in the US, there aren't any treatment options or their immature, but yea...
      - Fjolsvith 6y ago
        Correct me if I'm wrong, but they've never found a treatment for the flu, right? You get it, you tough it out. At least I've never been cured of a flu, despite many, many flu shots.
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    Nope, the absence of evidence doesn't support anything that you say. Also, lockdown just kicks the can down the road in the US. Even welding doors shut like in Wuhan just means the epidemic continues after the lockdown ends. Ad nauseum until herd immunity.
    - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
      That's not how absence of evidence works. You're the one making the claim of herd immunity - not me. And also disrupting that claim, with: > HN readers: there is no conclusive science behind anything reported about COVID-19.

nkurz 6y ago

[correction .05% -> .5% deleted]

socalnate1 6y ago
Yes, you are correct. I meant .5% IFR