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Due to decades of Deng Xiaoping's One Child Policy, China is a slow motion demographic car crash that's impossible to stop. China will "get old before it gets r

Due to decades of Deng Xiaoping's One Child Policy, China is a slow motion demographic car crash that's impossible to stop. China will "get old before it gets rich", and the days of 6% growth aren't coming back. I recommend anyone interested in geopolitics and the world over the next 30 years to watch this lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AvNT3vyzr0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AvNT3vyzr0 It's the best overview of the future wealth and strength of brutal Chinese dictatorship that I've come across.

tibbydudeza 6y ago
Well that video is kind of dated ... we have the Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage.
- loyukfai 6y ago
  There is a chance that the Americans can change that in a few months though. If so, Trump may become just a footnote in history, and hopefully a valuable lesson, at least for a few generations. Meanwhile, we people in Hong Kong and China can choose between "strongly support", "reluctantly support", "disapprovingly support", etc... Xi to continue as the head of PRC. Get out and vote. Ask the people around you to do so. Explain to them why it's important to vote. Discuss with them how it may affect them. Learn to discuss serious topics without a confrontational attitude. Cheers.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    I see no evidence that Biden would be tough on China. He seems more likely to want to appease and try to profit from it than anything else.
    - loyukfai 6y ago
      Was responding to the OP that the "Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage." Have heard that Biden would be soft on China/Xi because of his commercial interest, but I haven't done enough research to justify this viewpoint myself. It's kind of ironic for me, who identify both as a HKer and a Chinese, to hope that the world can get tougher on China, or Xi/PRC to be more exact. What they're doing is IMO damaging to the Chinese people in the long term, and let's not begin to discuss HK. OTOH, I also understand that every country, including the US, has her own dark side as well. But then, when you put everything on a balance... It's just overall a complicated, difficult and sad situation, as life often is. Cheers.
      - chrisco255 6y ago
        Aye, I respect your willingness to fight for China. I fear that it may be a lost cause but that's just from the outside looking in. The iron grip the CCP seems to have just looks like it's getting stronger. I hear that Britain will offer HKers citizenship in the UK. What are your thoughts on that?
        loyukfai 6y ago
        If by "China" you mean Xi or PRC, no I'm not (willing to fight for them). Am just speaking on humanitarian terms I think, I support everyone's freedom in pursuing a better life and/or happiness without infringing someone else's rights, or, put in another way, I support or seek to defend people whose rights are being violated... something along that line. As for the rumored UK offer, I guess that would be nice although personally I'm not keen on emigration. But if the situation keeps getting worse, who knows... Shall be thankful to the UK. OTOH it's going to be a problem for the UK on integration, if it comes true I hope HKers who leave for UK learn and do their best to contribute and integrate with the society... Also I'm concerned about the young people who're born after 1997 (the handover), they may not be qualified... Meanwhile, it seems Taiwan may accept political refugees from HK later. FWIW, many many HKers were refugees or descendants of refugees to begin with. Cheers.
      - ijidak 6y ago
        This. Complicated and difficult is absolutely the correct analysis. No country really holds any monopoly on fairness and justice. These debated often turn into... well this nation has this problem, and that nation has that problem. But the bigger problem is there simply has never been a way to structure a government that fixes all its citizens problems. Protests all over the world prove this. How many of the world's countries haven't had major protests in the last 5 years covering some sort of injustice -- whether perceived or real? Nevertheless, the below article may provide a glimmer of hope -- especially the paragraphs under the last sub-heading. https://www.jw.org/en/library/magazines/g201307/is-protest-the-answer/ https://www.jw.org/en/library/magazines/g201307/is-protest-t...
- michaelborromeo 6y ago
  I think the world more or less understands that American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control. I don’t think the world has forgotten about America’s massive military or its massive economy. To say Trump has “ended America’s standing” is extremely short sighted... Whether you like him or not, he has not changed in any material way the military or the economy or the political systems that form the foundation of America. Imagine the world in only 10 years from now. 2030. Will the American economy still be intact and humming along? Will the military still be well funded? Will the political system still be the same?
  - agumonkey 6y ago
    Am I the only one to consider US massive economy as a lightyear remain ? It really seems that US (politics or companies) lost their ways and can't handle their own power. Inertia is not good enough.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      The US economy has produced multiple new world-changing businesses every decade in living memory. The idea that it's solely coasting on inertia just doesn't make much sense.
      - agumonkey 6y ago
        Probably, I have only shallow gut feelings about this, but the financial blunders, the changes in education and technological differences around the globe (asia is becoming more and more independant and creative), the very very strange political state.. I'm not sure the thing will hold itself. I have this model where everything is non linear and if you stop claiming your position on the ladder, everything else will evaporate under your feet.
  - NineStarPoint 6y ago
    But what Trump represents to allies is not just an oscilating to conservative control. It represents the willingness of the american public to put someone in charge of foreign policy that has a complete disrespect for America’s allies, and a strong willingness to turn America more isolationist and less supportive of free trade. Ultimately, I don’t think Trump alone will really effect things long term though, no. If it becomes a pattern in the sort of person the conservative party elects, or even more so if the liberal part also swings that way, other countries could definitely start banding together more strongly against the American hegemony.
- sadsadsadsad 6y ago
  those words mean nothing. about time the US got back to taking care of itself and "off the world stage". trump will win no prob and be living in your head rent free another four years ;)
lgl 6y ago
This [0] is a much more interesting and enlightening documentary about China and Xi Jinping. It's in French but english subtitles are available. [0] https://youtu.be/7QDktp_i6eY https://youtu.be/7QDktp_i6eY
jackcosgrove 6y ago
Chinese birthrates would have fallen anyways due to increasing education and prosperity. The one child policy only accelerated the decline. When it was lifted, birthrates hardly budged. Every developed country is a slow motion demographic car crash. China is in a bad position, I'll grant, because the CCP's legitimacy depends upon demographic dividend-scale growth rates when the dividend has already peaked. Democratic countries have pressure release valves built into their political systems that China lacks.
- loufe 6y ago
  I think it's easy to say their "legitimacy" or "stability" depends on high growth rates, but I don't think that's necessarily the case. I would love to hear even one genuine expert on the subject make the case for a revolution in even the 30 years following a drop from insane growth back to earth.
  - Retric 6y ago
    China growth rate during recovery was actually depressed compared to several developing nations. So even the basic premise doesn’t fit the actual data. Long term compare the People's Republic of China (China) and the Republic of China (Taiwan) after the war based on per capita GDP and the mainland is still catching up. The CPP maintained power after completely wrecking the countries economy, so a period of stagnation seems unlikely to be a major issue. More recently you can see how the CPP is placing Hong Kong’s economy as a lower priority than increased control. While dictatorships like China can fall surprisingly quickly, I doubt slower growth is that critical of an issue.
  - jackcosgrove 6y ago
    I think CCP legitimacy does depend upon a social contract of rising living standards, compared to the Mao era when political idealism had more purchase. Moreover rising expectations beget rising expectations, and the genie is out of the bottle. I don't foresee a revolution either, rather a perestroika movement that will be forced from below but embraced out of necessity from above. As the video said, all of the energy needed to address domestic unrest will drain from China's ability to project their national interest.
asjw 6y ago
Hans Rosling explained very well why advancements in National wealth leads to smaller families (less children per family) and longer lives It's linked to becoming richer countries, which China has become https://youtu.be/hVimVzgtD6w https://youtu.be/hVimVzgtD6w

tibbydudeza 6y ago

Well that video is kind of dated ... we have the Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage.

loyukfai 6y ago
There is a chance that the Americans can change that in a few months though. If so, Trump may become just a footnote in history, and hopefully a valuable lesson, at least for a few generations. Meanwhile, we people in Hong Kong and China can choose between "strongly support", "reluctantly support", "disapprovingly support", etc... Xi to continue as the head of PRC. Get out and vote. Ask the people around you to do so. Explain to them why it's important to vote. Discuss with them how it may affect them. Learn to discuss serious topics without a confrontational attitude. Cheers.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  I see no evidence that Biden would be tough on China. He seems more likely to want to appease and try to profit from it than anything else.
  - loyukfai 6y ago
    Was responding to the OP that the "Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage." Have heard that Biden would be soft on China/Xi because of his commercial interest, but I haven't done enough research to justify this viewpoint myself. It's kind of ironic for me, who identify both as a HKer and a Chinese, to hope that the world can get tougher on China, or Xi/PRC to be more exact. What they're doing is IMO damaging to the Chinese people in the long term, and let's not begin to discuss HK. OTOH, I also understand that every country, including the US, has her own dark side as well. But then, when you put everything on a balance... It's just overall a complicated, difficult and sad situation, as life often is. Cheers.
    - chrisco255 6y ago
      Aye, I respect your willingness to fight for China. I fear that it may be a lost cause but that's just from the outside looking in. The iron grip the CCP seems to have just looks like it's getting stronger. I hear that Britain will offer HKers citizenship in the UK. What are your thoughts on that?
      - loyukfai 6y ago
        If by "China" you mean Xi or PRC, no I'm not (willing to fight for them). Am just speaking on humanitarian terms I think, I support everyone's freedom in pursuing a better life and/or happiness without infringing someone else's rights, or, put in another way, I support or seek to defend people whose rights are being violated... something along that line. As for the rumored UK offer, I guess that would be nice although personally I'm not keen on emigration. But if the situation keeps getting worse, who knows... Shall be thankful to the UK. OTOH it's going to be a problem for the UK on integration, if it comes true I hope HKers who leave for UK learn and do their best to contribute and integrate with the society... Also I'm concerned about the young people who're born after 1997 (the handover), they may not be qualified... Meanwhile, it seems Taiwan may accept political refugees from HK later. FWIW, many many HKers were refugees or descendants of refugees to begin with. Cheers.
    - ijidak 6y ago
      This. Complicated and difficult is absolutely the correct analysis. No country really holds any monopoly on fairness and justice. These debated often turn into... well this nation has this problem, and that nation has that problem. But the bigger problem is there simply has never been a way to structure a government that fixes all its citizens problems. Protests all over the world prove this. How many of the world's countries haven't had major protests in the last 5 years covering some sort of injustice -- whether perceived or real? Nevertheless, the below article may provide a glimmer of hope -- especially the paragraphs under the last sub-heading. https://www.jw.org/en/library/magazines/g201307/is-protest-the-answer/ https://www.jw.org/en/library/magazines/g201307/is-protest-t...
michaelborromeo 6y ago
I think the world more or less understands that American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control. I don’t think the world has forgotten about America’s massive military or its massive economy. To say Trump has “ended America’s standing” is extremely short sighted... Whether you like him or not, he has not changed in any material way the military or the economy or the political systems that form the foundation of America. Imagine the world in only 10 years from now. 2030. Will the American economy still be intact and humming along? Will the military still be well funded? Will the political system still be the same?
- agumonkey 6y ago
  Am I the only one to consider US massive economy as a lightyear remain ? It really seems that US (politics or companies) lost their ways and can't handle their own power. Inertia is not good enough.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    The US economy has produced multiple new world-changing businesses every decade in living memory. The idea that it's solely coasting on inertia just doesn't make much sense.
    - agumonkey 6y ago
      Probably, I have only shallow gut feelings about this, but the financial blunders, the changes in education and technological differences around the globe (asia is becoming more and more independant and creative), the very very strange political state.. I'm not sure the thing will hold itself. I have this model where everything is non linear and if you stop claiming your position on the ladder, everything else will evaporate under your feet.
- NineStarPoint 6y ago
  But what Trump represents to allies is not just an oscilating to conservative control. It represents the willingness of the american public to put someone in charge of foreign policy that has a complete disrespect for America’s allies, and a strong willingness to turn America more isolationist and less supportive of free trade. Ultimately, I don’t think Trump alone will really effect things long term though, no. If it becomes a pattern in the sort of person the conservative party elects, or even more so if the liberal part also swings that way, other countries could definitely start banding together more strongly against the American hegemony.
sadsadsadsad 6y ago
those words mean nothing. about time the US got back to taking care of itself and "off the world stage". trump will win no prob and be living in your head rent free another four years ;)

lgl 6y ago

This [0] is a much more interesting and enlightening documentary about China and Xi Jinping. It's in French but english subtitles are available. [0] https://youtu.be/7QDktp_i6eY https://youtu.be/7QDktp_i6eY

jackcosgrove 6y ago

Chinese birthrates would have fallen anyways due to increasing education and prosperity. The one child policy only accelerated the decline. When it was lifted, birthrates hardly budged. Every developed country is a slow motion demographic car crash. China is in a bad position, I'll grant, because the CCP's legitimacy depends upon demographic dividend-scale growth rates when the dividend has already peaked. Democratic countries have pressure release valves built into their political systems that China lacks.

loufe 6y ago
I think it's easy to say their "legitimacy" or "stability" depends on high growth rates, but I don't think that's necessarily the case. I would love to hear even one genuine expert on the subject make the case for a revolution in even the 30 years following a drop from insane growth back to earth.
- Retric 6y ago
  China growth rate during recovery was actually depressed compared to several developing nations. So even the basic premise doesn’t fit the actual data. Long term compare the People's Republic of China (China) and the Republic of China (Taiwan) after the war based on per capita GDP and the mainland is still catching up. The CPP maintained power after completely wrecking the countries economy, so a period of stagnation seems unlikely to be a major issue. More recently you can see how the CPP is placing Hong Kong’s economy as a lower priority than increased control. While dictatorships like China can fall surprisingly quickly, I doubt slower growth is that critical of an issue.
- jackcosgrove 6y ago
  I think CCP legitimacy does depend upon a social contract of rising living standards, compared to the Mao era when political idealism had more purchase. Moreover rising expectations beget rising expectations, and the genie is out of the bottle. I don't foresee a revolution either, rather a perestroika movement that will be forced from below but embraced out of necessity from above. As the video said, all of the energy needed to address domestic unrest will drain from China's ability to project their national interest.

asjw 6y ago

Hans Rosling explained very well why advancements in National wealth leads to smaller families (less children per family) and longer lives It's linked to becoming richer countries, which China has become https://youtu.be/hVimVzgtD6w https://youtu.be/hVimVzgtD6w