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Another naive anecdotal dismissal of probable geopolitical trends. There’s no escaping the fact that highly intelligent people willing to work harder than most

Another naive anecdotal dismissal of probable geopolitical trends. There’s no escaping the fact that highly intelligent people willing to work harder than most people in this culture supported by a sufficiently developed industrial base will be formidable. Given the cultural unity and the sheer size of population I would be shocked if we didn’t become a second rate power relative to them by 2050.

baybal2 6y ago
> There’s no escaping the fact that highly intelligent people willing to work harder than most people in this culture supported by a sufficiently developed industrial base will be formidable. Will they be? China's "talent fade" is very much real, and thanks to the event of past few years is at all time high. Higher than at the previous peak around 2010-2012. The fact that 2010-2012 "chicken run" worked so well for the generation of Chinese elites to exit before the change of power, and before Xi Jinping's mass crackdown only vindicates people trying to leave China now. People who made money under Xi are afraid of: 1. Xi losing power, and a repeat of what has happened 10 years ago. 2. Xi keeping power, and coming back in force, and a repeat of what has happened 10 years ago. > Given the cultural unity and the sheer size of population I would be shocked if we didn’t become a second rate power relative to them by 2050. How much time doesn't matter if the general trend still keeps. It doesn't matter how much engineers, scientists, and billionaires China will produce if they will leave China for US, and help Western businesses complete against their home country. Look, go to LinkedIn and find how many people with title "engineer" have Chinese sounding surnames working American multinationals. In some cases, it's up to 4 out of 5. Moreover, I say that this process is self-reinforcing with a feedback loop: the higher the concentration of low wage workers is in China, the more attractive the labour market becomes for American multinationals hiring Chinese high end talent. The more money they do, the higher does the trade imbalance get, and more debt the US can issue.

baybal2 6y ago

> There’s no escaping the fact that highly intelligent people willing to work harder than most people in this culture supported by a sufficiently developed industrial base will be formidable. Will they be? China's "talent fade" is very much real, and thanks to the event of past few years is at all time high. Higher than at the previous peak around 2010-2012. The fact that 2010-2012 "chicken run" worked so well for the generation of Chinese elites to exit before the change of power, and before Xi Jinping's mass crackdown only vindicates people trying to leave China now. People who made money under Xi are afraid of: 1. Xi losing power, and a repeat of what has happened 10 years ago. 2. Xi keeping power, and coming back in force, and a repeat of what has happened 10 years ago. > Given the cultural unity and the sheer size of population I would be shocked if we didn’t become a second rate power relative to them by 2050. How much time doesn't matter if the general trend still keeps. It doesn't matter how much engineers, scientists, and billionaires China will produce if they will leave China for US, and help Western businesses complete against their home country. Look, go to LinkedIn and find how many people with title "engineer" have Chinese sounding surnames working American multinationals. In some cases, it's up to 4 out of 5. Moreover, I say that this process is self-reinforcing with a feedback loop: the higher the concentration of low wage workers is in China, the more attractive the labour market becomes for American multinationals hiring Chinese high end talent. The more money they do, the higher does the trade imbalance get, and more debt the US can issue.