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I'm wondering how good fo a marker this is. We've already had people with significant heart attack symptoms refuse to go to the hospital, so is a similar trend

I'm wondering how good fo a marker this is. We've already had people with significant heart attack symptoms refuse to go to the hospital, so is a similar trend happening here with COVID? One thing I find a little suspect about this article, although I do respect Axios, is that hospital usage in Texas has not peaked yet and is currently rising (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texa...).

chasd00 6y ago
just to further complicate things and show how stats are all over the place, the Texas Tribune has hospitalizations flat (even slightly decreasing on average) since about May 1 https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.10297781.1282549010.1589667988-730639434.1588979647 https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronaviru...
- HarryHirsch 6y ago
  Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. The incubation period is 2 weeks, people grow sick enough to be hospitalized in week 3, and death occurs in week 4 or 5. That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths.
  - lhuser123 6y ago
    I know someone who was recently hospitalized(Texas, US) but was not counted as a coronavirus patient because the test were negative(they didn’t test for anti bodies). The illness resembles almost everything I have read about people with complications from the virus. Doctors & nurses when asked, they all say that for the anti bodies test, the patient would have to go some place else.
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths. Excess deaths aren't a reliable indicator of COVID-19 impact because of post hoc ergo propter hoc problems.
  - nradov 6y ago
    The typical incubation period is more like 5 - 6 days. A 2 week incubation period is possible, but very rare.
jbergknoff 6y ago
> https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texa... Am I missing something? It doesn't look like this has any data on hospitalizations. The graphs are all based on "projected" data.
- Munky-Necan 6y ago
  At the bottom it has hospital resource usage. It also includes what the resource usage of hospitals was, but it lags about a week behind the current date. That type of data is harder to get.

chasd00 6y ago

just to further complicate things and show how stats are all over the place, the Texas Tribune has hospitalizations flat (even slightly decreasing on average) since about May 1 https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.10297781.1282549010.1589667988-730639434.1588979647 https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronaviru...

HarryHirsch 6y ago
Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. The incubation period is 2 weeks, people grow sick enough to be hospitalized in week 3, and death occurs in week 4 or 5. That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths.
- lhuser123 6y ago
  I know someone who was recently hospitalized(Texas, US) but was not counted as a coronavirus patient because the test were negative(they didn’t test for anti bodies). The illness resembles almost everything I have read about people with complications from the virus. Doctors & nurses when asked, they all say that for the anti bodies test, the patient would have to go some place else.
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths. Excess deaths aren't a reliable indicator of COVID-19 impact because of post hoc ergo propter hoc problems.
- nradov 6y ago
  The typical incubation period is more like 5 - 6 days. A 2 week incubation period is possible, but very rare.

jbergknoff 6y ago

> https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texa... Am I missing something? It doesn't look like this has any data on hospitalizations. The graphs are all based on "projected" data.

Munky-Necan 6y ago
At the bottom it has hospital resource usage. It also includes what the resource usage of hospitals was, but it lags about a week behind the current date. That type of data is harder to get.